Heard in the Cheap Seats

Watching the Villanova game last night, you kept waiting for the moment when the Wildcats would start their furious charge to the finish.  It has happened so many times before for this Villanova team that fans were left believing something big was in the works.

When Nova closed out the first half with a run to narrow the gap to nine points, Wildcat fans had to feel good about the effort.  Despite allowing 49 points to the Tar Heel offensive juggernaut, the Wildcats were still within 10 points.  With a few more defensive stops and knocking down of open looks, Villanova would be right back in this thing.

Or at least so it seemed.

When things started to break right to start the second half, the Villanova faithful was convinced they would be rewarded for their blind faith.  Villanova had closed the gap to five points and had this UNC team reeling.  But it was not meant to be—not on this night.  Villanova eventually fell to the to the Tar Heels 83-69.

On a night when Villanova needed to play one of its best games of the season, it instead went ice cold from beyond the arc.  After falling in a deep hole, Nova fell victim to playing catch up and hoisting up threes at a staggering rate.  And on a night when the rim appeared smaller for the Wildcats, a three-point shootout was not going to get the job done. As a team, Villanova shot 33% from the field and 18% from three-point land. On the other end, North Carolina was 40% from the field and 50% from downtown.  Had it not been for North Carolina’s poor shooting performance from the free throw line this game may have been more lopsided than the final result.

Villanova did not lose this game because of the physicality of North Carolina or because they were awe struck by the mystique of UNC.  In fact, Nova came out aggressively and held its own on the glass.  It did not lose because the stage at Ford Field was too grand or the lights were too bright.  Jay Wright would not let his boys succumb to the pressure of the Final Four.

No, Villanova lost this game because UNC was the better team.  To knock off the Tar Heels, Villanova needed to summon some March Madness magic and there were just no more tricks left in the hat.  UNC simply played like the talented team of future NBA players that it was and Villanova could not keep pace.

On this night, Villanova fans were left waiting until after the final buzzer for a piece of magic that never came.

Villanova finds itself in a familiar position.  This year’s version of the Wildcats has thrived in games where the odds were seemingly stacked against them.  It might be a trait they got from Villanova teams of days gone by as no school in the history of the NCAA tournament has erased more chalk than Villanova.

Tonight, they will look to pull out those erasers again against the University of North Carolina Tar Heels.

Knocking off the Tar Heels will require a herculean effort from a team that is playing at is best level of the season.  Villanova needs to be prepared for the speed and athleticism of UNC.  There are few teams in the nation, if any, that can get up and down the floor like the Tar Heels.  That run and gun attack is fueled by Ty Lawson.  Undoubtedly, Lawson is the key to this UNC team.  His ability to attack the floor from end-to-end and create opportunities through dribble penetration is a tough matchup for Villanova.  Scottie Reynolds needs to be up to the task.  Aside from Reynolds’ game-winning shot against Pitt, he has largely struggled in this tournament to find his offensive rhythm.  If Lawson is able to keep Reynolds out of the lane by shutting down his dribble penetration than Nova will be in for a long night.  

But this North Carolina team is not untouchable.  If they do have an Achilles Heel it’s the ability to defend.  Roy Williams’ bunch has a tendency to slip into prolonged lapses on defense—making it all too easy for the opposition to score at will.  Because of this, Villanova should constantly be on the attack tonight and refuse to settle for three-point attempts.  The problem with UNC is they score at such a high clip that trying to keep pace from beyond the arc is a fool’s game.  Dante Cunningham could have a big game tonight and will need one if Villanova will advance to the championship game.  Although Cunningham does have a size disadvantage down low, he also posses a quickness advantage over Tyler Hansbrough and Deon Thompson.  Cunningham will look to take those UNC defenders out of their comfort zone by consistently knocking down shots from 15-18 feet.

On the defensive end of the floor, Cunningham and his other low-post teammates will be in for a tough task.  Defending UNC on the block is a difficult proposition.  The motor of Tyler Hansbrough is renowned and you can bet he will be fired up for the game tonight.  There is little doubt that Hansbrough will be all over the floor and attacking the offensive glass.  Villanova must limit second chance points.

