Heard in the Cheap Seats

I think everybody should be able to toot their own horn every once in awhile.  So, I will take this opportunity to pat myself on the back for calling every first round NBA series correctly almost down to the game.  Now, to be fair I am sure I’m not the only one.  I don’t think these series were too difficult to predict, but I will bask in the glow of being right for a change.  As Sidney Deane (Wesley Snipes) famously said, “Even the sun shines on a dog’s ass some days.”  The sun is shining on my ass today, even though the rain is pouring down!  Obviously, there was one pick (the Sixers) that I would have gladly gotten wrong, but we all know how that turned out.  It’s time to see if I can keep my perfection going with my picks for the conference semifinals.  So, without further ado…

EASTERN CONFERENCE

ATLANTA vs. CLEVELAND

The Cavs won 3 of the four meetings during the regular season, but it wasn’t easy.  The Hawks are extremely tough to beat at home, so I think they will play well against Cleveland in their building.  The problem is, Atlanta is far too inconsistent, and when things don’t go well for them they tend to implode.  Obviously LeBron James will do what he does, but I also think that Cleveland can create a lot of problems for the Hawks by using Ilgauskas in screen and rolls and even in the post.  Atlanta has a lot of athletic big men, so they will likely try to take advantage on the offensive end by making the Cavs big men move.  I think a lot of people underestimate how good the Hawks are when they defend and are clicking on offense.  But, I am a big fan of Mo Williams’ game, and I feel that he will dominate Mike Bibby in this series and that will be the difference.  I also think rebounding will be a big key in this series.  Cleveland must control the defensive glass, because if Josh Smith, Horford, etc are able to crash the offensive boards effectively, that will create big problems for Cleveland.  As always, turnovers will be crucial as well.  To me, the only chance the Hawks have of defeating the Cavs is if they can find a way to turn them over.  If Cleveland takes care of the basketball they will be near impossible to beat.  Atlanta needs a great series from Joe Johnson.  The Hawks did a nice job offensively against Cleveland during the regular season, but in the playoffs the Cavs will be allowed to be much more physical.  I will not be surprised at all if the Hawks struggle to score for much of the series.  Like I said, I think most people think this will be a complete cakewalk for Cavs, but I see it being a least somewhat tense.  I just don’t see LeBron James allowing Cleveland to bow out in the 2^nd round.  CAVS IN 6

ORLANDO vs. BOSTON

This is a tough one for me to even think about.  On one hand, there is the Orlando Magic, the team that ended the Sixers season led by a pompous coach/porn star look alike.  On the other hand there is the Boston Celtics, and even though my father is from Beantown, and 2 of my siblings live there, I hate everything about Boston sports.  Oh well, I guess I can handle 5 minutes of thought about this series.  The two teams split their 4 meetings during the season, but both Boston losses came in games when Kevin Garnett was either out of the lineup or missed much of the game.  It was obvious in the Bulls series, that without Garnett on the floor, and now without Leon Powe, the Celtics are not the nearly as strong defensively.  Boston sort og transformed themselves in that series into a scoring machine.  After 7 grueling games against the Bulls, do the Celtics have anything left in the tank?  I think they do.  One of the reasons I believe that the Celtics have a good chance of winning this series is that Orlando did not impress in the first round against the Sixers.  However, a big problem for Boston will be defending Dwight Howard.  Will they double team and leave Orlando’s shooters open, or try and play it the way the Sixers did and stay home on the shooters.  With injuries to Garnett and Powe, the Celtics are thin on the front line, and if Perkins gets into foul trouble the Celtics could have serious problems.  On the flip side, for the first 2 games at least, Courtney Lee will be out of the lineup and replaced by J.J. Redick.  The Celtics will abuse Redick with Ray Allen.  Paul Pierce will likely create match-up problems for Orlando because Lewis or Turkoglu cannot guard him.  I think Stan Van Gundy will counter with the length and athleticism of Pietrus off the bench for defensive purposes.  Boston will likely try to figure out ways to get Dwight Howard out of the lane defensively.  I do believe that Orlando can create some issues for Boston as well.  Rashard Lewis has a chance for a big series.  No matter who Pierce has to defend in this series, he will have a tough match-up.  This will be a series of adjustments for sure.  The “X” factor in this series in my opinion is Rajon Rondo.  The dude is becoming a superstar right before our eyes, and the Magic have no one that can guard him.  If Rondo has a monster series, the Celtics win.  If he struggles, the Celtics lose.  I’m betting on the former.  CELTICS IN 7

