Heard in the Cheap Seats

Right about the time I post this, NBA free agency will be underway.  Usually that brings about a lot of excitement.  Last year at this time, the Sixers made a huge splash by signing Elton Brand.  Everyone knew that with a new GM and a lot of money to spend under the salary cap, the Sixers were going to try and make a big score.  They got their man, but the acquisition of Brand has yet to pay dividends.  Boy, how times have changed!

This season, the Sixers are over the salary cap.  It appears that the first order of business for Ed Stefanski is to start the conversations regarding the return of Andre Miller.  The Sixers can pay Miller as much as they want, regardless of the cap situation.  It remains to be seen what kind of market will be out there for Miller.  It looks as though the strategy will be to talk with Miller and his agent and make their play to resign him.  Whether they do or not will determine the other pieces the Sixers go after.

The options are pretty simple for the Sixers this summer.  In regards to Miller, they can sign him, not sign him, or work a sign and trade.  Currently, the Sixers have 10 players under contract, if you include Jrue Holiday.  So, regardless of what happens with Miller, the Sixers have spaces to fill.  They can use the mid level exception and veteran minimum as far as salary for free agents.  The mid level exception is between 5 and 6 million dollars per year.  I have scoured the list of free agents, both restricted and unrestricted and I came away unimpressed.  This summer is one of those scenarios where Stefanski and the Sixers are going to need to be creative.  They surely have a plan, and that plan will begin to unfold in the coming weeks. 

Normally, I might lay out what I would like to see the Sixers do in free agency.  But, since I am not a fan of about 90% of the available players, I will keep my opinion simple.  I am now convinced that signing Miller is a good move, but only if he will sign for 2 years.  If Miller wants a much longer contract for too much money, I don’t think it’s worth it.  I don’t want to see Stefanski signing players just to try and gain a few more wins this season.  The Sixers can’t end up in the same situation Billy King stuck them with again.  The Sixers will make a few moves this summer, and starting in about a half hours, news will be trickling out about what those moves might be.  If Stefanski gets creative and pulls a few rabbits out of his hat, I will be pleasantly surprised.  Stay tuned.

The benching is over…for now.  Charlie Manuel announced that Jimmy Rollins will be back in the starting lineup tonight, after Manuel sat Rollins down for a four game benching/mental breather.  Will the break give Rollins a much needed boost?  That remains to be seen.  Manuel certainly feels like it was the right thing to do, and I agree with his decision.  In reality, it was the only decision to make.  It was either that, or continue to watch Rollins struggle and press too hard to make things happen.  He needed to just take a little break and relax.  Manuel has said that the two have been talking throughout the benching, and if that’s the case then my guess is Manuel told Rollins all along, “You’re my guy.”  Charlie Manuel knows his players better than any of us, and he also knows that the Phillies are a better team when Rollins is going well.  There is no other option.  Is anybody excited about the prospect of Eric Bruntlett playing everyday?  I didn’t think so.  I have been as disappointed as anyone else with Rollins so far this season, but I think everyone needs to temper their frustrations a little bit.

We all know the numbers, but in case you don’t have them memorized, here they are:

.211 AVG, 41 R, 63 H, 15 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 16 BB, 32 K, 10 SB, .254 OBP

Obviously, not pretty.  But, my brother recently made a very good point in that there are many fans that view Rollins as the player he was during his amazing 2007 MVP season.  Unfortunately, that season was, by far, his best statistical season in almost every category.  His other 7 full seasons in the big leagues are a much better barometer of what we should expect from Jimmy Rollins.  So, I took my brother’s point a little further because I love beating things into the ground.

As bad as Rollins’ season has been so far, here is what his stats project out to for 162 games:

95 R, 145 H, 35 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 62 RBI, 23 SB, 37 BB, 74 K

Now, those numbers would assume that he would hit .211 and have an OBP of .254 at the end of the season.  If we eliminate Rollins’ 2007 numbers from the equation and use his other 7 full seasons, his averages look like this:

.274 AVG, 100 R, 176H, 38 2B, 10 3B, 14 HR, 64 RBI, 37 SB, 54 BB, 86 K, .327 OBP

As you can see, besides average, on base percentage, and hits, Rollins is on pace to have his normal year.  Those categories really go hand in hand, so it’s pretty simple.  Look at it from this way: There are 89 more games in the season.  Rollins needs to average one more hit every 3 games to be right where he normally ends up every season.  His average, his OBP, and hits would be right where they have always been.  I’ll use the immortal words of “Crash” (Kevin Costner) to “Nuke” (Tim Robbins) to illustrate my point:

“Know what the difference between hitting .250 and hitting .300?  It’s 25 hits.  25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay?  There’s 6 months in a season, that’s about 25 weeks.  That means if you get one extra flare a week-just one-a gork, you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes…you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week…and you’re in Yankee Stadium.”

