Heard in the Cheap Seats

The first round of interleague play wrapped up over the weekend.  There were a total of 42 games played between the American and National Leagues.  The American League ended up on top with a 23-19 record.  In the month of June, three straight weeks of interleague play will take place.  Since 2000, the American League has won 6 out of the 8 years of interleague play, mostly by wide margins.  From 2005-2007, the American League compiled a 427-329 edge in interleague games.  In the last four years, an American League team has won the World Series three times, all three coming by dominating sweeps.  Every All-Star game since 1997 has been won by the American League, except for the infamous tie in 2002.  This has been more one sided than a sing-off between Britney Spears and Mariah Carey. 

Before this season began, most experts predicted more of the same.  Teams like the Tigers, Red Sox, Angels, and Yankees were expected to be not only the best teams in the AL, but in all of MLB.  I’m here to say that the experts were wrong. Forget about the 23-19 edge so far for the AL.  By the end of June, I am predicting the National League will come out on top.  Predicting the All-Star game and World Series winners is pointless right now.  What I believe is that the National League has finally ended the dominance of power by the American League.  Yes, it’s still early.  I’m aware of that.  However, I think there are just more quality teams in the National League.  Two of the so-called powers in the AL (Tigers and Yankees), have played terrible baseball most of the year.  Will it stay that way?  I doubt it. But, let’s look at this for a second.  The AL has 6 teams currently above .500, and the NL boasts 8. 

Forget records though, the NL is filled with teams playing good baseball, and getting it done with a young core of players.  In the AL, the Indians, Angels, and Rays fit into that category, and the Red Sox have some young arms and Ellsbury and Pedroia, but mostly these are veteran clubs.  The National League has teams like the Marlins, Diamondbacks, Phillies, Brewers, Dodgers, and even the Braves (led by Chipper Jones, but filled with young up and coming stars).  This is the main trend that I think will be responsible for a shift in power back to the National League.  The young stars in baseball, the ones who you see already putting up the numbers, mostly reside in the NL.  You can throw names at me from the American League, and they absolutely exist, but just look at the stats.  Seriously, just study them for awhile.  If you go by pure numbers, the NL has not only way more young stars, but just better players overall for a change. 

There are currently 30 players hitting above .300 in the NL, compared to 14 in the AL.  Traditionally, offensive numbers in the AL are higher because there is no luxury of having the pitcher come to bat.  Even more telling though is the fact that 20 of those 30 are under the age of thirty, compared to 6 players under 30 in the AL.  The NL has 24 of the top 32 home run hitters in baseball so far.  They have a guy in Chipper Jones still hitting over .400 and another in Lance Berkman receiving talk of a possible triple crown.  So you might think all this just means that the pitching in the AL is better.  Wrong again. 

The top 10 ERA’s in baseball are split right down the middle between the leagues, and that does not even include Johan Santana, Brandon Webb, or Jake Peavy in the NL.  The top 5 in the NL are all under the age of 27, too.  Numbers are not everything, I realize.  So, let’s take it a step further.

Break down position by position, and the NL for the first time in awhile has a decided advantage.  I’m not going to run through every single name, you can look at it yourself but I’ll do some of the work for you.  If a true all-star team was picked, it wouldn’t even be close.

 1^st Base- Even to be fair I will include all those DH’s in the AL that are listed as first basemen.  In the NL there is Berkman with a possible triple crown, Pujols crushing it again, Ryan Howard is the best young power hitter in the game, Derek Lee is always hitting and fielding at a high level, a Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, James Loney and on and on. In the AL there is Youkilis, Ortiz(shouldn’t count), Kotchman, Morneau and not much else.  Huge edge to the NL.

2^nd Base- Uggla and Utley are the class of the NL here and I would say Pedroia and Polanco are the same in the AL.  You can go through the list. There are some pretty good players in both leagues.  I give a slight edge to the NL because no one is better than Utley.

3^rd Base- The future hall of famer Chipper Jones leads the NL here along with David Wright, Aramis Ramirez, and Garret Atkins.  In the AL you have Chone Figgins, an out of shape Miguel Cabrera, A-Rod, Mike Lowell, and Alex Gordon.  Chalk another one up for the National League.

Shortstop- There are 7 shortstops in the NL currently hitting above .300 compared to one in the AL.  That one is Jeter so that helps the AL’s cause.  But, with Escobar, Rollins, Ramirez, Furcal, Tulowitski, Reyes, Tejada, etc. there are way too many quality shortstops in the NL to not give them the edge

.Outfield- I really don’t feel like running through every outfielder, so let’s just say that there are great outfielders in both leagues and call it draw.  Fair enough?  Too bad, that’s what we’re doing.

Catcher- The AL has young guys like Martinez and Mauer along with trusty veterans Pierzynski, Varitek, and Pudge.  The NL is led by mostly young catchers like Molina, McCann, Martin, and Soto.  I give a slight edge right now to the AL, but that will change in the next couple years.

Starting Pitcher- I will argue that the NL has way more pitching depth at this point.  If we go by this year, and in case you haven’t noticed that’s what I am doing, the advantage goes to the NL.  The American League so far has been led by Cliff Lee, Dice-K, Wang, Carmona, Grienke, and Saunders.  There are obviously other very good ones like Lackey (who has just returned), Halladay, Beckett, and Sabathia. Over in the NL, rookie phenom Volquez looks to be the real deal, along with, Webb, Peavy, Hudson, Santana, Hamels, Zambrano, Haren, Sheets, and on and on.  I will take the NL’s list over the AL any day.

Closer- I am not going to break down entire bullpens, so deal with it.  I will stick to the guys who get the limelight.  In the AL we have K-Rod, Papelbon, Rivera, Nathan, Percival, Jenks, and many other pretty damn good closers.  That is an impressive list.  A lot of World Series rings there also, so that helps.  Forget about the amount of saves, to me the 3 best closers in the NL are Wagner, Lidge, Kerry Wood.  Yes, that Kerry Wood.  Possibly joining them will be John Smoltz if he can stay healthy, but either way the American League is stronger here.   

So there you have it.  After checking out the breakdown, it seems clear that we are seeing a shift towards some National League dominance in the coming years.  This stuff usually goes in cycles.  We will see how it plays out, but one gauge could end up being the interleague records when it all shakes out.  Hey, maybe an NL team might actually end up with home field advantage in the World Series!