Heard in the Cheap Seats

I wish my first post back was about a different topic, but I wanted to make sure that I at least said a few words on this site about the sad news today.  Jim Johnson, Philadelphia Eagles defensive coordinator for over a decade, passed away today. He was diagnosed with melanoma originally in 2001 and then again in January and had been undergoing treatment.  My thoughts and prayers are with Johnson’s entire family in this difficult time. 

I don’t know Jim Johnson personally, but my family has come in contact with him recently during his battle with melanoma.  I have vaguely mentioned this before, but our (Chris and myself) immediate family is currently dealing with a fight against melanoma just as the Johnson family had been.  It is one of the reasons I have not posted anything this month.  It is a terrible disease, and that is an understatement.  I pray that someday we can reach a point where we no longer have to lose anyone to cancer.  I myself have begun to develop ideas and look into ways that I can contribute to this fight.  It is interesting that the word “fight” or “battle” is often associated with cancer.  I always hear the phrase “lost their battle” when referring to someone who has passed away from the disease.  I personally do not believe in that phrase.  There has never been one person diagnosed with cancer that has ever lost.  They may no longer be with us, but they haven’t lost.  They have shown me and millions of others what true courage is. 

Jim Johnson did this as well.  He was genuine and kind to my family when they came in contact with him.  He obviously left his mark on the city of Philadelphia in football, but he had a family that knew him as a husband, a father, and a grandfather.  That is the most important mark any of us can make.  Once again, my thoughts and prayers are with the Johnson family.

I have not written anything for this blog in over 3 weeks.  When I started doing this with my brother, my goal was to write posts about Philly sports that spark discussion or invoke thoughts.  I am very opinionated when it comes to sports and most things in general, and I have always tried to make my opinions very clear.  When I started doing this, I wanted to be able to fill this site with tons of different content, and I believe my brother and I have done that.  We will continue to do that, and we have some bigger and better ideas and plans for this website.

Unfortunately, recently I haven’t produced much of anything.  I will try in the future not to lapse as much as I have done this month.  There has been a lot going on in Philly sports, and I plan to throw my two cents in on some of the main issues in the coming days.  It has been an exhausting month and continues to be, but I think my head is back to a place where I can focus on writing for this website.  I hope everyone out there continues to read and comment with their own opinions.  Thanks for your past readership and thank you in advance for following this site.

The Phillies need more problems as much as I need to smack my head repeatedly into a brick wall (although there are some that might argue this is a good idea!).  The fact that the Phillies have serious starting pitching issues is old news at this point, but you can now officially add Cole Hamels to the list of pitching concerns.  Even with the injuries to Brett Myers and Antonio “One Pitch” Bastardo and the inconsistencies of Blanton, Myers, and Happ, Cole Hamels was supposed to be the sure thing.  He was supposed to be the “ace”, the “stopper”, the guy who could make the pitching staff look a lot better because of his dominance.  It hasn’t quite gone according to plan.

Instead, Hamels is 4-5 with a 4.98 ERA.  That looks more like what we would expect from J.A. Happ, not Cole Hamels.  Hamels has not been all bad, this season.  He has had quite a few great outings, but not nearly enough.  On a team with below average starting pitching, those cannot be the numbers of the ace.  Hamels has failed to pitch 6 innings in 6 out of his 15 starts this season.  We know that the bullpen is being taxed due to the poor starting pitching.  When Hamels is on the mound, the bullpen is supposed to get a bit of a break.  I am not saying that we should expect the  nearly perfect Hamels of the 2008 postseason, but we should expect more than what has been shown so far.  Look around the league at the aces of staffs on winning teams; you won’t find one with a 4.98 ERA.  This is not a classic Philly overreaction.  I would love someone to make a good argument on the fact that the ace of the pitching staff has a losing record and a 4.98 ERA with the All Star break fast approaching is no ig deal.  If you can do that, I””d love to hear it.

Like I said, it hasn’t been all bad.  But, statistically speaking, there are a few glaring points of concern.  As far as strikeouts, walks, pitches per inning, and quite a few other stats, Hamels is faring right around normal.  But, he has given up 107 hits in 85 innings.  In his 3 previous seasons, Hamels surrendered well less than one hit per inning.  His ERA in his other 3 seasons was 4.08, 3.39, 3.09 respectively, compared to 4.98 this season.  His batting average against were .237, .237, and .227.  This season, opponents are hitting at a .312 clip against Hamels.  It is pretty clear that Hamels is just way more hittable than he has ever been.