For those of you who don’t like great movies, that quote is from “Bull Durham”.  It shouldn’t be too hard for Rollins to average one more hit a week than he has been.  If he does that, his numbers will be just about even with 7 of his 8 other big league seasons.

I think Rollins is too good to hit .211 for the season.  He has struggled, no doubt, but one good month and his numbers will be decent.  Fans need to settle down just a bit.  I am always amused and confused in cases like this when I hear people say they are “sick” of Rollins or that the Phillies should “get rid of him”.  That just doesn’t make sense.  My question is always: And then what?  Who is the shortstop?  When a player like Rollins is struggling, you can’t just replace him.  There are no options on the team, and that is not the type of trade the Phillies need to be making.  Not that any team would give up a great shortstop anyway.  Baseball sometimes mirrors the real world, and in the real world no one is going to trade you their brand new fully loaded 5-series for your 2001 Toyota Camry with 100,000 miles and in need of a new transmission.  Think before you make ridiculous statements, please. 

So, tonight Rollins will be back, and in my opinion, this can only be a good thing for the Phillies.  It has been easy to point the finger at Rollins lately, but he isn’t the only Phillie who has been having terrible at bats during the recent struggles.  If Rollins is even marginally better than he has been, the Phillies improve.  How much worse can he really get?  He will be back in his usual leadoff spot, which I also agree with.  The Phillies aren’t really comprised of a bunch of prototypical leadoff men, including Rollins.  Victorino is about the same historically as Rollins when it comes to statistics.  I’d rather see Rollins getting on base in front of the big RBI men rather than in front of Carlos Ruiz.  Rollins has had his mental break, so we will see what his approach and focus is starting tonight.  Either way, I am sure he will continue to be the topic of a lot of discussion in the Illadelph.

Today is the final day of an ill-fated month highlighted by excruciating losses, struggling superstars and a bloated disabled list.  It is the final day of a month wrought with squandered opportunities and baffling inconsistency.  Tonight’s game against the Atlanta Braves marks the end of June—and maybe that’s a good thing.

Maybe 6/30 will be a cathartic day for this Phillies team that washes away the wrongs of the month and helps to build some much-needed momentum.

Optimism allows us to find some reason for hope when logic tells us otherwise.   It’s no secret that the Phillies have been playing some terrible baseball over the last couple of weeks.  During the most recent 10-game stretch, the team has stumbled to a 3-7 record.  All the while, the disabled list continues to grow at an astonishing rate—with Antonio Bastardo becoming the latest casualty.  Things have been so bad that Jimmy Rollins has been asked to take a seat on the bench for the last four games.

Using logic in place of hope, Phillies fans have plenty of reasons to wonder when this month-long swoon will come to an end.  There is no time like the present.  The Phillies are about to embark on a crucial 6-game stretch against two NL-East foes starting with a 3-game tilt with the Atlanta Braves.  Following that series, it is on to New York for three with the Mets.  The Phillies, at the very least, need to split these games and ideally would take 4 out of 6.  This is an opportunity to put some space between the Mets and Phillies and also squash any notion the Braves might have of competing in this division.

A lot has gone wrong for the Phillies in the month of June.  Tonight is an opportunity to rid themselves of that bad karma and move into July on a positive note. 

Going into last night’s NBA draft, I think most people knew that the Sixers were going to draft a guard.  The only question was: Which one?  The answer ended up being Jrue Holiday from UCLA.  I wrote yesterday about how I think it is extremely hard to project what type of pro a player will be and I am sticking to that.  I said that I would “analyze” the pick, and I will, but not from the standpoint of telling you whether or not I think he will be a great pro.  I have been reading quite a bit on last night’s draft.  I’ve read everything from newspapers, national sites, blogs, you name it, I’ve read it.  The majority of what I have read is positive on the Sixers pick of Holiday.  The word is that Holiday slipped to the 17^th pick due to some teams being a bit concerned with a shoulder injury.  Like I said yesterday, I think most of what people say about players before the draft and after the draft is a bit recycled.  No one really knows who will be good and who won’t.  That is why I won’t predict anything in regards to Holiday.  People use terms like “upside” and “potential” when they discuss the NBA draft.  Well, damn, I would hope every player has both of those things!  Why else would they be in the NBA draft?  Everyone seems to just regurgitate what they read and hear someone else say because it sounds good.  But, no one really knows.