So it’s easy right?  Shut down the vaunted UNC running attack by containing Ty Lawson; consistently beat the Tar Heels off the drive for easy buckets; test the defensive abilities of the UNC frontcourt; and keep Tyler Hansbrough off the offensive glass.

Piece of cake.

If this were a Broadway show, Villanova would be cast in its perfect role—as the underdog.  Its role that has already provided us with the stirring performance of the Pitt game.  Tonight against UNC, Villanova will need to summon one more Oscar worthy performance to propel themselves into the championship game.  I’m not sure they are ready to say cut.

In the spirit of April Fools (is there such a thing as the spirit of April Fools?), I wanted to have a little fun.  I don’t want to write a bunch of fake stories and throw a good old April Fools joke in at the end.  I thought I would throw together a few recent sports headlines that actually happened.  However, because it is April Fools, these are headlines that would normally seem like they were an April Fools joke and then became real.  I will also throw together some fun April Fools headlines that aren’t real.  I probably won’t stick to just Philly sports, but who knows where my mind will lead me.  So, first the real events that prior to them happening, would have made perfectly good April Fools jokes…

-          Brian Dawkins Signs With Denver Broncos

-          Brett Myers works a 9 pitch walk from C.C. Sabathia and draws a standing ovation

-          World Ph#$#ing Champions!!!

-          McNabb is benched at Halftime

-          World Series clinching game takes 4 days to play

-          Billy King is hired as an analyst for NBA TV

-          Marty Biron “stands on his head”

-          Eagles go with defensive tackle as #1 FB

-          Hank Baskett bags a Playmate

-          Eagles fans want Kolb instead of McNabb (Note: Not all of them, but seriously?)

-          After hitting a huge pinch hit home run in the NLCS Matt Stairs says, “When you get that nice celebration coming into the dugout and you’re getting your ass hammered by guys—there’s no better feeling than to have that done.”

-          Willie Green is a starting 2 guard in the NBA (sorry, couldn’t help it)

-          Tony DiLeo is Sixers new head coach

-          Jimmy Rollins is DH behind Derek Jeter for Team U.S.A.

-          Terrell Owens is in Buffalo

-          Jay Cutler wants out of Denver

-          Alex Rodriguez took steroids (Wait, nevermind, we all knew that)

-          Isaiah Thomas may be hired by Clippers

-          Arizona Cardinals play in a Super Bowl

Ok, I ran out of ideas on that, so maybe some people out there have some good ones to add.  Now, we are moving on to headlines that are truly for April Fools…

-          Eagles wide receiver leads the league in TD receptions

-          Eagles run/pass ratio is 54/46

-          Andy Reid is on the cover of Men’s Health magazine

-          Donovan McNabb demands a trade to Buffalo to be reunited with T.O.

-          Just to “shake things up”  Andy Reid switches defensive line to OL and vice versa

-          In order to build up the public support for himself, Kevin Kolb starts showing up around town with Heather Mitts

-          Eagles retire Koy Detmer’s neck beard

-          It is revealed that all this time Joe Banner was under the impression that the team would be fined $1 million dollars for any player over 34 on the roster

-          McNabb is diagnosed with a nasty case of IBS that takes about 3 hours after a meal for the symptoms to occur.  We then find out that he has a huge meal just prior to kickoff.

-          Andy Reid admits he had a “man crush” on Greg Lewis

-          Eagles fans ranked the classiest in the NFL by major national media outlets

-          A story is actually done about Philly fans that doesn’t mention booing Santa Clause

-          Charlie Manuel is voted “Interview of The Year”

-          Brett Myers reveals, “I pitch better when I’m drunk.”