The question that no one knows the answer to is, why?  How can a 25 year old ace and Worl Series MVP suddenly look so average?  Well, I don’t think anyone knows for sure.  There have been whispers that his arm is a bit tired due to the 260+ innings Hamels pitche last year.  That was by far a career high.  Hamels has insisted that he feels fine, but there are times, like last night, where his fastball velocity drops drastically after a few innings.  Obviously, a tired arm would cause the location of his pitches to be off, which would account for his struggles.  But, why has he looked so good in other starts?  Maybe there are games where his arm feels strong, and times where it doesn’t.  No pitcher feels 100% all the time, but a .312 average against is much more than that.

The only other explanation I can think of is that teams have a very clear scouting report on Hamels, and he has become predictable.  Hamels’ changeup is his out pitch, but it seems like opposing hitters know when it is coming.  Maybe he is tipping his pitches, or maybe he has just become too predictable and teams have him scouted to perfection.  Either way, adjustments need to be made.

No matter what the issue is, one thing is very certain:  In order for the Phillies to have another great run, they need Cole Hamels the ace, not Cole Hamels the mediocre pitcher.

Right about the time I post this, NBA free agency will be underway.  Usually that brings about a lot of excitement.  Last year at this time, the Sixers made a huge splash by signing Elton Brand.  Everyone knew that with a new GM and a lot of money to spend under the salary cap, the Sixers were going to try and make a big score.  They got their man, but the acquisition of Brand has yet to pay dividends.  Boy, how times have changed!

This season, the Sixers are over the salary cap.  It appears that the first order of business for Ed Stefanski is to start the conversations regarding the return of Andre Miller.  The Sixers can pay Miller as much as they want, regardless of the cap situation.  It remains to be seen what kind of market will be out there for Miller.  It looks as though the strategy will be to talk with Miller and his agent and make their play to resign him.  Whether they do or not will determine the other pieces the Sixers go after.

The options are pretty simple for the Sixers this summer.  In regards to Miller, they can sign him, not sign him, or work a sign and trade.  Currently, the Sixers have 10 players under contract, if you include Jrue Holiday.  So, regardless of what happens with Miller, the Sixers have spaces to fill.  They can use the mid level exception and veteran minimum as far as salary for free agents.  The mid level exception is between 5 and 6 million dollars per year.  I have scoured the list of free agents, both restricted and unrestricted and I came away unimpressed.  This summer is one of those scenarios where Stefanski and the Sixers are going to need to be creative.  They surely have a plan, and that plan will begin to unfold in the coming weeks. 

Normally, I might lay out what I would like to see the Sixers do in free agency.  But, since I am not a fan of about 90% of the available players, I will keep my opinion simple.  I am now convinced that signing Miller is a good move, but only if he will sign for 2 years.  If Miller wants a much longer contract for too much money, I don’t think it’s worth it.  I don’t want to see Stefanski signing players just to try and gain a few more wins this season.  The Sixers can’t end up in the same situation Billy King stuck them with again.  The Sixers will make a few moves this summer, and starting in about a half hours, news will be trickling out about what those moves might be.  If Stefanski gets creative and pulls a few rabbits out of his hat, I will be pleasantly surprised.  Stay tuned.

The benching is over…for now.  Charlie Manuel announced that Jimmy Rollins will be back in the starting lineup tonight, after Manuel sat Rollins down for a four game benching/mental breather.  Will the break give Rollins a much needed boost?  That remains to be seen.  Manuel certainly feels like it was the right thing to do, and I agree with his decision.  In reality, it was the only decision to make.  It was either that, or continue to watch Rollins struggle and press too hard to make things happen.  He needed to just take a little break and relax.  Manuel has said that the two have been talking throughout the benching, and if that’s the case then my guess is Manuel told Rollins all along, “You’re my guy.”  Charlie Manuel knows his players better than any of us, and he also knows that the Phillies are a better team when Rollins is going well.  There is no other option.  Is anybody excited about the prospect of Eric Bruntlett playing everyday?  I didn’t think so.  I have been as disappointed as anyone else with Rollins so far this season, but I think everyone needs to temper their frustrations a little bit.

