Heard in the Cheap Seats

There is an entire industry predicated on projecting the futures of 19-year old boys that show athletic promise.  These projections are obsessed over by scouts and fans alike (unless you work for the Yankees, then you just spend hundreds of millions of dollars to get better).  And for good reason.  The depth of a team’s farm system is often a good indicator of future success.  Of course, some players will not live up to their potential and others will take us by surprise, but the teams that are the most successful at cultivating young talent are the ones that consistently win at the big-league level.

Look no further than last year’s World Series matchup for proof.  The Phillies’ nucleus consists almost solely of players that were drafted by the Phillies and escalated through the ranks.  Cole Hamels, Jimmie Rollins, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley is a brag brook any organization would be proud to call its own.  On the other side, the Rays too consisted almost entirely of homegrown, young talent.   Is it any wonder then that these were the last two teams standing come October?

So how do the Phillies fare when it comes to the depth of their current farm system?  Keith Law of Scout’s Inc. and espn.com fame has just released his 2009 organizational and prospect rankings.  The Phillies come in at a very respectable number 11 with the top prospect being Jason Donald at #48.  In their own division, both the Atlanta Braves and the Florida Marlins have higher-rated systems.  But the Phillies’ numbers are skewed a bit.  For starters, the aforementioned dearth of talent that is at the major league level undoubtedly depleted the ranks.  But to have that number of prospects develop into top-performers at the major league level is a rare feat.  The #11 ranking does not take into account to what extend current teams have built their rosters with homegrown talents.  In that category, the Phillies can stand toe-to-toe with any organization.

In addition, Law’s rankings only value what is a known commodity.  For example, the Phillies have several raw talents at the lower-levels of their minor league system that could turn into top-level prospects before the year is complete.  Domnic Brown and Michael Taylor come to mind in that department.

Recent history suggests that the Phillies have a knack for identifying top talent.  But more than that, the success of the big-league club illustrates that once the Phils acquire that talent, they are no slouches at developing talent either.  While some may look at the #11 ranking and feel discouraged by the presence of two-division rivals in the top 10, I first look at the current roster before passing judgment.  The Phillies farm system is strong and track record indicates that young talent will continue to flood Philly. 

Other Phillies Notes: In other Phillies notes, it looks like the team is continuing its search for a right-handed bat to add to the bench.  Growing weary of Nomar’s indecision, the team has turned its attention to another grizzled vet—Moises Alou.  While Alou would add some nice pop off the bench, his health would be a question as would his desire to except a limited role.

The Philly professional sports scene has been quite busy recently.  Because of that, we have yet to post anything on this site regarding the local college sports scene.  Well, that ends now.  What better time to post than just prior to #21 Villanova doing battle with #3 ranked UCONN and their usual collection of athletes with shady backgrounds.  This is going to be another physical Big East tussle, like most games in the best conference in the land are.  For whatever reason, ‘Nova has had Connecticut’s number recently.  They have won the last two meetings, and 3 of the last four and that has had UCONN players like Jeff Adrien talking “payback”.  Villanova likes to play physical pressure defense, but UCONN’s defense is almost as tough.  I look for this game to be ugly at times, nasty most of the time, and will probably end with both teams in the 60’s.  Dante Cunningham has become an absolute beast for the Wildcats, but he will have a tough go against the size and length of the Huskies.  Connecticut is a tough place to go into and win, but something tells me Villanova will be up to the task tonight.  Villanova is a little bit Jekyll and Hyde when you watch them.  There are stretches where they look unstoppable on both ends of the floor, and then their offense goes stagnant and they are forcing terrible shots and can’t buy a basket.  I think we see the good Villanova tonight.  They will be ready for a tough game, and Scottie Reynolds will need to have another great game against the Huskies.  If he struggles, ‘Nova fans could be in for a disappointment.  If Villanova is relentless on defense and controls the defensive boards and can get a big night out of Reynolds shooting the ball, this will end up being a signature victory for the Villanova season.