-          Ryan Howard wins a Gold Glove

-          Jamie Moyer throws a fastball that hits 85 on the radar gun and is immediately tested for steroids

-          Sixers are a 3 point shooting machine

-          Thaddeus Young admits that he is really Shannon Sharpe

-          Aaron Mckie shares his secrets on the proper way to paint on a beard

-          Samuel Dalembert finally “gets it”

-          Reggie Evans doesn’t infuriate me

-          Sixers realize that Marreese Speights should play more than 8 minutes

-          Standing room only for all Sixers games at the Wachovia Center

-          Ed Snider admits that he hates basketball and actually forgot he owns the team

-          Reggie Evans and Bob Salmi are spotted in Fairmount Park…Holding each others hands, and their lunch pails

-          Prior to a playoff series Cleveland coach Mike Brown is asked what worries him about a match up with the Sixers, and he says, “We have to get a hand in the face of their shooters, especially Iguodala, and the low post presence of Dalembert is something we have to stop.”

-          Paul Holmgren trades Jeff Carter, Simon Gagne, and Claude Giroux, and explains it by saying, “We need more tough guys.  That’s what wins in today’s NHL.  If I could have 20 Riley Cote’s on my team, I would.”

-          Eric Lindros and Bobby Clarke are seen vacationing in Ocean City together

-          John Stevens and Paul Holmgren decide to eliminate all goalies from the roster

-          Holmgren says trading Upshall for Carcillo happened because he lost a side bet in a hand of poker

-          John Calipari hires John Chaney as his assistant at Kentucky

-          Kobe Bryant is voted Teammate of the Year

-          Greg Oden’s birth certificate is found and shows he was actually born in 1957

-          Sam Cassell is a martian!

-          Dick Vitale says something negative about Duke or North Carolina

-          Jay Bilas states that his favorite player of all time was Gumby due to his “infinite length”

-          A real National Champion is decided in college football

Honestly, I could go on and on, but I won’t.  Maybe some people out there have some great ones to add.  I have a ton, but it would become never ending.  Please add any funny April Fools headlines, either real ones or fake to the comments if you have any.  Happy April Fools!

Everyone has seen it a hundred times by now I’m sure.  The play that sent Villanova to the Final Four for the 4^th time in the school’s history and the first time since 1985 was as good as you’re going to get for the ending of a college basketball game.  The game itself was one of the most entertaining college basketball games I have seen in a long time, and was indicative of why I love Big East basketball.  To me, the best basketball games aren’t necessarily the games where both teams score over 100 points and the game goes up and down the court like a track meet.  I enjoy games like the Pittsburgh/Villanova contest.  I enjoy basketball games where both teams play physical, there is great defense on both sides, clutch shot making, and of course a game winning shot with less than 1 second on the clock certainly doesn’t hurt.  I am not going to break down the game because it’s a bit late for that, and it has been analyzed and broken down very well by many people already.  But, what I wanted to do is talk about that final play.  The one every Villanova fan will remember for the rest of their lives.  I have now had a chance to watch the Scottie Reynolds play about 50 times, and it is just amazing the 50^th time as it was when I saw it live.  As amazing as “The Play” was, it should have never worked.  As a matter fact, in a great article by Bob Ford in the Inquirer, Jay Wright and his players admit that it never works in practice. 

I have watched “The Play” frame by frame, and to be quite honest, it worked for two reasons.  The first is simply that Villanova executed to perfection, but the second is the reason why I say it should have never happened: Pittsburgh completely blew it on defense.  That game should have gone into overtime.  What is great about sports, though, is that we are able to get amazing moments that live on through stories and for generations.  I’m glad that Pitt was able to aide Villanova in writing another chapter in the college basketball history books.  Moments like “The Play” usually combine equal parts greatness by one side and we usually get a “goat” on the other side.  Pitt played a great game, but in order for Scottie Reynolds to produce his miracle shot, he needed the entire Pitt team to screw up defensively.  Well, they obliged.  Now, all that is left is the second guessing for Pittsburgh.

