Heard in the Cheap Seats

The Phillies need more problems as much as I need to smack my head repeatedly into a brick wall (although there are some that might argue this is a good idea!).  The fact that the Phillies have serious starting pitching issues is old news at this point, but you can now officially add Cole Hamels to the list of pitching concerns.  Even with the injuries to Brett Myers and Antonio “One Pitch” Bastardo and the inconsistencies of Blanton, Myers, and Happ, Cole Hamels was supposed to be the sure thing.  He was supposed to be the “ace”, the “stopper”, the guy who could make the pitching staff look a lot better because of his dominance.  It hasn’t quite gone according to plan.

Instead, Hamels is 4-5 with a 4.98 ERA.  That looks more like what we would expect from J.A. Happ, not Cole Hamels.  Hamels has not been all bad, this season.  He has had quite a few great outings, but not nearly enough.  On a team with below average starting pitching, those cannot be the numbers of the ace.  Hamels has failed to pitch 6 innings in 6 out of his 15 starts this season.  We know that the bullpen is being taxed due to the poor starting pitching.  When Hamels is on the mound, the bullpen is supposed to get a bit of a break.  I am not saying that we should expect the  nearly perfect Hamels of the 2008 postseason, but we should expect more than what has been shown so far.  Look around the league at the aces of staffs on winning teams; you won’t find one with a 4.98 ERA.  This is not a classic Philly overreaction.  I would love someone to make a good argument on the fact that the ace of the pitching staff has a losing record and a 4.98 ERA with the All Star break fast approaching is no ig deal.  If you can do that, I””d love to hear it.

Like I said, it hasn’t been all bad.  But, statistically speaking, there are a few glaring points of concern.  As far as strikeouts, walks, pitches per inning, and quite a few other stats, Hamels is faring right around normal.  But, he has given up 107 hits in 85 innings.  In his 3 previous seasons, Hamels surrendered well less than one hit per inning.  His ERA in his other 3 seasons was 4.08, 3.39, 3.09 respectively, compared to 4.98 this season.  His batting average against were .237, .237, and .227.  This season, opponents are hitting at a .312 clip against Hamels.  It is pretty clear that Hamels is just way more hittable than he has ever been.

The question that no one knows the answer to is, why?  How can a 25 year old ace and Worl Series MVP suddenly look so average?  Well, I don’t think anyone knows for sure.  There have been whispers that his arm is a bit tired due to the 260+ innings Hamels pitche last year.  That was by far a career high.  Hamels has insisted that he feels fine, but there are times, like last night, where his fastball velocity drops drastically after a few innings.  Obviously, a tired arm would cause the location of his pitches to be off, which would account for his struggles.  But, why has he looked so good in other starts?  Maybe there are games where his arm feels strong, and times where it doesn’t.  No pitcher feels 100% all the time, but a .312 average against is much more than that.

The only other explanation I can think of is that teams have a very clear scouting report on Hamels, and he has become predictable.  Hamels’ changeup is his out pitch, but it seems like opposing hitters know when it is coming.  Maybe he is tipping his pitches, or maybe he has just become too predictable and teams have him scouted to perfection.  Either way, adjustments need to be made.

No matter what the issue is, one thing is very certain:  In order for the Phillies to have another great run, they need Cole Hamels the ace, not Cole Hamels the mediocre pitcher.