The first round of the NBA playoffs has provided a plethora of lessons learned and plenty of intrigue.
The two series that most proclaimed experts felt would be the least competitive in the Eastern Conference turned out to provide the most hotly-contested series in the Eastern Conference thus far. Both the Sixers and Hawks were written off as mere bystanders on the path to a Celtics/Pistons clash. But those experts forgot to tell the Sixers and Hawks, because they put up a fight that just may have provided a glimpse into the future of the Eastern Conference.
Sure, the Pistons and Celtics will likely have their inevitable showdown to determine Eastern Conference supremacy. But both of those teams have a veteran core whose window is rapidly closing with each passing day. On the other hand, the Sixers and Hawks are following a similar model: a young athletic core paired with an established, veteran point guard to direct the troops. Sound familiar? It should. This is a model the Detriot Pistons have been using for years. In Chauncey Billups, the team has a solid veteran presence at point guard coupled with versatility at the remaining four starting positions. Lump all of that together with a tough-minded approach to defense and you just might have concocted a GM’s cocktail for championships. Goes down smooth huh? Both the Sixers and Hawks are a couple of pieces and years away from seriously contending for a championship. But the current playoffs may have provided a glimpse into the future of the Eastern Conference–a world where the Sixers and Hawks reign supreme.
And now, on to the lessons learned:
- Predictions Schmedictions: Chief among those lessons was that predictions are not my forte. Already, my Western conference champion has fallen victim to a team that simply understands how to win playoff basketball–the San Antonio Spurs. I still have a chance at my other prediction, albeit a bit of a cop out, that the Spurs come out of the West. I felt that the winner of that series would prevail in the conference, so at least that one is still alive (not looking too promising either). While the Spurs have looked old thus far, I won’t count out Tim Duncan and the gang until they are beaten on their own court.
- Don’t overemphasize the value of experience: In some circumstances (see San Antonio Spurs) playoff experience equates to playoff success. Because of this, we have a tendency to place too much value on the ability of a veteran team to win a playoff series based solely on the fact that it has fought more battles than its opponent. I was a victim of this trap when I thought the savvy and physicality of the Mavericks would wear down the Hornets and Chris Paul. In reality, Chris Paul was so much better than any player on the courtthat he single-handedly propelled that team to victory.
- The Nuggets are who we thought they were:In the infamous words of Denny Green, The Nuggest “are who we thought they were.” I’m pretty sure I could drop 30 on that defense. So while the Lakers won convincingly, I’ll jump on the bandwagon when they beat a team that actually believes in the concept of defense.
- Celtics Lack Go-to Guy: All season long the media trumpeted the success and harmony of the Big Three. And while the success in the season is all well and good, it all amounts to nothing if you can’t get it done in the playoffs. The problem with this Celtics team is it lacks a scorer that is willing to step up and get it done in the clutch. Garnett refuses to attack the basket and becomes a passive participant in the game come crunch time , Ray Allen has trouble creating his own shot and Paul Pierce does not have enough proven late-game ability to solidify his position as a go-to-guy. All season, these three have coexisted as equal parts of the greater whole–now that it is playoff time, one of them needs to step up and become the most important cog in the wheel.
- Dwight Howard is a Monster: We knew that Howard likes to pose as Superman, but I’m not sure many of us believed he actually had the ability to leap tall defenders in a single bound. Once Howard refines his offensive game to include a bit of finesse as opposed to pure power, he will be near impossible to stop. Not since a certain 7 foot 300-pound big man donned an Orlando Magic jersey have we seen a big man with this much upside.
Chris,
(Funny how that works
) I agree the Spurs CAN salvage this series at home but will they? As of now, Tyson Chandler looks like he can handle Duncan, but we’ll see how that holds up if Timmah gets more shots in San Antonio.
Bowen on Paul? Failure. When it comes down it, it’s really beginning to look like the Hornets are simply the more talented team between the two. Does that mean they’ll win the series and dethrone the champs? Maybe, maybe not. But they certainly look the part.
(I also posted this response at IF)
I don’t know that I agree that the Celtics lack a late game scorer. I think the problem is they have 2 and a half late game guys. The plays are made for Pierce, but Ray Allen and KG are expected to be late game heroes.
Still, I get what you’re saying about the C’s.
The Sixers and Hawks have a lot to be excited about, assuming Louis Williams and AC Law are able to grow into real PGs in the next couple of years.