What I will analyze is pretty simple.  Did the Sixers make a good pick based on how the draft played out?  Not, will Jrue Holiday be a great point guard? I think Holiday is a good player.  Up until recently, I was a resident of Los Angeles and saw him first hand.  I suspect a lot of the Sixers fans throwing out their opinions may have seen him 5 times on TV.  Holiday is big and strong for a guard, but he did not play much point at UCLA.  I won’t do a whole scouting report because the reality is you have probably already seen a million and they all say the same things.  Does Holiday have potential?  Of course!  He has the potential to be good and he has the potential to be out of the NBA in 5 years, just like every other player drafted last night.  So, once again, was it a good pick?  Well, I am not against the pick whatsoever, especially since the Sixers desperately needed a guard.  If I was doing one of those posts where I hand out grades on each pick, I would probably land in the middle with the Sixers.  What is my reason?

It’s actually simple.  I have stated over and over that the draft is a crapshoot.  So much so that you may have stopped reading by now because you think I’m an ass.  But, if it truly is a crapshoot, then the best any GM can do is project so I don’t blame anyone for doing that.  Still, if you are going to project, shouldn’t you go with facts?  The fact is, no matter what anybody says or what Holiday tells you about being out of position in college, he wasn’t a point guard.  Don’t get me wrong, Holliday was drafted as a point guard and that will be his position in the NBA, but there were 2 highly rated point guards on the board when the Sixers were on the clock: Eric Maynor and Ty Lawson.  Regardless of what happens with Andre Miller, the Sixers need a point guard, plain and simple. I trust that the Sixers know a lot more about all of this than I do, so that is why I am not saying they were wrong.  All I am saying is that Lawson and Maynor have been point guards since Prohibition.  On the flip side, when draft “experts” use the term “value” when discussing the draft, the Sixers definitely score high there.  Anytime you get a kid who was as highly rated out of high school as Holiday, and played at UCLA for just one year, with the 17^th pick, you have succeeded in the value department. 

I guess all I’m really saying is I probably would have gone in a different direction, but I’m not an NBA GM.  Although, based on a lot of picks last night and over the years, that’s a good thing.  Holiday could turn out to be a great pick, or he might not.  But, I think we all need to actually see the kid play a few NBA games before we anoint him the Sixers point guard for the next 10 years.  If that’s what he turns out to be, then I will be as happy as anyone, and I will applaud Ed Stefanski.

It’s that time of year again!  That’s right, the 2009 NBA draft takes place tonight, with the Sixers currently holding the 17^th pick.  There have already been a number of trades involving draft picks, as well as a mega trade that will now pair Shaq with LeBron.  So, who will the Sixers take with the 17^th pick?  No one has a clue, and if you say you do, well then you’re either lying or your name is Ed Stefanski.  I have never been a fan of the over coverage of the NFL and NBA drafts.  It just serves to fill up TV and radio time, because the reality is, no one really knows what teams will do, and no one really knows how a player will pan out as a professional, especially in the NBA. 

There are only 2 rounds in the NBA draft, and quite a few of the players drafted never get a sniff of the NBA game for a few years if at all.  Yet, every blogger, sportswriter, radio personality, and TV analyst puts their 2 cents in on evaluating, projecting, and guessing.  I am not going to do any of that.  I can honestly say that I know the game of basketball more than most people, but there are hundreds of cases of players I thought would be good and they weren’t and vice versa.  Just look at how poorly so many general managers have drafted around the league.  There may be a few can’t misses, although even those are never sure things.  I mean, hell, Bill Simmons has a column he has written a few times entitled “The Atrocious GM Summit” to honor how stupid many of the picks/trades that NBA GM’s make are.  No one knows what will happen in tonight’s draft, and no one truly knows which players will be all stars and which will be flops.  Most of the players have talent, although it can be argued that many do not have NBA level talent, but it is impossible to determine how a player will react once he is thrust into the NBA world and the NBA game.  With, the Sixers picking at #17, it becomes even more of a crapshoot as to whether or not the player they draft will ever be a successful NBA player.  Do I need to run through the list of Sixers draft picks that were much higher than #17?  I didn’t think so.