PREDICTION: ‘NOVA 68 – UCONN 64

The Phillies have had a productive off season coming to terms with most of their arbitration eligible players. Add to that the addition of Raul Ibanez to replace Pat Burrell, and it looks like the Phils are poised to make a run at defending their World Series trophy. The one player that they have not come to terms with and will go to arbitration with is Ryan Howard. This does not come as a surprise to anyone. Ryan Howard has asked for $18 million this year, and the Phillies offered $14 million. That’s a huge difference! The asking price by Howard is the third highest ever in arbitration. The big question is, will he get the money? Beyond that, is this all just leading to Howard’s inevitable departure once he is eligible for free agency in 2011. Last year, Howard won his arbitration case when he asked for $10 million and the Phillies came to the table with $7million. Points can be argued on both sides, but in my opinion, it’s tough to justify spending $18 million for Ryan Howard.

Unfortunately I think he will get that money in arbitration, and eventually will drive the price up so high that only the Yankees or the Red Sox will be able to afford him on the free agent market. Obviously, I don’t begrudge Howard’s right to get as much money as he can, and if he believes he is worth more money than Albert Pujols he is entitled to believe that. On the positive side Ryan Howard is a guy who has unmatched power, led the majors in RBI and HR, won an MVP in 2006 and finished 2^nd in 2008, and almost single handedly carried the Phillies to a NL East crown this past September. On the negative side he is a poor fielding first baseman, his OBP dropped 43 points this past year, his SLG pct. dropped 41 points, and he hit barely .200 up until the summer months. Here’s another interesting bit of stats from last year:

AB       R     HR    RBI   AVG  OBP   SLG

Home   299     59     26    75   .261  .360  .572

Away    311     46     22    71   .241  .317  .514

Now, those numbers may not seem like a lot, but in some critical areas there are huge differences when Howard hits in hitter friendly Citizens Bank Park versus his numbers on the road. It just doesn’t seem to me like Howard should see an $8 million raise, especially in these economic times. I don’t want to make this seem like I think Ryan Howard doesn’t deserve to be paid a high salary, because he most certainly does. I just don’t like where this is going.

It seems obvious that he is getting as much money as he can from the Phils now, and when free agency hits he will have the grounds to demand a monstrous salary. A salary that the Phillies will almost certainly not be willing to pay, nor should they. They do not have the type of money where they can afford to throw a quarter million dollars a year at their first baseman and expect to field a winning team. It’s hard to compare a long term contract like what Albert Pujols signed in 2004 to a one year arbitration salary, but in this case I think you can. Pujols is easily the best first baseman in baseball, so he is part of what determines the market. His contract averages out to about $14 million per season, and he will likely look for an extension far beyond that. But, all signs are pointing toward the fact that Ryan Howard and his agent believe his value surpasses that of Pujols. If he wants $18 million now, I can’t even imagine what his asking price will be in free agency. Pujols is a far better player, just look at the numbers. He has done it with almost no protection as well. I will be interested to see how Howard’s case breaks down. What are the true factors that the arbitrator will look at to determine Howard’s value? That remains to be seen. Like I said, I think Howard will get his money. This is the one reason why, even though they are within the rules, the Yankees signing players like Teixiera to the astronomical figures that they do, can be dangerous for baseball.

It is the reason why a player like Ryan Howard will then turn around and use that ridiculous contract as a barometer of what they are worth, which doesn’t make sense since the value of that contract is not an accurate gauge of what the true market value is. I would love to see Ryan Howard in a Phils uniform for a long time, but something tells me this upcoming arbitration hearing is just another sign that we may only enjoy his power hitting for 2 more seasons. It all remains to be seen.

We’ve reached the halfway point of the NBA season, and as usual, the so-called NBA experts are putting in their votes for midseason awards and failures.  Over at espn.com, the vogue pick for biggest disappointment to date is our very own Philadelphia 76ers. 

The general school of thought is that coming into this season; the team was saddled with lofty expectations and considered by many as a team that could finish in the top half of the Eastern Conference.  If the playoffs were to start today, the Sixers would get in as the seven seed with a 20-21 record and therefore are considered a bust.   But should this really be classified as a disappointment or should the pundits be taking the blame for inaccurately labeling this team?

