If my informal Twitter poll is any indication, many Sixers fans want the team to make a deal as the deadline nears but few have confidence that one will get done. What can you expect? We are impatient Philly fans that constantly crave a championship but never believe one will come. Even though the Phillies broke that 
mold, the general sentiment still lingers.
After last night’s 101-89 loss at the hands of the Denver Nuggets, it is likely that cries for a trade will escalate to deafening levels. If there is one thing Philadelphia fans have down pat it is the “sky is falling syndrome.” Two straight ugly losses are enough to kick that into high gear.
But not everyone is calling for a trade. John Smallwood over at the Daily News thinks the team should stand pat. His primary argument is that no move at the deadline could possibly pull this team to elite status and therefore it is not worth the risk. He is right that a deadline deal is not suddenly going to make this team a contender. But as I have said time and time again, this team is not a contender next year either with its current group of players plus Elton Brand. In fact, if the Sixers were to essentially trot out the same group of players next season they would have a ceiling of a #4 seed in the Eastern Conference. So if making a move now doesn’t get the team to title contender status but sitting tight doesn’t either, should fans be content to wallow in mediocrity?
I don’t want to continue to beat a dead horse but it is my opinion that the Sixers need to seriously test the market for Andre Miller. It’s not that I dislike Miller or think he should be traded just for the sake of moving him. If they can’t get something close to equal value I will take my chances in free agency. However, Miller is a valuable commodity on the trade market. Several teams would love to have a veteran point guard for a playoff push.
Yes, in the short term, the Sixers will suffer. And yes, there is a strong case to be made that moving Miller takes away the one veteran presence that can help this young team mature. Shipping Miller could leave a bad taste in the collective mouths of these young players. That is a valid point but a risk I would be willing to take if I were sitting in the GM’s office today.
Look no further than the last two games for the reason the Sixers CANNOT win with this personnel. 63-177 from the field for 35% and 6-28 from three-point range for 21%. Those are not the numbers of a winning team and certainly not the numbers of a contender. The clear and obvious need is a shooter. Problem is: the Sixers have little money to spend this offseason and there are few options available on the trade market. It’s not an easy predicament that Ed Stefanski faces today but he needs to try and find a new home for Andre Miller.
I read the Smallwood article and he made a good point, which was that this team wasn’t intended to be a finished product. At the beginning of the season, I, too, thought that the ceiling for this team was the fourth seed and a second round exit.
This team still needs to figure some things out. First, is Andre Iguodala a two or a three? If he’s a three, we need to find someone to play the two since we it seems Thaddeus isn’t a two. Willie Green is manning that spot, but he is not a starting-type talent. After that, we are going to have to get a shooter on this team. Thaddeus Young showed good touch earlier this season; I don’t know where it went, however I believe he has the ability to be that type of player. Iguodala isn’t a shooter, although he tends to settle for jump shots often enough to trick people (and himself) into thinking he is.
I believe that this team is a piece or two away from truly contending. I hear you when you say we should look into trading Andre Miller, but if we do that we would create a hole at the one if we didn’t pick up a capable guy to man that spot. I don’t have confidence in Lou Williams in that spot: in my view, he’s an Allen Iverson/Ben Gordon type of player who’s trapped in a point guard’s body. Every championship team, in recent memory, has had a capable guy play the point; I trust Ed Stefanski is keeping this in mind as he thinks about the Miller question. The rest of this season should go to answering who should play the two and three, and developing Marreese Speights; I believe we may get a shooter by using the mid-level exception (which is going to be between 5 and 7 million dollars) to sign a guy. I don’t know who would be available, but we don’t need a big-name guy to get it done. All we need is a guy like Kyle Korver!
All very good points Darryl. What worries me is the prospect of losing Miller in the offseason and missing this opportunity to get anything in return. He has not indicated he wants to leave, but is so damn aloof that it is hard to gauge what he wants. It would not surprise me to see him walk and if that is a real risk, the Sixers should get what they can for him now.
I agree with you though that it leaves a hole at the PG spot that Lou Will is not capable of filling. Stefanski faces some tough choices!
