Heard in the Cheap Seats

With spring training right around the corner, I thought now was as good a time as any to throw out some predictions on the upcoming season. For the next few weeks, I will take each division one by one and provide an analysis of how I think things will shake out.

For the first installment, let’s take a look at the NL East. Full disclosure: I am a Braves fan.

The NL East promises to be a hotly-contested division. Every year we seem to speculate that the NL East rivals will beat up on each other so much during the season that only one team will come out of the division. With the Mets adding Johan Santana, the Braves having a quietly productive offseason and the Phillies addressing some critical flaws, this is certainly a three-horse race at the moment.

Prediction:

Maybe I am just talking myself into it, but I honestly believe the Braves will win the division this year with the Mets finishing a close second. I think the Mets lineup has some serious flaws and while the addition of Santana will pay dividends, it is important to remember he only pitches every five games. The Braves biggest flaw is currently in center field and it is only minor at that. The Phillies have a solid team, but I think the loss of Aaron Rowand will take its toll on the team. Rowand was the heart and soul of that team.

In the end, the Braves rotation depth will prevail and they will win the division with a 3 game lead on the Mets at season end. I’ll provide analysis following the standings.

Final Standings:

1.) Atlanta Braves: 95-67

2.) New York Mets: 92-70

3.) Philadelphia Phillies: 87-75

4.) Florida Marlins: 78-84

5.) Washington Nationals: 70-92

The Contenders:

Philadelphia Phillies:

Going into the offseason, the Phils biggest need was adding rotation depth. The team has failed to address that weakness thus far through free agency, though there has been speculation that the team is interested in Kris Benson. That being said, the team essentially added a frontline starter with the move of Brett Myers to the starting rotation. The combination of Cole Hamels and Myers at the top of the rotation stacks up well against the one-two punches of the Mets and Braves. After that, the rotation gets a bit dodgy. The Phillies do have one of the best lineups in the National League. Jimmy Rollins will be hard-pressed to replicate his MVP season, but he will produce a solid season. Chase Utley is a perennial MVP candidate, along with Ryan Howard. I think the Geoff Jenkins signing was a mistake and he will quickly fall into disfavor with the brutal fans of Philadelphia. Adding Pedro Feliz as the third baseman will prove to be a nice pick up for the team that had serious issues at the position last season. From a bullpen stand point, the Phils shrewdly added Brad Lidge. Mark my words: Lidge will be good for 35 saves this year at a minimum. Top to bottom, the bullpen should prove to be a formidable unit.

Atlanta Braves:

The Braves offseason was wrought with questions about rotation depth and the void left in center field by the departure of Andruw Jones. And let’s not underestimate the impact of long-time Braves GM John Schuerholz. But despite that, I believe the Braves had an extremely productive offseaon.

The addition of Tom Glavine adds much needed rotation depth. Say what you will about the veteran left-hander, but he still knows how to eat innings and win ballgames—a quality hard to find in number three starters. John Smoltz is still a frontline starter and Tim Hudson will be in the Cy Young discussion this year. If Mike Hampton can stay healthy, the Braves may be armed with the best rotation from top to bottom in the NL East. The Braves lineup is also extremely solid without a major weakness outside of lack of speed. Mark Kotsay, if healthy, will be a capable addition to the Braves lineup. But I have a hunch we may be seeing Jordan Schafer a bit earlier than expected. Mark Texeria for a full season will provide Chipper Jones with some much-needed protection Andruw Jones was unable to provide. The bullpen has some question marks. Rafel Soriano has ability to serve as a top-shelf closer, but he needs to avoid some of the tough stretches that plagued him last season.

The New York Mets:

The Mets offseaon was about one thing—adding an ace to the rotation. Up until a few days ago, it didn’t look like they would be able to get that done. But when Omar Minaya swooped in and snagged Johan Santanna, the Mets immediately changed the prospects of the upcoming season. The rotation went from suspect to solid. The Mets lineup still remains solid, but is not on par with either the Phillies or the Braves. Carlos Delgado is not what he once was, and Louis Castillo is severely overrated. In the outfield, Moises Alou will not put up the gaudy numbers of last season. In the bullpen, the Mets are in good shape, with Billy Wagner once again providing stability at the close spot.

The Pretenders:

The Florida Marlins and Washington Nationals simply cannot compete for the league crown this year. The Marlins have some outstanding young talent across the board, but the team cannot hope to go toe-to-toe with the big guns of this division. If the team can somehow find a way to hang on to the likes of Hanley Ramierez, Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham and Sirgeo Mitre, despite budget concerns, it can be competive in relatively short order.

The Nationals are a different story all together. The team is weak in just about every area, and may be staring a 90 loss season in the face.