We all know the numbers, but in case you don’t have them memorized, here they are:

.211 AVG, 41 R, 63 H, 15 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 16 BB, 32 K, 10 SB, .254 OBP

Obviously, not pretty.  But, my brother recently made a very good point in that there are many fans that view Rollins as the player he was during his amazing 2007 MVP season.  Unfortunately, that season was, by far, his best statistical season in almost every category.  His other 7 full seasons in the big leagues are a much better barometer of what we should expect from Jimmy Rollins.  So, I took my brother’s point a little further because I love beating things into the ground.

As bad as Rollins’ season has been so far, here is what his stats project out to for 162 games:

95 R, 145 H, 35 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 62 RBI, 23 SB, 37 BB, 74 K

Now, those numbers would assume that he would hit .211 and have an OBP of .254 at the end of the season.  If we eliminate Rollins’ 2007 numbers from the equation and use his other 7 full seasons, his averages look like this:

.274 AVG, 100 R, 176H, 38 2B, 10 3B, 14 HR, 64 RBI, 37 SB, 54 BB, 86 K, .327 OBP

As you can see, besides average, on base percentage, and hits, Rollins is on pace to have his normal year.  Those categories really go hand in hand, so it’s pretty simple.  Look at it from this way: There are 89 more games in the season.  Rollins needs to average one more hit every 3 games to be right where he normally ends up every season.  His average, his OBP, and hits would be right where they have always been.  I’ll use the immortal words of “Crash” (Kevin Costner) to “Nuke” (Tim Robbins) to illustrate my point:

“Know what the difference between hitting .250 and hitting .300?  It’s 25 hits.  25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay?  There’s 6 months in a season, that’s about 25 weeks.  That means if you get one extra flare a week-just one-a gork, you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes…you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week…and you’re in Yankee Stadium.”

For those of you who don’t like great movies, that quote is from “Bull Durham”.  It shouldn’t be too hard for Rollins to average one more hit a week than he has been.  If he does that, his numbers will be just about even with 7 of his 8 other big league seasons.

I think Rollins is too good to hit .211 for the season.  He has struggled, no doubt, but one good month and his numbers will be decent.  Fans need to settle down just a bit.  I am always amused and confused in cases like this when I hear people say they are “sick” of Rollins or that the Phillies should “get rid of him”.  That just doesn’t make sense.  My question is always: And then what?  Who is the shortstop?  When a player like Rollins is struggling, you can’t just replace him.  There are no options on the team, and that is not the type of trade the Phillies need to be making.  Not that any team would give up a great shortstop anyway.  Baseball sometimes mirrors the real world, and in the real world no one is going to trade you their brand new fully loaded 5-series for your 2001 Toyota Camry with 100,000 miles and in need of a new transmission.  Think before you make ridiculous statements, please. 

So, tonight Rollins will be back, and in my opinion, this can only be a good thing for the Phillies.  It has been easy to point the finger at Rollins lately, but he isn’t the only Phillie who has been having terrible at bats during the recent struggles.  If Rollins is even marginally better than he has been, the Phillies improve.  How much worse can he really get?  He will be back in his usual leadoff spot, which I also agree with.  The Phillies aren’t really comprised of a bunch of prototypical leadoff men, including Rollins.  Victorino is about the same historically as Rollins when it comes to statistics.  I’d rather see Rollins getting on base in front of the big RBI men rather than in front of Carlos Ruiz.  Rollins has had his mental break, so we will see what his approach and focus is starting tonight.  Either way, I am sure he will continue to be the topic of a lot of discussion in the Illadelph.

Going into last night’s NBA draft, I think most people knew that the Sixers were going to draft a guard.  The only question was: Which one?  The answer ended up being Jrue Holiday from UCLA.  I wrote yesterday about how I think it is extremely hard to project what type of pro a player will be and I am sticking to that.  I said that I would “analyze” the pick, and I will, but not from the standpoint of telling you whether or not I think he will be a great pro.  I have been reading quite a bit on last night’s draft.  I’ve read everything from newspapers, national sites, blogs, you name it, I’ve read it.  The majority of what I have read is positive on the Sixers pick of Holiday.  The word is that Holiday slipped to the 17^th pick due to some teams being a bit concerned with a shoulder injury.  Like I said yesterday, I think most of what people say about players before the draft and after the draft is a bit recycled.  No one really knows who will be good and who won’t.  That is why I won’t predict anything in regards to Holiday.  People use terms like “upside” and “potential” when they discuss the NBA draft.  Well, damn, I would hope every player has both of those things!  Why else would they be in the NBA draft?  Everyone seems to just regurgitate what they read and hear someone else say because it sounds good.  But, no one really knows.