So, here is how I saw it all break down as I watched it frame by frame.  Levance Fields’ free throw goes through the net to tie the game up with 5.5 seconds on the clock.  Reggie Redding takes the ball and it all begins.  From the very beginning Pitt’s defensive set up is a little confusing.  Villanova sends Dante Cunningham to the center of the court just past the 3 point line and Pitt initially has no one guarding him.  Levance Fields has his eyes solely on Reggie Redding and is playing a bit of center field just below the free throw line.  Dixon is playing behind Scottie Reynolds in order to force him to catch a pass going away from the basket.  If you watch it slowly, Sam Young creeps in behind Cunningham, and Fields seems to be cheating over towards Reynolds.  It looks as if the first option is for Reynolds to get the ball, which really should be what Pitt wanted anyway.  He was the furthest away from the basket and he would have not had his momentum going in the right direction.  There would be no way for him to get a quality shot up in 5 seconds if Dixon just stayed on his hip and turned him one time while the other Pitt defenders stayed tight to their men.  The fatal moment for Pitt happens before the ball is even in bounded.  Young is simply playing behind Cunningham making him an easy target, and for some reason, as each second passes, Dixon moves from behind Reynolds (who is essentially in a post up position), to playing ¾ defense with his left hand in the passing lane.  I have no idea why Dixon shifted his position, but the fact that he did allowed Reynolds to break full speed towards the basket and catch the pass from Cunningham with momentum.  Pitt was doomed right there.  Reynolds should have never been that free.  What is even more crazy is that as Reynolds receives the ball Dejuan Blair is caught in no mans land and Villanova has a 3 on 1 developing.  Think about that!  Think about how bad you have to screw up defensively to have a 3 on 1, when the other team has to travel the length of the court in 5 seconds.  Once Reynolds catches the ball, 3 Pitt defenders were already completely out of the play.  That’s unbelievable!  The other big Pitt mistake was made by Blair.  Granted Reynolds is quicker than Blair, but instead of moving his feet at all, Blair simply reaches his arm out to try and poke at the ball.  If Blair moved his feet, he may have bumped Reynolds, but I doubt there would have been any kind of foul called to decide the game.  Instead, Blair essentially ushers Reynolds right to the basket, and allows the shot to be made over a much smaller defender.  From there, Reynolds makes a great play and I would never take that away from him, but every time I watch it, I can’t help but notice that both Andersen and Clark are wide open.  Clark may have had a dunk had Reynolds decided to give the ball up, but we all know the result so no one is complaining.

It was an amazing play and Villanova did a great job of executing it to perfection, but Pitt simply had a bad defensive possession at the worst possible time.  “The Play” should have never happened.  But, it did, and I don’t think anyone could have thought of a better ending.

In the history of the NCAA tournament, no team has knocked off more higher-ranked teams than Villanova.  That is an accomplishment Villanova cemented last night with a 77-54 drubbing of the Duke Blue Devils at the TD Banknorth Garden in Boston.  Think about what this Wildcats teams has accomplished thus far in the tournament in knocking off UCLA and Duke—two of the most storied programs in college basketball.  It is not a feat to be scoffed at, yet you get the feeling there is more to come from this Villanova team.

After a poor first half against American to open the tournament, Villanova has been steamrolling its opponents.  Duke simply was not prepared for the defensive intensity that Jay Wright’s team brought to the table.  Prior to the game, it seemed that the toughest matchup for Villanova would be slowing down Episcopal Academy product Gerald Henderson.  Villanova did not just slow him down, they slammed the door shut.  Henderson was 1-14 from the field for 7 points.  Duke just can’t win a basketball game with that kind of production out of its leading scorer.  Even the smooth shooting Jon Scheyer was missing all night, finishing the evening with 13 points on 3-18 shooting. 

Duke lives and dies by the outside shot, and last night, its fate was sealed by poor perimeter shooting.  But don’t be fooled, this was not a mere case of a team-wide shooting drought.  The poor perimeter shooting was more a product of Villanova’s stifling defense than it was Duke’s bad night.  It seemed every time Duke had even an ounce of daylight to get a shot up from the perimeter a Villanova player was closing out on the play.  When Jay Wright looks at the game film today, he won’t see many wide open looks allowed by his boys. 