The problem is, most teams will not give “anything in return”. Miller will be a free agent, so why give anything away. Most of the contenders are pretty set at point guard so there is no need to trade for Miller. He has the most “value” technically, but not in this market. That’s why you really can’t trade him, even if he walks away after this season. Any players the Sixers get back in a trade for Miller, would more than likely not benefit the team long term. Worst case scenario, he plays out the year and continues to teach the young guys, and then walks. But, they may have some flexibility to replace him. Just because a guy is going to leave via free agency isn’t reason enough to make a trade. I think too often teams get caught up in the whole “we have to get SOMETHING for a player” syndrome before he leaves, but rarely does that equate to getting anything that truly helps a team move forward. The good thing is that there still aren’t too many teams next year that will financially be able to pay Miller. Half the teams are borrowing money right now from the NBA, so even if he tests the market, he may find that the Sixers are his best bet for a multi year deal.
That’s essentially what I am saying. The market likely won’t yield anything of equal value for Miller and I am by no means advocating trading him just because they might lose him–but if there is someone of value than they should look to move him. The Blazers for instance, while maybe not a contender, could stand a veteran presence at point guard. I’m merely saying that they desperately need to improve this roster. If they bring him back next year, they have very little flexibility to address other pressing needs. Then who do you move? Speights, Thad, Iggy, Brand? The Sixers have too many players that fit the same mold and Miller is part of that mold. He is a very good player, don’t get me wrong.
And I’m not sure signing Andre Miller to a multi-year deal is the right thing for this team in the offseason. He’s 33, an average defender at best and can’t knock down a jumper beyond 15 feet. He does a lot of thins well and he fits this team, but this team can’t win a title.
It is not just Andre Miller himself that was valuable, it was also his contract, which we know is expiring this season. Many teams are gearing up for the much-publicized free agent pool in 2010. Supposedly guys like LeBron, Wade, Bosh, and the like will be available. Teams with an eye towards 2010 would have liked to have made the trade for him to clear ten million off their books, but yes, it had to make basketball sense for us to do the deal.
Andre Miller is a difficult guy to read, but I believe he’s going to re-sign with us. It makes economic sense for him to do so as other teams will not be interested, due to what they have their eye on in 2010; also, other teams that may be interested won’t be able to do more than the mid-level, which means he’ll have to play for a substantial discount. Perhaps he will play for a discount. NBA economics says that we may sign him to the most money (and the longest term, six years instead of five), regardless of our cap situation, because he is our own player. From what I hear, we will be over the cap with or without him so considering those things, it makes sense to get a deal done with him or work out a sign-and-trade this offseason. I’m confident something will happen on the contract front.
The economics of the NBA are a huge wild card right now. Teams are dumping salary for the sole purpose of getting below the luxury tax barrier. Because of that, it is tough to get a good read on what teams are able and willing to do.
All true Darryl and Chris. What’s even more interesting is a lot of these teams that were trying to position themselves for a 2010 free agent splash are realizing that their own financial situation, regardless of salary cap, is in dire straits. I also was just reading that the NBA is actually lowering the cap, making it even more difficult for teams. I have a feeling that we will see quite a few of the big names stay with their teams once the economics work out. Literally half the league is borrowing an average of 11.7 million dollars each from the NBA! Look at what the Hornets were trying to do…Teams are just doing salary dumps, especially if they have no chance of winning a title. I agree with Daryll in that I think the chances are better than 50/50 Miller is back next year, but a lot can and will happen before it all plays out, so we shall see.
Obviously the Sixers didn’t move Miller. There wasn’t anything out there worth doing it for. My thing all along has been that in this year’s market, Miller did not have much value. You were saying that teams could use a point guard for a playoff push. Agreed, but we would be talking about below average teams more than likely, who would have barely a shot at resigning Miller, and going anywhere in the playoffs. The teams this year with any chance of winning in the playoffs are set at PG. Boston-Rondo, Cavs-Williams, Magic-they were a team that needed one short term, but wouldn’t have anything to give back in return of value and they went with Alston because of this, Lakers-Fisher, Spurs-Parker,Jazz-Williams, Hornets-Paul,Mavs-Kidd, the only team I could have seen trading for Miller would be Portland, however I’m not sure that they had much to offer the Sixers in return. So when you look at it, and Stefanski says there were no deals that made basketball sense, I am sure that’s true. There was no equal value for Miller out there, not even close.
And that has been my point all along. If it did not make basketball sense, then there is no reason to make a trade. I never advocated simply moving Miller and pointed out that Portland was probably the best fit of playoff teams. But that doesn’t mean he didn’t have value–quite the contrary in fact. His expiring contract alone made him hugely valuable to teams looking to shed money. But like you said, the value the Sixers were offered in return was not equivalent. This is their team for the remainder of the season and we won’t be able to truly judge Stefanski’s decision until the offseason plays out.