What I will analyze is pretty simple.  Did the Sixers make a good pick based on how the draft played out?  Not, will Jrue Holiday be a great point guard? I think Holiday is a good player.  Up until recently, I was a resident of Los Angeles and saw him first hand.  I suspect a lot of the Sixers fans throwing out their opinions may have seen him 5 times on TV.  Holiday is big and strong for a guard, but he did not play much point at UCLA.  I won’t do a whole scouting report because the reality is you have probably already seen a million and they all say the same things.  Does Holiday have potential?  Of course!  He has the potential to be good and he has the potential to be out of the NBA in 5 years, just like every other player drafted last night.  So, once again, was it a good pick?  Well, I am not against the pick whatsoever, especially since the Sixers desperately needed a guard.  If I was doing one of those posts where I hand out grades on each pick, I would probably land in the middle with the Sixers.  What is my reason?

It’s actually simple.  I have stated over and over that the draft is a crapshoot.  So much so that you may have stopped reading by now because you think I’m an ass.  But, if it truly is a crapshoot, then the best any GM can do is project so I don’t blame anyone for doing that.  Still, if you are going to project, shouldn’t you go with facts?  The fact is, no matter what anybody says or what Holiday tells you about being out of position in college, he wasn’t a point guard.  Don’t get me wrong, Holliday was drafted as a point guard and that will be his position in the NBA, but there were 2 highly rated point guards on the board when the Sixers were on the clock: Eric Maynor and Ty Lawson.  Regardless of what happens with Andre Miller, the Sixers need a point guard, plain and simple. I trust that the Sixers know a lot more about all of this than I do, so that is why I am not saying they were wrong.  All I am saying is that Lawson and Maynor have been point guards since Prohibition.  On the flip side, when draft “experts” use the term “value” when discussing the draft, the Sixers definitely score high there.  Anytime you get a kid who was as highly rated out of high school as Holiday, and played at UCLA for just one year, with the 17^th pick, you have succeeded in the value department. 

I guess all I’m really saying is I probably would have gone in a different direction, but I’m not an NBA GM.  Although, based on a lot of picks last night and over the years, that’s a good thing.  Holiday could turn out to be a great pick, or he might not.  But, I think we all need to actually see the kid play a few NBA games before we anoint him the Sixers point guard for the next 10 years.  If that’s what he turns out to be, then I will be as happy as anyone, and I will applaud Ed Stefanski.

It’s that time of year again!  That’s right, the 2009 NBA draft takes place tonight, with the Sixers currently holding the 17^th pick.  There have already been a number of trades involving draft picks, as well as a mega trade that will now pair Shaq with LeBron.  So, who will the Sixers take with the 17^th pick?  No one has a clue, and if you say you do, well then you’re either lying or your name is Ed Stefanski.  I have never been a fan of the over coverage of the NFL and NBA drafts.  It just serves to fill up TV and radio time, because the reality is, no one really knows what teams will do, and no one really knows how a player will pan out as a professional, especially in the NBA. 

There are only 2 rounds in the NBA draft, and quite a few of the players drafted never get a sniff of the NBA game for a few years if at all.  Yet, every blogger, sportswriter, radio personality, and TV analyst puts their 2 cents in on evaluating, projecting, and guessing.  I am not going to do any of that.  I can honestly say that I know the game of basketball more than most people, but there are hundreds of cases of players I thought would be good and they weren’t and vice versa.  Just look at how poorly so many general managers have drafted around the league.  There may be a few can’t misses, although even those are never sure things.  I mean, hell, Bill Simmons has a column he has written a few times entitled “The Atrocious GM Summit” to honor how stupid many of the picks/trades that NBA GM’s make are.  No one knows what will happen in tonight’s draft, and no one truly knows which players will be all stars and which will be flops.  Most of the players have talent, although it can be argued that many do not have NBA level talent, but it is impossible to determine how a player will react once he is thrust into the NBA world and the NBA game.  With, the Sixers picking at #17, it becomes even more of a crapshoot as to whether or not the player they draft will ever be a successful NBA player.  Do I need to run through the list of Sixers draft picks that were much higher than #17?  I didn’t think so.