There seems to a common question that is posed when discussing the draft.  Do you draft the best player available or draft at a position of need no matter what the value of the pick is?  Well, this year, it seems the only thing that we know with relative certain is that the Sixers will be drafting a guard.  Unless, of course, we are surprised by a big trade, but my guess is that won’t happen.  Ed Stefanski has pretty much told everyone that the Sixers aren’t looking at big men.  NBA GM’s certainly don’t like everyone knowing their strategy, but I think in this case we can trust the words.  What we don’t know is which guard the Sixers will draft.  Will it be Ty Lawson?  Eric Maynor?  Brandon Jennings?  Jeff Teague?  Wayne Ellington?  No one knows.  I “like” all of thos players, but that really means nothing at this point.  Sure, I will analyze the pick after the draft, but again, no one knows.  It seems that one of the trades (the trade of Acie Law to Golden State for Jamal Crawford) may have helped the Sixers because the Warriors are now reportedly no longer interested in drafting a guard.  Either way, we will know later tonight what the Sixers thought process is, and after that we can only hope that they made the right choice. 

The trials and tribulations of Jimmy Rollins this season have been well documented.  Phillies fans have been rightfully outraged at his performance to date and he has been the object of many a Citizen’s Bank boo. 

Can you blame them?  This is a guy that is supposed to be the Phillies’ sparkplug yet he is hitting .217 with a .261 OBP.  And you know that old adage that “speed never goes in slumps?”  Well apparently that rule does not apply to Rollins as he has already been caught stealing five times this season compared to three all of last year.  Whatever measurement you use to judge Rollins’ performance, he has fallen woefully short of expectations.

But maybe we are placing unfair expectations on Rollins.  Maybe he is a very good major league shortstop.  Very good, but not elite.  I know that is close to blasphemy in Philadelphia, but indulge my theory for a moment.

Jimmy Rollins’ per 162 game average looks like this: .274 BA, .329 OBP, .436 SLG, .765 OPS, 16 HR, 70 RBI and 38 SB, 109 R. 

Those are the numbers of very good major league player but not the MVP-caliber player Philadelphia expects.

Compare those numbers with a player like Orlando Cabrera and they are not as far apart as one might think.  In most people’s minds, the delta between these two players is huge, but the numbers tell a different story.

Cabrera’s per 162 game average looks like this: .271 BA, .321 OBP, .395 SLG, .716 OPS, 11 HR, 70 RBI and 18 SB, 82 R.

Clearly, Jimmy Rollins is a better player, but is he really an elite, MVP-level player?

Let’s take another player who has had a long career as an above-average, but not elite, SS.  Edgar Renteria.

Renteria’s per 162 game average goes like this: .289 BA, .346 OBP, .402 SLG, .748 OPS, 11 HR, 71 RBI , 24 SB, 94 R. 

Again, Rollins has him beat, particularly in the power numbers but not by much.  And keep in mind, Rollins per 162 average include a year in which there was what now appears to be a statistical anomaly—30 HRs.  If you throw that year out as an outlier, his per 162 averages fall more in line with Renteria’s numbers.

Take a look: .274 BA, .331 OBP, .426SLG, .757 OPS, 13.5 HR, 64 RBI, 100 R, 35 SB 

Last year, the average major league shortstop (with over 350ABs) hit close to 14 HRs had 78 RBI and 87 R. 

Let’s get this straight: Jimmy Rollins is a very good baseball player.  He had a magical MVP season and was integral in helping the Phillies win the World Series.  There is no questioning that.  This is not an indictment of Rollins. 

In addition, the above stats do not take into account the number of runs he saves with his glove and the intangibles he brings as a clubhouse leader.  I get that.

But maybe as Phillies fans, we are clinging too tightly to that MVP season in hopes that is the real Jimmy Rollins.  Maybe our expectation is out of whack because the lingering memory of that year drives us to hope we will see it once again.  Orr, maybe we need to accept that he is just a very good baseball player but not elite. 

I hate to be negative but…Oh, who am I kidding?  I love being negative!  I have been meaning to write this post for some time now, but never got around to it.  It has been on my mind ever since it was announced that Jimmy Rollins was leading NL shortstops in votes for the All Star Game.  Thankfully, the most recent tally shows that Hanley Ramirez has taken over the top spot and Rollins is 2^nd.  That’s right…Jimmy Rollins has received almost 1.5 million votes to be the starting NL shortstop. 