Of course, if you asked that question three weeks ago the Sixers would have to be considered a monumental disappointment.  The team was languishing well below .500 and the prospects did not look good for improvement with the star player sidelined with an injury.  But out of seemingly nowhere, the team recalled what sparked its run to the playoffs last year-superior athletic ability, aggressive defense and hustle.  It took a coaching change and the injury to Elton Brand to make it happen, but the Sixers appear to be getting back to that style of play.

With Brand’s return to the lineup on Saturday, the team has an opportunity to prove it can gel the low-post scorer into its frenetic style of play.  It is no coincidence that they waited until Saturday to bring him back to the lineup rather than rushing him back on Monday.  The five-day layoff is the perfect opportunity to have a string of practices with the goal of getting Brand, and his teammates, accustomed to playing together.  Brand was healthy enough to return to the lineup on Monday but intentionally held out to allow ample practice time.  Only after he has been back in the lineup for two weeks can we accurately judge whether this team is a disappointment or not. 

In an honest assessment of the teams sitting above the Sixers, only the Miami Heat seem to be within the Sixers grasp and maybe the Atlanta Hawks.  Can you envision the Sixers overtaking the Celtics, Cavs, Pistons or Magic?  Didn’t think so.

While the Sixers have not quite lived up to expectations, they are far from the disappointment that the espn.com experts portray.  In fact, the Sixers are just now starting to play at the level that should be expected of them at this stage of their development as a team.  The disappointment label should be reserved for a team like the Washington Wizards.

Despite a valiant and furious comeback during the late stages of the game, the Sixers came up just short today against the Dallas Mavericks—ending their winning streak at 7.  Dirk Nowitzki provided the dagger with a fall away jumper as time expired to break a 93-93 tie.  

The Sixers looked sluggish through much of the third quarter and early in the fourth, allowing the Mavs to get out to a 13-point lead.  But as seems to be a trait of this team, they fought back with a late-game rally propelled by their newfound ability to shoot the three. 

 Positives in the game:

 – The Sixers continued to shoot the three-ball effectively, led  by a 3-3 effort by Andre Iguodala.  While I am encouraged by this sudden turnaround, I get the feeling that it is a little fluky.  You don’t go from an atrocious shooting team to a respectable one in a matter of days.  A few players have found their stroke in recent games, but I would expect a statistical correction shortly.

– Royal Ivey continues to get meaningful minutes and capitalize on those opportunities.  I like his decision-making and ability to stretch the defense.  He is not potent from beyond the arc by any stretch, but he at least has to be respected.

 –   The Sixers played well defensively when it came to slowing down Dirk.  While he did have 23 points, it came on 7-23 shooting.  As always though, Dirk was able to get to the line.

 – Reggie Evans put in a solid effort today on defense and on the glass.  His workhorse effort was a big part of the reason why the Sixers were able to claw their way back into the game.

 – I am starting to see some improvement on how the Sixers move without the ball.  Early in the year, they had spacing issues and tended to stand around and watch as one guy tried to create.  They still fall into lapses of that mentality, but are showing improvement.

 – A very good effort out of Lou Williams tonight.  He was able to knock down open looks and finish at the hoop.  This guy has a knack for scoring the basketball. 

Negatives for the game:

– The perimeter defense in this game was awful.  I realize that Jason Kidd is not a very reliable shooter, so the Sixers may have been content to let him shoot from out there.  But at some point, somebody has to get a hand in his face. 

 – Iggie needs to pick his spots when he looks to create.  He is turning the ball over far too frequently and it is usually a result of him forcing the issue.

– The free throw shooting today was poor as usual.  Solid NBA teams do not shoot 66% from the line.  That needs to improve.

 Overall the Sixers did not turn in their best effort and saw their win streak halted at 7.  The question now becomes: can this team continue its solid play when Brand returns to the lineup?