There seems to a common question that is posed when discussing the draft.  Do you draft the best player available or draft at a position of need no matter what the value of the pick is?  Well, this year, it seems the only thing that we know with relative certain is that the Sixers will be drafting a guard.  Unless, of course, we are surprised by a big trade, but my guess is that won’t happen.  Ed Stefanski has pretty much told everyone that the Sixers aren’t looking at big men.  NBA GM’s certainly don’t like everyone knowing their strategy, but I think in this case we can trust the words.  What we don’t know is which guard the Sixers will draft.  Will it be Ty Lawson?  Eric Maynor?  Brandon Jennings?  Jeff Teague?  Wayne Ellington?  No one knows.  I “like” all of thos players, but that really means nothing at this point.  Sure, I will analyze the pick after the draft, but again, no one knows.  It seems that one of the trades (the trade of Acie Law to Golden State for Jamal Crawford) may have helped the Sixers because the Warriors are now reportedly no longer interested in drafting a guard.  Either way, we will know later tonight what the Sixers thought process is, and after that we can only hope that they made the right choice. 

I hate to be negative but…Oh, who am I kidding?  I love being negative!  I have been meaning to write this post for some time now, but never got around to it.  It has been on my mind ever since it was announced that Jimmy Rollins was leading NL shortstops in votes for the All Star Game.  Thankfully, the most recent tally shows that Hanley Ramirez has taken over the top spot and Rollins is 2^nd.  That’s right…Jimmy Rollins has received almost 1.5 million votes to be the starting NL shortstop. 

This is a perfect example of why fans should not be given the power to select the all stars.  I have always been against it.  It is even more of a problem now that the game actually decides home field advantage in the World Series.  I understand that the game is designed to be an exhibition to entertain the fans, so I should have no problem with who makes the team.  But, I have always felt that the All-Star team should be made up of the best players that particular season.  Instead, we end up with a team full of players from mostly the major markets and that’s about it.  Then, the managers are forced to fill in the roster and there are always glaring snubs because they have to choose a player from each team.  I realize this isn’t a big deal, but I have always voted seriously when it comes to all star games.  I vote without bias.  I think ESPN and everyone else need to stop listing the number of all star selections a player has among their accomplishments.  I really don’t understand the mentality of voting for Jimmy Rollins this season.  Since I can remember, the argument has always been that the fans vote in the players they most want to see play.  Ok, fine.  The problem with that argument is, the fans that are voting for Rollins are not living in Missouri.  They are here in Philly.  We see him every damn day!  Not to mention, the Philly fans should be the ones most frustrated with Rollins’ play so far this year.  Why would anyone check his name on the ballot?  If you take a look at the votes, it is obvious that the fans in the major baseball markets are the ones casting most of the votes.  I would love if they took the fan vote away.

The Rollins case is a perfect example of the problem this causes.  Some may not see it as a problem, but I do.  At least, until we stop using being an all star as any kind of barometer.  I mean, players even get bonuses for making the team!  Just think about this:

Out of the 10 NL shortstops with at least 200 at bats, Rollins ranks 9^th in average and 10^th in OBP.  It is late June and he is still flirting with the Mendoza line, yet 1.5 million fans voted for him to start.  Now, it is looking like Hanley Ramirez will end up winning, thankfully, but if he doesn’t then there’s a chance someone gets snubbed.  If the team only goes with 2 shortstops, the other would likely be Ramirez, which would leave out Miguel Tejada.  Tejada leads all NL shortstops in hits, doubles, and RBI, and is 2^nd in average, OBP, and slugging percentage.  Even if it wasn’t Tejada who was snubbed, Rollins would take up a spot that should go to someone who has earned it. 

I hate to rip on Rollins because I am a fan of the guy, but come on people!  Everyone has the right to pick whomever they feel like on their ballot, but I don’t have to agree with it.  Apparently, there are at least 1.5 million people that I disagree with so far. 