Duke shot 26% from the field and 18% from beyond the arc.  It was those numbers that gave Villanova fans pause at the end of the first half.  Despite Duke’s shooting ills, they only trailed the Wildcats by 3 at the half.  You had to assume that the shooting would improve in the second half and Villanova would need to find a better rhythm on offense.  But it never happened.  Villanova continued to attack on defense and was able to convert that into an insurmountable lead.

This Villanova team seems to be clicking on all cylinders at just the right time.  It will face a stiff test in fellow Big East foe Pitt for the right to play in the Final Four.  Villanova will once again be playing as the underdog in that game; a role it seems to relish.

If Villanova needs a comparison of the tempo and style of play it will see against Duke in the Sweet 16 showdown tonight in Boston, it needs to look no further than their own practices.

Villanova and Duke are strikingly similar teams that rely heavily on guard play and defensive pressure for the length of the court.  Neither Coach K nor Jay Wright stick to conventional wisdom and run out a lineup that includes 2 guards, 2 forwards and a center.  It is not uncommon for Wright to go to a 4-guard set that uses 6”8? Dante Cunningham as its de facto center.  For Wright, this allows him to turn up the defensive intensity for the length of the court and spread the floor on the offensive end—giving the solid guards of Villanova room to operate.  Against many teams this causes matchup problems but Duke has the personnel to counter with a similar look.  Duke will often go to sets that have the-yep you guessed it-6” 8? Kyle Singler playing the center spot.  Singler is a more versatile player than Cunningham in that he can knock down shots from beyond the three-point line.

Duke comes into the game off a dramatic win over a scrappy Texas team that refused to let the Blue Devils pull away.  On the other hand, Nova is riding the wave of an easy victory against UCLA in which the Wildcats played perhaps there best basketball game of the season.  This will be a tough test for Villanova that will require an effort similar to the UCLA game if they hope to advance to the Elite 8.

Here are the four keys to the game:

#1 Disrupt the Duke Offensive Rhythm: Outside of Gerald Henderson, Duke is a jump shooting team that lives or dies by the outside shot.  Villanova should look to apply some full-court pressure in an attempt to disrupt the flow of the Duke offense.  As the seconds on the shot clock dwindle, the Blue Devils can be forced into a poor shot from the perimeter.  If Villanova is able to force Duke to make difficult shots with a hand in their face, it could be a long night for Coach K and his boys.

#2 Strike Early and Often: There has been a lot of talk this week about the Duke mystique.  And it is true that Coach K has built one of the most storied programs in college basketball.  But for this matchup, the Villanova Wildcats actually have more postseason experience.  Duke has bowed out of the tournament before the second round each of the last two seasons, while Villanova just notched its fourth consecutive trip to the Sweet 16.  Greg Paulis is the only player on the Duke roster that has meaningful postseason minutes to his credit.  So what does this all mean?  Villanova needs to strike early and jump out to a quick start and force Duke to prove their mettle in tough situations.

# 3 Make Gerald Henderson Work: Gerald Henderson is what makes the Duke offense tick.  His athleticism and ability to get to the rim create opportunities for his teammates.  This is the one player that Villanova cannot let go off tonight.  When Henderson is penetrating at will, it opens up shooting lanes for the likes of Jon Scheyer and Singler.  This is a tough matchup for Nova.  If they over commit on the help, there are plenty of shooters for Duke that will be toeing the three point line.  At the same time, Henderson is too good for any one player to shut down entirely.  This means the Wildcats will need to play an intelligent brand of defense, helping in the lane when it does not let a shooter roam free and rotating to the open man.