 My fear is this: the team is not as good as its been playing in the last few games.  Because of this, Brand will be held accountable to an unfair benchmark for success.  At some point, this team was bound to come back to earth and it looks like that earth landing might just happen to coincide with the return of Elton Brand to the lineup.

It happened again.  I was expecting to come on here fresh off a celebration hangover.  I was expecting to be writing about another Super Bowl trip.  I was expecting to be writing about McNabb and Reid having a chance to cement their legacies.  Instead, we are all left with the stench of another NFC Championship defeat.  This was the fourth such defeat in 5 opportunities under Andy Reid.  I am glad my brother broke down what happened in the game, because I don’t think I have it in me.  I have so much to say, and yet I can’t say anything.  For some reason, it seems like each one of these losses is becoming more painful.  Maybe it’s because with each loss, the window may have closed a little more or has completely shut.  People who are not from the Philadelphia area always ask why we care so much.  There are plenty of explanations, but all I know is we care.  I know that the way I feel today, is the way many are feeling in the area. I know I am not the only one who lost the bounce in my step, who can’t read the paper or watch ESPN, and who just keeps wondering when this feeling will go away.  I believe that the Eagles are better than the Arizona Cardinals, but they got beat fair and square, and that’s the disappointing part.  There will be plenty of time in the off season to discuss all that happened this season, but right now I don’t want to open that box.  We all have tons of questions and tons of thoughts regarding this team.  Either way, this season came to a bitter end.  An end that a week ago we thought wouldn’t come, and yet maybe deep down we knew it would.  It always seems to.  We just want one Lombardi Trophy, and we will have to wait yet again.  The Phillies winning the World Series was great for the city, but I believe nothing would compare to the euphoria of an Eagles Super Bowl victory.  And so, we wait.  We wait at least another year.  But, we Eagles fans will definitely be back like always because we care, and we cheer, and we love the Eagles.  And maybe, just maybe, someday we will be the ones celebrating.

After a night of restless sleep and plenty of contemplation, I think I have the stomach to write about this game. 

Quick-Hit Reactions:

– Where was that heralded Eagles’ secondary?

Coming into this game, you had to think that the Eagles would do a better job of containing Larry Fitzgerald and the rest of the Cardinals’ receivers.  With as much talent as the Eagles have in their secondary and as much money as they have spent on high-priced free-agents (Asante Samuel anyone) it should have been enough to slow down Larry Fitzgerald.  It wasn’t.  Fitzgerald torched the Eagles’ secondary to the tune of 9 receptions for 152 yards and 3 TDs.  Three of those catches, including one TD, came on the Cards’ signature “drag play.”  In this play, Fitzgerald starts on one side of the field and drags across to the opposite side, using one of his teammates as a pick.  On both occasions, it looked as though Samuel tried to undercut the route.  Samuel is a solid player that did his share to put the Eagles in this position, but he needs to focus on lock-down coverage rather than intercepting every pass thrown his way.  I am starting to wonder whether he gives back as many plays as he takes.  Despite all of this criticism, the Eagles secondary can only be expected to cover these receivers for a short period of time before one springs loose.  The drag play is a slow-to-develop play as was the trick play TD to Fitzgerald, which brings me to my next point…

– Where was the pass rush?

In evaluating this game early in the week, I stated that my biggest concern was Warner’s ability to neutralize the blitz by getting the ball out quickly.  In my opinion, this was the single biggest factor in the Cardinals winning the football game.  The Eagles simply could not get a consistent pass rush on Warner and he made them pay all day long.  Neither of those drag plays or the trick play happen if the Eagles are getting a consistent pass rush. 

In the first matchup, the Eagles did not blitz all that much in an attempt to contain Fitzgerald.  In yesterday’s game, the Eagles seemed to abandon that philosophy.  Far be it from me to point the finger at Jim Johnson, but it did seem like an adjustment was needed.

– David Akers’ Implosion

Despite his recent string of success, I still felt uneasy with Akers kicking.  Those fears turned out to be realized.  Folks, do not underestimate the importance of that missed field goal and extra point (the laces were in so part of this blame goes to Rocca).  With those four points on the board, the Eagles only need a field goal in the last possession.  You would have seen different type of play calling if the Eagles only needed a field goal to send it to overtime.  