Most of us enjoy the comfort of our homes.  When we are away for an extended period of time, it is always nice to come home to our own beds.  That is why there are so many phrases like, “Home is where the heart is”, “Home sweet home”, or “There’s no place like home”.  It is nice to get away every once in awhile, but we all just feel more comfortable when we are in the familiar surroundings of home.  Well, all of us except for the 2009 Phillies it seems.  I have been biting my tongue on writing about this topic because I figured it would turn around.  The Phillies have been awful at home and great on the road.  At the beginning of the season, I chalked the Phils failures at Citzens Bank Park up to a World Series hangover.  But, now we are 32 home games into the season and the Phillies have a record of 13-19.  Compare that to a 23-9 road record and you have a legitimate head scratcher.  I mean, seriously, what the hell is going on here?  Usually teams that reach the postseason play way above .500 at home and right around .500 on the road. There as to be an explanation, right?  I have been doing a lot of thinking and researching and picking a lot of people’s brains on this topic, and I haven’t heard any good explanations.  What I decided to do is come up with my best explanation.  I am not saying I am right, because the likelihood is that the Phillies terrible play at home is just one of those crazy anomalies in sports.  It is something that has no explanation, but in Philly that isn’t good enough, so I am giving my attempt at solving the mystery.

First, we need to understand just how bad the Phillies have been at home.  Currently, only 2 teams in all of MLB have worse home records.  Those 2 teams are the Nationals and Diamondbacks, the worst and 4^th worst teams in baseball respectively.  Not very good company.  The only reason the Phillies are holding on to first place at the moment is that they have the best road record in baseball.  Oh, and the Mets are currently playing with a minor league roster.  But, that is what makes this all so puzzling.  How can the defending World Champions be so great on the road, yet so bad at home?  It makes absolutely no sense.  In the previous 2 seasons when the Phillies reached the postseason, they went 47-34, and 48-33 at home.  In order to reach that mark this season, the Phillies would have to go 35-14 in their remaining home games.  That is certainly doable, but if you have seen them play this year at the Bank, it is hard to see that happening.

Now, before I get to my theory, I wanted to mention an interesting fact I found.  In the last 2 seasons, the Phillies were not a great home team when compared to other teams that reached the postseason.  In those 2 seasons, out of the 14 other teams that played in October, only the Cubs in 2007 had a worse home record than the Phillies.  That was a very average Cubs team that won a weak NL Central with only 85 wins.

There has obviously been a lot of discussion in the media and around town about the poor start by the Phillies at home.  I have heard 2 main theories that are directly opposite of each other: 1) The Phillies are feeling too much pressure to win at home and duplicate the success of last season, and 2) The Phillies are not feeling enough pressure and are riding on their own coattails of success.  Charlie Manuel even hinted at the latter theory a little while back.  I understand where these theories are coming from because, like I said, everyone is searching for some kind of explanation.  But, I disagree with both of them.  First of all, when we talk about pressure, where does that com from?  It comes from within.  Fans and media can make the pressure more intense, but ultimately if an athlete feels pressure, that comes from themselves.  I have been down to the ballpark and watched every single game either live or on TV, and I see no evidence of the fans putting pressure on the team.  But, I do understand that it is possible to try too hard to live up to expectations.  I am not going to say that it is impossible that is what is going on, but I don’t think that’s what it is.  I went back and looked at the two most recent cases of teams in big markets and big baseball cities that had histories of heartbreak and then finally broke through and won a championship.  Those two teams are the 2004 Boston Red Sox and the 2005 Chicago White Sox.  By this first theory, the fact that a team has finally reached the top, causes them to then struggle to reach to perform under the raised expectations.  Now, since we are simply talking about playing well in the regular season at home, and not the end result of the season, we will only look at that.  In 2004, the Red Sox went 55-26 at home and then 54-27 in 2005.  In 2005, the White Sox went 47-34 at home and then 49-32 the following year.  There was absolutely no drop off or hangover whatsoever.  My opinion on both of these theories is that they hold no water for the same reason.  I have always felt that teams cannot just turn switches on and off when they feel like it and be successful.  So, in a long baseball season, I don’t see how either theory makes sense.  How can the Phillies be playing so well on the road, and so terrible at home?  That would mean they can flip a switch once they are out of South Philly.  The second theory that Charlie Manuel intimated really suggests a lack of focus or concentration.  Granted, there have been signs of the Phillies lacking focus, but I don’t see how this would only happen at home.  For this theory to have any merit, someone needs to explain how the team can flip their focus switch on when they are on the road.  I just don’t feel that these theories explain what we have witnessed so far this season.