WESTERN CONFERENCE

HOUSTON vs. LOS ANGELES

There is only one team that I can’t stand just as much as the Boston Celtics.  That team is the Los Angeles Lakers.  It was painful to listen to Laker fans run their mouths while I lived there for the past 5 years.  But, I am also not an idiot, so I won’t pretend that the Lakers aren’t a very good basketball team.  I think this series is really about one thing: Can a very good Rockets defense stop the Lakers high powered offense?  We all know what Kobe Bryant can do, but he is far from the only weapon for L.A.  Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom are as skilled offensively as any forwards in the NBA.  Houston has all the components of a great defensive team, but L.A. is very comfortable on the offensive end.  It should be fun to watch Battier and Artest do battle with Kobe Bryant.  The Lakers had problems in the NBA Finals last year with Boston’s physical play.  Houston is certainly physical, and the Lakers will have to keep Houston off the offensive glass.  As good as the Rockets are on the defensive end, the Lakers will combat that with precision passing and cutting.  Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom will be big in this series.  I’m not sure Houston has an answer for Gasol.  The Lakers have never impressed me with their defense, but the Rockets are not the type of offensive team that can really give the Lakers huge problems.  Houston relies on post play and screens.  They need to find ways to get Ron Artest into mismatches.  Houston does not really have players that will penetrate the Laker defense.  All this being said, the Rockets still have a chance.  They need to play mean and aggressive on both ends of the floor.  Houston has the size and strength to frustrate the Lakers.  If the Rockets are able to dominate the glass, this will be a close series.  I am not sure that the Rockets can win a game in Los Angeles and they are going to have to.  One final thought: It’s hard to ever refer to Kobe Bryant as an “X” factor, but in my opinion he is in this series.  The reason is that if these games are close, the Rockets don’t have anyone who can put the team on their back, and the Lakers obviously do.  His name is Kobe Bryant.  LAKERS IN 6

DALLAS vs. DENVER

This is a tough series to pick.  Both of these teams seem to be perennial under achievers.  But, Denver is now led by a proven winner in Chauncey Billups, and Dallas seems to finally be thriving with Jason Kidd at the helm.  This should be a fast paced and exciting series.  Offensively, there is a lot of firepower on both sides, and both teams can defend well at time during a game.  The match-ups are interesting across the board.  Now that Barea is starting, Chauncey Billups may have a big advantage there.  Dirk Nowitzki has struggled in the past with athletic defenders like Kenyon Martin, but Nowitzki is playing as well as I have ever seen him play.  Josh Howard has the strength and quickness to at least make Carmelo Anthony work for his buckets.  The most exciting aspect of this series could end up being the play of the benches.  Jason Terry and J.R Smith will come off the bench shooting for their respective teams.  Denver is tough to beat at home, and the Mavs have notoriously struggled in big games on the road.  Dallas is going to need Dirk Nowitzki to carry them in this series.  Denver won all 4 meetings during the season but they were games that could have gone either way.  In the end though, I think Denver has more balance than the Mavs.  In match-ups where two teams are similar, I look to the point guard, and Chauncey Billups has the upper hand in this series.  I also think that Denver is a better defensive team, and when teams are able to frustrate Nowitzki, the Mavs struggle.  This should be a very fun series to watch and each coach will be trying to find ways to create as many offensive match-up problems as possible.  I just think Denver will be a little bit better in this series. NUGGETS IN 7

There you have it.  I could have done crazy in depth breakdowns but I think I will save up that energy for the Conference Finals and the Finals.  Now, that the Sixers have been bounced, as a basketball my hope is that a few of these series can come close to being as entertaining as the Bulls and Celtics series was.  Enoy the games!