– Too Much Quintin Demps

I think Demps has a bright future in this league, but  we saw too much of him yesterday.  He was one of the primary culprits on the long Fitzgerald TD catch.  It’s tough to ask a rookie to stay home on a trick play in the NFC Conference championship game.  To his credit, Demps was in position but simply fell when he had to switch shoulders.  Again, I think Demps will be a very good player in this league but he may not have been quite ready for the spotlight of the NFC Conference championship.

– Westbrook Is Not Right

I don’t care what he says—Westbrook is not even 75%.  He was hitting the hole very tentatively and without the burst we are accustomed to seeing.  His inability to establish a running game was critical.  Which brings me to my next point…

– What will it take to get Buckhalter on the field?

Correll Buckhlater is an effective running back that is well above average in all phases of the game.  He can run, catch and block.  So why not get him a few more touches, especially when you are playing with a one-legged version of Brian Westbrook?  I don’t understand it.

– McNabb was not at his best

I am a long-time and vocal supporter of McNabb.  I think he deserves the lion’s share of the credit for turning this franchise around.  I also believe that he should be back with this organization next year without a shadow of a doubt.  That being said yesterday was not McNabb’s finest performance.  If you just glance at the stat line, you’d think he played well.  But those 375 passing yards and 3 TDs are deceiving.  McNabb played well in fits and starts and never permanently found his rhythm.  On the final drive, McNabb missed an open DeSean Jackson across the middle and threw behind Hank Baskett.  Both of those throws were costly.

All of that being said, he made a BIG throw when it counted and was victim of a non-call by the referee.  McNabb did not play his best yesterday, but he played well enough to win.  He deserves better.

– Pass Interference is Pass Interference

Photo courtesy of Philly.com

I am not one to complain about the referees, but at a critical point in the game, it has to be pointed out that Hood committed pass interference on that 4^th and 10 throw.  Would the Ealges have gone on to score?  I don’t know.  But the refs robbed the team and the fans of a chance at seeing that game through to its conclusion.  You can sit here and say that the refs should not be the ones to decide who wins the game.  That’s just an excuse for a ref with no balls.  “Let the players decide the outcome of the game,” they say.  Hood did decide the outcome of the play when he swiped at Kevin Curtis’ leg causing him to fall before he came out of his break.  The refs missed that one–there is nothing more to it.

– The Defense Let the Eagles Down

Photo courtesy of Philly.com

The Eagles defense was the single most important factor in the team’s ascent into the NFC Conference championship game.  This defense was playing at its highest level in years.  So where was that defense yesterday?  If your offense gives you 25 points you should win.  If your offense takes the lead and the momentum with a 65-yard TD pass with 8 minutes to go, you should win.  The defense could not get off the field when it mattered and it cost the Eagles a shot at the Super Bowl.  There is a good reason why Brian Dawkins apologized to the fans.

– Summary

Do not interpret this as a laundry list of excuses for why the Eagles lost the game.  The Cardinals outplayed the Eagles in nearly every facet of the game and rightfully earned a trip to Tampa.  These are merely observations of what went wrong from the Eagles perspective.  In the end, all it amounts to is another off-season of anguish for tormented Eagles’ fans. 

When do pitchers and catchers report?

That is all I can muster right now.  Cardinals played a good game.  Congrats.

When I started this string of posts on the Eagles/Cardinals game I said forget about the Thanksgiving Day game.  Erase it from your memory because it means nothing when tomorrow at 3 p.m. rolls around.  This is not the same Eagles team and it is damn sure not the same Cardinals team.

The Cardinals defense suddenly looks stout and the offense has a new commitment to running the ball (sound familiar).  As a Philly sports fan, we all think we know anguish, but this is a Cardinals’ franchise that has been hard-pressed to make the playoffs let alone compete for a championship.  That desperation could propel the Cardinals to the most improbable Super Bowl in NFL history.