So, I have done all this yapping and still haven’t provided my own theory or explanation.  Well, mine is actually quite simple, I think.  It is a combination of 2 factors: 1) The pitching staff, and 2) Citizens Bank Park.  I am not blaming the ballpark at all, so let me explain.  What I mean, is that the Phillies pitchers are not comfortable at home and they are not the type of pitching staff that can succeed at home.  I am going to give you some statistics for this season to back this up, but for the sake of full disclosure, I will tell you that when I examined the hitting stats for this season, they are also much better on the road, but I have a bit of a theory on that.  First let’s look at the pitching stats for home and away:

HOME

32 Games- 5.40 ERA, .284 BAA, 1.59 WHIP

177 ER, 137 BB, 56 HR allowed

AWAY

32 Games- 4.15 ERA, .259 BAA, 1.32 WHIP

133 ER, 97 BB, 42 HR allowed

Now, those numbers aren’t great either on the road or at home, but to me, they are staggeringly skewed.  Like I said, the hitting stats are better on the road as well, but not nearly as skewed as the pitching.  Everybody knows the old cliché that “good pitching beats good hitting”.  On this site we have been examining the stats for the 2009 Phillies and I have constantly stated that no matter what the Phillies record says, the pitching stats suggest a very serious problem.  I believe that the 13-19 home record is a direct manifestation of that problem.  We all know that the Phillies pitching isn’t great.  But, the big problem is, when you combine very suspect pitching with a ballpark like the Bank, you have a chance to have some very bad results.  In a hitters’ park, the pitching staff needs to have guys who are ground ball pitchers as well as strikeout pitchers.  The Phillies staff is average at best when it comes to strikeouts and we have all seen their propensity to allow balls to be hit in the air.  Great pitching can level the playing field in an offensive oriented ballpark.  The Phillies do not have the staff to do that.  To play devils advocate with myself, this begs 2 questions: 1) Why then are the hitters struggling at home?, and 2) Why was this not an issue last season with largely the same staff.  To answer the second question, I think it is simply a case of a magical season.  Brad Lidge was perfect, the entire bullpen was great, and Jamie Moyer had 16 wins.  Everything just came together.  The first question is a little different and harder to answer.  Earlier I stated that I believe that athletes put pressure on themselves.  I disagreed with the 2 theories that have been thrown out to explain the poor showing at home.  But, where it does come into play a little is if you combine it with my theory.  If we agree that the pitching staff is neither suited for nor comfortable pitching at home, then we know that it is likely that a lot of runs will be surrendered.  Don’t you think the rest of the team knows that?  The hitters may feel that in order to win they need to score 8 runs.  They put too much pressure on themselves to produce runs.  It has nothing to do with winning last season, or the fans, or the media.  In addition, the pitchers feel they have to make a perfect pitch, where on the road they may not feel the same way.  That could explain how they have walked 40 more hitters at home. 

Again, this is just my explanation of what has taken place so far.  I firmly believe that with the current pitching staff, there is no chance of making the postseason.  Changes need to be made and they need to be made soon.  Whatever happens, I think we can all agree that the Phillies chances of repeating are slim if they continue to play losing baseball at home.  Is there the possibility that this all gets straightened out and the Phillies start winning at home again?  Absolutely.  The Phillies better hope it turns around soon, or the so called “pressure” from the fans will be impossible to miss.

I am not going to link anything, nor am I going to waste space on this site actually talking about this.  All I have to say is, there are a lot of good blogs out there, and there are a lot that are just jackasses starving for attention.  I am glad that we are associated with quite a few good writers who actually have interesting things to say and don’t use their sites strictly for attention and to make ludicrous comments with no substance.  I am sure most of you who read this blog know what I am referring to, so I’ll leave it at that.  If I ever fall prey to these kinds of tactics, please find me, take my computer smash it over head, and then repeatedly punch me in the face until I remember what the whole point of being able to write for a blog is supposed to be.