This is a perfect example of why fans should not be given the power to select the all stars.  I have always been against it.  It is even more of a problem now that the game actually decides home field advantage in the World Series.  I understand that the game is designed to be an exhibition to entertain the fans, so I should have no problem with who makes the team.  But, I have always felt that the All-Star team should be made up of the best players that particular season.  Instead, we end up with a team full of players from mostly the major markets and that’s about it.  Then, the managers are forced to fill in the roster and there are always glaring snubs because they have to choose a player from each team.  I realize this isn’t a big deal, but I have always voted seriously when it comes to all star games.  I vote without bias.  I think ESPN and everyone else need to stop listing the number of all star selections a player has among their accomplishments.  I really don’t understand the mentality of voting for Jimmy Rollins this season.  Since I can remember, the argument has always been that the fans vote in the players they most want to see play.  Ok, fine.  The problem with that argument is, the fans that are voting for Rollins are not living in Missouri.  They are here in Philly.  We see him every damn day!  Not to mention, the Philly fans should be the ones most frustrated with Rollins’ play so far this year.  Why would anyone check his name on the ballot?  If you take a look at the votes, it is obvious that the fans in the major baseball markets are the ones casting most of the votes.  I would love if they took the fan vote away.

The Rollins case is a perfect example of the problem this causes.  Some may not see it as a problem, but I do.  At least, until we stop using being an all star as any kind of barometer.  I mean, players even get bonuses for making the team!  Just think about this:

Out of the 10 NL shortstops with at least 200 at bats, Rollins ranks 9^th in average and 10^th in OBP.  It is late June and he is still flirting with the Mendoza line, yet 1.5 million fans voted for him to start.  Now, it is looking like Hanley Ramirez will end up winning, thankfully, but if he doesn’t then there’s a chance someone gets snubbed.  If the team only goes with 2 shortstops, the other would likely be Ramirez, which would leave out Miguel Tejada.  Tejada leads all NL shortstops in hits, doubles, and RBI, and is 2^nd in average, OBP, and slugging percentage.  Even if it wasn’t Tejada who was snubbed, Rollins would take up a spot that should go to someone who has earned it. 

I hate to rip on Rollins because I am a fan of the guy, but come on people!  Everyone has the right to pick whomever they feel like on their ballot, but I don’t have to agree with it.  Apparently, there are at least 1.5 million people that I disagree with so far. 

Let’s get this out of the way: the Philadelphia Phillies are playing bad—no—atrocious baseball right now.  They just completed a 1-8 homestand during which their offense looked inept, their starting pitching beatable and their usually reliable bullpen suspect.  On top of all of that, the injury bug seems to have chomped down on this team with a vengeance.  Even the game’s current ironman, Ryan Howard, has felt the sting of the injury bug with what has been diagnosed as sinusitis. 

So is it time to panic?

Everything outlined above would indicate yes.  A terrible team at home with poor starting pitching is not often the recipe general managers’ around the league cook up for success.  MVP-caliber players are not supposed to be hitting .217 with a .261 OBP.  Your so-called ace should not sport a 4.28 ERA and a .298 batting average against.   All signs point to a huge red panic button that should not only be pushed, but stomped on with all of Ruben Amaro’s weight.

But cooler heads should prevail.  That’s right Phillies fans; I am not ready to hit the panic button just yet.  All of the things I outlined above are serious concerns—particularly the starting pitching.  You have to figure that the team will get healthy, the offense will come around and the bullpen will regain its form.  However, I’m not sure the same can be said about the starting rotation.  If the Phillies continue to plod through the regular season schedule with the current rotation they might not have the opportunity to defend their World Series Crown.  Instead, these Phillies might be watching the playoffs from their sofa. 

It is still June and this is a good baseball team.  They have one of the best offensive teams in baseball when everything is clicking and the bullpen is deep and reliable on most nights.  On top of that, no team in the NL East seems to want to capitalize on the Phillies misfortune.

Panic button?  No.  Wake up call to Ruben Amaro that there is no time like the present to go get a starting pitcher?  Absolutely.  