# 4 Get a Third Contributor: Villanova has five guys that are capable of putting up big numbers: Cunningham, Scottie Reynolds, Corey Strokes, Corey Fisher and DeWayne Anderson.  In order to defeat Duke, you can almost certainly count on solid games out of Cunningham and Reynolds.  But the Wildcats will need a third player to turn up big tonight.  My gut tells me that guy will be Corey Strokes.  At 6”5?, he has the length to give Henderson some problems so I expect him to see significant minutes.  This is nothing more than a hunch, but I wouldn”t be surprised to see Strokes come up with 15 points and some solid defensive stops.

Many so-called pundits want you to buy into the Duke hype machine and view this as a mismatch.  It is not.  If Villanova is able to do the above things well, they just might be dancing their way into the Elite 8.

One of the two Philly teams is still dancing and bidding for a trip the Sweet 16.  While Temple fell after a hard-fought game against Arizona State, Villanova was able to overcome a 14-point deficit to squeak by a gritty American University team. 

Today, at the Wachovia Center, Villanova will square off with UCLA for a place in the Sweet 16.  Throw out what you think of Pac-10 teams when it comes to UCLA.  They are not the glitz and glamour, run and gun style typically associated with West-coast teams.  This UCLA team is perfectly capable of playing a grind it out type of game courtesy of their coach, Ben Howland, who came to UCLA after a stint at Pitt.

Both of these teams had hard-fought games in the first round.  As previously mentioned, it took a furious rally and relentless full-court pressure for the Wildcats to get by American University.  On the other hand, UCLA barely got by VCU in a game that came down to the final possession.

In all respects, these two teams are evenly matched.  UCLA is probably a bit more battle tested than Villanova.  This is a team that has been to the Final Four each of the past three seasons and has senior leadership in Darren Collison and Josh Shipp at the guard spots.  Not to be outdone, Villanova too has solid guard play from Scottie Reynolds and Corey Fisher, coupled with a formidable threat around the basket in Dante Cunningham.  Of course, this is essentially a home game for the Wildcats—playing in the friendly confines of the Wachovia Center.  While this could be a factor in the game, I would expect the senior leadership of UCLA to be able to manage the road test.

If either of these teams has a repeat performance of their first-round game they will find themselves on the quick path back to their respective campuses.  Villanova especially needs to overcome its tendency to play good basketball in spurts and string together 40 minutes of solid play.  In each of the last three games, ”Nova has paired an outstanding half with a poor performance on the other side.  While they managed to win two of those three games, it is a trend that needs to stop if they have any hope of advancing.

For me, the difference in this game will be Dante Cunningham.  The solid guard play of each team will likely balance each other out.  But I don”t think the Bruins will have an answer for Cunningham.  I look for him to impose his presence early and often.  The Wildcats will also likely turn on the full-court pressure in spots against the Bruins.  The more they are able to disrupt the flow of the Wildcats offense they better their chances.

It won”t be easy, but I expect Villanova to live to see another day.

The boys from the Main Line and North Philly are dancing.  Temple was able to sneak into the field of 65 by winning the A-10 title outright and is clicking on all cylinders at the ideal time.  On the opposite end of the spectrum, Villanova exited the Big East tournament after jumping out to a 10-point lead against #1 seen Louisville.   The loss was more of the same for the inconsistent Wildcats—they have shown they have the talent to beat any team in the county but lack the consistency to do it on a regular basis.

Despite Nova”’’s inconsistencies, I think they are positioned well to make a deep run into the tournament.  Their first-round game should be an easy win.  American is a decent team that beat perennial tourney team Holy Cross to gain a bid to the big dance.  But Villanova is essentially playing a home game and is vastly more talented than AU.  Barring any disasters, Nova should breeze into the second round.  The road gets considerably tougher from there, with potential matchups against UCLA and Duke.  If Villanova was to advance to the Elite Eight, it would likely find a familiar foe in Pitt.  If the Wildcats are going to make a deep run into the tournament, they need to step up their effort on the defensive end of the floor.  Nova has proved time and again that it can play with anybody at the offensive end of the floor but until it can match that level of play on defense they will continue to play Jekyll and Hyde.  The fact that the Wildcats have such solid guard play bodes well for their prospects in the tournament.   The leadership of Scottie Reynolds will be crucial to Nova”’’s success.  Reynolds needs to play under control, get his teammates involved and dictate the tempo of the basketball game.  With the ball in his hands at the end of games, his poor free throw shooting could come back to haunt Villanova. 