The Eagles on the other hand are a hot team that seems to be gelling at the right time.  Donovan McNabb is playing some of the best football of his career and Andy Reid is looking more like the coach that turned this franchise around than the one that has let it languish the past few years.   On top of that, Jim Johnson has this defense playing at a level not seen in Philadelphia since Reggie White, Jerome Brown, Seth Joyner and Andre Waters were roaming the Vet locker room.

But before I get to my pick we’ll take a look at what others have to say about the game:

Revenge of the Birds outlines the keys to a Cardinals victory.

The Iggles Blog is feeling confident.

Inside the Iggles picks the Eagles to win in a tight one, 24-20.

At GCobb’s site, Lyod Vance picks the Eagles to come away with a win, 27-20.

The700Level envisions a trip to Tampa.

RaisingZona outlines some of the picks at the national level.

So which will it be?  The improbable run made by the Cardinals continues or the Eagles team that has finally lived up to expectations gets another shot at glory?

The Eagles are a veteran-laden team that has been so close to the promise land before but never brought home the ultimate prize.  On the other hand, this Cardinals team is relatively young save for a few positions and will walk away with a successful season despite the outcome of this game.

The Eagles have more to play for, the Cards are just happy to be here.  Eagles win, 31-21.  Book your flights to Tampa!

If you’ve been reading my posts, then you already know where this is going.  While I love football, and will be watching the AFC Championship game tomorrow, this may be the most half hearted post of all time.  My mind has been filled with thoughts of that other big game tomorrow.  And, if you have been reading anything I have written recently, you know that my superstitions prevent me from laying out my thoughts on the early game, or even mentioning it by name for that matter.  I have been living on a healthy diet of Jack Daniels and qualudes to get through the week.  Of course, just like in previous weeks, I will loosely veil my “hint” on the other game.  So far in the playoffs I am a measly 3-5, but I feel pretty good about getting to .500 this weekend. Now, my thoughts on the AFC Championship between Pittsburgh and Baltimore…

Pittsburgh (-6) vs. Baltimore

This is the first time since 1999 that division rivals will meet in a conference championship game.  These teams can’t stand each other, and that won’t change on Sunday.  They basically played to a standstill in their two meetings this season, however Pittsburgh won both games.  It’s going to be a street brawl.  These are the top two defenses in the NFL.  In the two previous weeks, I have picked against the Ravens and came away a loser.  Could I possibly do it again?  I keep talking about being a rookie in the playoffs, and how that usually manifests itself in a negative way.  To Flacco’s credit, he hasn’t made the big mistake.  Even more so, the credit should go to John Harbaugh and the Ravens coaching staff for not allowing Flacco to be in a position to make those mistakes.  Oh, and having that nasty defense led by Ray Lewis and Ed Reed doesn’t hurt.  But, I will point at the fact that the Titans moved the ball on the Ravens, and that Chris Johnson was running all over them until his injury.  The Ravens are beat up and tired and are playing their 18^th week in a row.  On the flip side, the Steelers looked to me to be the one team last week that actually benefited from having a first round bye.  They got healthy on offense with Willie Parker being fresh and Big Ben looking healthy as well.  Parker poses a lot of the same problems to the Ravens defense that Johnson did, and I think will be an enormous factor.  I just think the Steelers will be able to move the ball and make enough plays on offense to control this game.  When I look at this game I don’t see an area where the Ravens have the advantage.   Roethlisberger has experience over Flacco, the Steelers are the more rested team, and they are playing at home.  The Ravens strength is on defense, but that is not advantage for them in this game, as the Steelers have every bit as good a defense.  I think Flacco will struggle against the tough Steelers defense and unless the Ravens have one of those games where they run for 200 yards, I don’t think they will be able to stay with the Steelers.  It will be a close game for awhile, but I think in the end, the Steelers pull away and defend their home field.

STEELERS 24-10

It should be a great day of football.  Now, I need to pop a few ludes to get though the day.  The moment you’ve all been waiting for…Let’s just say I think we’ll be watching an all Pennsylvania Super Bowl!