Most of us enjoy the comfort of our homes.  When we are away for an extended period of time, it is always nice to come home to our own beds.  That is why there are so many phrases like, “Home is where the heart is”, “Home sweet home”, or “There’s no place like home”.  It is nice to get away every once in awhile, but we all just feel more comfortable when we are in the familiar surroundings of home.  Well, all of us except for the 2009 Phillies it seems.  I have been biting my tongue on writing about this topic because I figured it would turn around.  The Phillies have been awful at home and great on the road.  At the beginning of the season, I chalked the Phils failures at Citzens Bank Park up to a World Series hangover.  But, now we are 32 home games into the season and the Phillies have a record of 13-19.  Compare that to a 23-9 road record and you have a legitimate head scratcher.  I mean, seriously, what the hell is going on here?  Usually teams that reach the postseason play way above .500 at home and right around .500 on the road. There as to be an explanation, right?  I have been doing a lot of thinking and researching and picking a lot of people’s brains on this topic, and I haven’t heard any good explanations.  What I decided to do is come up with my best explanation.  I am not saying I am right, because the likelihood is that the Phillies terrible play at home is just one of those crazy anomalies in sports.  It is something that has no explanation, but in Philly that isn’t good enough, so I am giving my attempt at solving the mystery.

First, we need to understand just how bad the Phillies have been at home.  Currently, only 2 teams in all of MLB have worse home records.  Those 2 teams are the Nationals and Diamondbacks, the worst and 4^th worst teams in baseball respectively.  Not very good company.  The only reason the Phillies are holding on to first place at the moment is that they have the best road record in baseball.  Oh, and the Mets are currently playing with a minor league roster.  But, that is what makes this all so puzzling.  How can the defending World Champions be so great on the road, yet so bad at home?  It makes absolutely no sense.  In the previous 2 seasons when the Phillies reached the postseason, they went 47-34, and 48-33 at home.  In order to reach that mark this season, the Phillies would have to go 35-14 in their remaining home games.  That is certainly doable, but if you have seen them play this year at the Bank, it is hard to see that happening.

Now, before I get to my theory, I wanted to mention an interesting fact I found.  In the last 2 seasons, the Phillies were not a great home team when compared to other teams that reached the postseason.  In those 2 seasons, out of the 14 other teams that played in October, only the Cubs in 2007 had a worse home record than the Phillies.  That was a very average Cubs team that won a weak NL Central with only 85 wins.

There has obviously been a lot of discussion in the media and around town about the poor start by the Phillies at home.  I have heard 2 main theories that are directly opposite of each other: 1) The Phillies are feeling too much pressure to win at home and duplicate the success of last season, and 2) The Phillies are not feeling enough pressure and are riding on their own coattails of success.  Charlie Manuel even hinted at the latter theory a little while back.  I understand where these theories are coming from because, like I said, everyone is searching for some kind of explanation.  But, I disagree with both of them.  First of all, when we talk about pressure, where does that com from?  It comes from within.  Fans and media can make the pressure more intense, but ultimately if an athlete feels pressure, that comes from themselves.  I have been down to the ballpark and watched every single game either live or on TV, and I see no evidence of the fans putting pressure on the team.  But, I do understand that it is possible to try too hard to live up to expectations.  I am not going to say that it is impossible that is what is going on, but I don’t think that’s what it is.  I went back and looked at the two most recent cases of teams in big markets and big baseball cities that had histories of heartbreak and then finally broke through and won a championship.  Those two teams are the 2004 Boston Red Sox and the 2005 Chicago White Sox.  By this first theory, the fact that a team has finally reached the top, causes them to then struggle to reach to perform under the raised expectations.  Now, since we are simply talking about playing well in the regular season at home, and not the end result of the season, we will only look at that.  In 2004, the Red Sox went 55-26 at home and then 54-27 in 2005.  In 2005, the White Sox went 47-34 at home and then 49-32 the following year.  There was absolutely no drop off or hangover whatsoever.  My opinion on both of these theories is that they hold no water for the same reason.  I have always felt that teams cannot just turn switches on and off when they feel like it and be successful.  So, in a long baseball season, I don’t see how either theory makes sense.  How can the Phillies be playing so well on the road, and so terrible at home?  That would mean they can flip a switch once they are out of South Philly.  The second theory that Charlie Manuel intimated really suggests a lack of focus or concentration.  Granted, there have been signs of the Phillies lacking focus, but I don’t see how this would only happen at home.  For this theory to have any merit, someone needs to explain how the team can flip their focus switch on when they are on the road.  I just don’t feel that these theories explain what we have witnessed so far this season.

