Heard in the Cheap Seats

While most old adages are overused, there is one that applies to the baseball season—“it is a marathon, not a sprint.”  But now that we are halfway home, it s time to take stock of what has transpired thus far and what the rest of the season may bring.

Here is what we know: the Philadelphia Phillies sit at 44-38 and are two games clear of the Florida Marlins in the NL East.  The offseason acquisition of Raul Ibanez has proved to be a shrewd move by rookie GM Reuben Amaro Jr.  His early season surge has catapaulted the Phillies to its status as an offensive juggernaut.  Think that “juggernaut” is too strong of a term for this team given its recent struggles and the much-maligned Jimmy Rollins?  It isn’t.  This team is on pace to score 59 more runs and hit  28 more dingers than last year’s group and nobody would question the offensive prowess of the World Champs.  Imagine how lethal this offense will be once Rollins gets rolling.    The putrid performance of Rollins has been offset by strong seasons from Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Ibanez, Jasyon Werth, Shane Victorino and a bouneback season from Pedro Feliz.

With so much going right at the plate and a two-game lead in the NL East, it is reasonable for Phillies fans to feel good about their chances of getting into the postseason for a third straight time.  But that would be a false sense of security.

The reality is that this team is venturing into dangerous territory.  Cole Hamels has not pitched like the ace they need him to be, Jamie Moyer is finally starting to show his age, Brad Lidge has fallen back to earth and Brett Myers is likely out for the year. What that leaves is a mediocre starting rotation and an overtaxed bullpen.   I don’t care what kind of thunder you have in the middle of your lineup, if you can’t pitch, you can’t win. 

So where does that leaves this Phillies team as the second-half of the year gets underway?

In my opinion, the Phillies are teetering on the edge of trouble.   For starters, Raul Ibanez cannot be expected top continue his early season surge.  Without his early season production, the Phillies would have been in a perilous position.  With a drop off inevitable, Jimmy Rollins MUST start playing better baseball.  He has started to show signs lately that he is turning the corner but we need to see this on a prolonged basis before his  slump can be put in the rearview mirror.  But the offense is not the major concern. 

If the Phillies do not land a frontline starting pitcher, they will not repeat as World Series champs.  In fact, if they don’t get a starting pitcher, I would venture to say they won’t get out of the wild card round of the playoffs and will struggle to win their division.

The struggles of the starting rotation have put undue stress on the bullpen.  As the innings continue to pile for this bullpen unit, their effectiveness will decline.  Starting pitching is a definitive need for this team and if the Phils do not land one they will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs let alone defend their crown.

Yesterday’s development that Roy Halladay is on the market is welcome news for this team.  He is exactly the type of pitcher the Phillies need to land.  There are few pitchers in the league that can eat innings like Halladay.  With him at the top of the rotation, the bullpen can take the first seven innings off on nights that he starts.   But he won’t come cheap.  Amaro needs to find a way to get this deal done.  This is a team that is built to win and holding on to top prospects for the future when a player the caliber of Halladay is available is pure foolishness. 

The first half of the season provided a barometer of where the Phillies stand.  In first place, it is certainly not time to panic.  But a healthy dose of reality says that this team is not nearly as good as last year’s unit.  First place should not serve as comfort to a team with higher aspirations than a division crown.