So, I have done all this yapping and still haven’t provided my own theory or explanation.  Well, mine is actually quite simple, I think.  It is a combination of 2 factors: 1) The pitching staff, and 2) Citizens Bank Park.  I am not blaming the ballpark at all, so let me explain.  What I mean, is that the Phillies pitchers are not comfortable at home and they are not the type of pitching staff that can succeed at home.  I am going to give you some statistics for this season to back this up, but for the sake of full disclosure, I will tell you that when I examined the hitting stats for this season, they are also much better on the road, but I have a bit of a theory on that.  First let’s look at the pitching stats for home and away:

HOME

32 Games- 5.40 ERA, .284 BAA, 1.59 WHIP

177 ER, 137 BB, 56 HR allowed

AWAY

32 Games- 4.15 ERA, .259 BAA, 1.32 WHIP

133 ER, 97 BB, 42 HR allowed

Now, those numbers aren’t great either on the road or at home, but to me, they are staggeringly skewed.  Like I said, the hitting stats are better on the road as well, but not nearly as skewed as the pitching.  Everybody knows the old cliché that “good pitching beats good hitting”.  On this site we have been examining the stats for the 2009 Phillies and I have constantly stated that no matter what the Phillies record says, the pitching stats suggest a very serious problem.  I believe that the 13-19 home record is a direct manifestation of that problem.  We all know that the Phillies pitching isn’t great.  But, the big problem is, when you combine very suspect pitching with a ballpark like the Bank, you have a chance to have some very bad results.  In a hitters’ park, the pitching staff needs to have guys who are ground ball pitchers as well as strikeout pitchers.  The Phillies staff is average at best when it comes to strikeouts and we have all seen their propensity to allow balls to be hit in the air.  Great pitching can level the playing field in an offensive oriented ballpark.  The Phillies do not have the staff to do that.  To play devils advocate with myself, this begs 2 questions: 1) Why then are the hitters struggling at home?, and 2) Why was this not an issue last season with largely the same staff.  To answer the second question, I think it is simply a case of a magical season.  Brad Lidge was perfect, the entire bullpen was great, and Jamie Moyer had 16 wins.  Everything just came together.  The first question is a little different and harder to answer.  Earlier I stated that I believe that athletes put pressure on themselves.  I disagreed with the 2 theories that have been thrown out to explain the poor showing at home.  But, where it does come into play a little is if you combine it with my theory.  If we agree that the pitching staff is neither suited for nor comfortable pitching at home, then we know that it is likely that a lot of runs will be surrendered.  Don’t you think the rest of the team knows that?  The hitters may feel that in order to win they need to score 8 runs.  They put too much pressure on themselves to produce runs.  It has nothing to do with winning last season, or the fans, or the media.  In addition, the pitchers feel they have to make a perfect pitch, where on the road they may not feel the same way.  That could explain how they have walked 40 more hitters at home. 

Again, this is just my explanation of what has taken place so far.  I firmly believe that with the current pitching staff, there is no chance of making the postseason.  Changes need to be made and they need to be made soon.  Whatever happens, I think we can all agree that the Phillies chances of repeating are slim if they continue to play losing baseball at home.  Is there the possibility that this all gets straightened out and the Phillies start winning at home again?  Absolutely.  The Phillies better hope it turns around soon, or the so called “pressure” from the fans will be impossible to miss.

UPDATE: According to General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr., Ibanez has been nursing this groin injury since April.  Apparently, it has flared up in recent weeks and got to point where the Phillies feared a more serious injury.  Ibanez will undergo an MRI today to see if there is any structural damage.

After displaying a heavy limp when running out a ground ball to first base in last night’s game against the Toronto Blue Jays, it was clear that Raul Ibanez was not right.  Well, those suspicions have been confirmed as the Philadelphia Phillies have placed Raul Ibanez on the 15-day DL.  The Early report is that Ibanez is going on the DL with a strained groin, which is a bit surprising since he just missed a game with a sore Achilles tendon. 

John Mayberry Jr. has been called up to fill in for Ibanez. 

It is no secret that Ibanez has been the team’s best and most consistent player this season and losing him for any length of time is a blow to this team.  But it stands as particularly tough pill to swallow as the Phillies struggle through a nine-game home stand that has seen them go 1-4 to date. 

Mayberry is a capable backup that should help provide some of the spark the Phillies will lose with Ibanez on the shelf.  But there is no doubt that this injury comes at a point where the Phillies are playing some of the worst baseball they have played this season.