Villanova was given a gift by being able to play in front of the home crowds of Philadelphia to kick off the tournament.  Jay Wright will have his boys ready to go and make some noise in the Big Dance.

Temple on the other hand is playing the role of underdog from the start.  Fran Dunphy”’’s team is playing excellent baand is a dangerous matchup for any team in the first round.  The selection committee may have helped out Temple by matching them up against a very beatable Ariszona State team.   If Diontee Christmas is able to continue his torrid pace, Temple may just be able to pull of the first round upset.  But for Temple, that”’’s where it ends I am afraid.  The Owls would almost certainly face a hot Syracuse team in the second round—a matchup they are not quite capable of winning. 

How do you think the two Philly teams will fare in the tournament?  Does either team have a realistic shot at cutting down the nets in Detroit?

With the college basketball season winding down, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at the Big Five (+1) teams.  I wanted to look at where the teams currently stand, what the end of the regular season has in store for them, tournament chances/predictions, and the state of the programs moving forward. 

VILLANOVA WILDCATS (21-5 Overall, 9-4 Big East, 4-0 Big 5)

Jay Wright’s boys are the unquestioned best team in Philly.  They went undefeated against their four rivals, and sit at 9-4 in arguably the best conference in the country.  The Wildcats are ranked #14 in the country and are #10 in RPI.  Their NCAA tournament bid is a lock.  The only question remains their seeding.  Right now they would likely get a # 3 or 4 seed.  Of course, a lot can change between now and Selection Sunday.  It is entirely possible for ‘Nova to run the table in their remaining 5 games.  They have tough road games at Syracuse and ND, but both those teams are not playing their best basketball, home games against Georgetown and Providence, and a road game at Depaul.  Not easy by any stretch, but all games that ‘Nova should be favored to win.  After that, there is the grueling Big East Tournament.  A top four conference ranking will earn ‘Nova a 2 round bye, at worst they should get a 1 round bye.  The Wildcats are playing their best basketball right now, which is exactly how it’s scripted in a perfect world.  Usually, guard play is paramount in the NCAA Tournament, and ‘Nova certainly excels in that area.  Dante Cunningham gives them a low post presence, and they have a very good trapping style defense.  In order to go far, the Cats will need Cunningham to stay out of foul trouble, and get better contributions from guys like Pena and Clark.  ‘Nova is very beatable when they do not shoot well from the outside, so that can always become an issue.  It’s tough without seeing a bracket to make a true prediction, but this team is capable of making a Final Four run.  More likely, though, would be a visit to Sweet 16 and very possibly the Elite 8.

This program has officially arrived.  Jay Wright has been able to build a perennial Big East contender and has attracted top notch talent to the Main Line.  The guy can coach and he sure as hell can recruit.  ‘Nova will lose Cunningham, Anderson, and Clark.  All of them made nice contributions, with the biggest obviously being Cunningham.  So, they will have to replace size.  Antonio Pena has been improving steadily and will have a more prominent role next year.  The guards are in great shape with Reynolds, Fisher, Redding, and Stokes all returning.  But wait, it gets better for ‘Nova.  Jay Wright has compiled one of the top recruiting classes for 2009.  Being added to the mix are Dominic Cheek (no LOI yet), and Roman’s Maalik Wayns, as well Isaiah Armwood and Mouphtauo Yarou, who will both add some size to ‘Nova.  All four are ranked among the top 50 players in the country according to scout.com.  Not to mention, Villanova already has a verbal commitment from James bell, the 10^th ranked SF in the country for the class of 2010.  The future is looking pretty bright for Villanova and their fans.

TEMPLE OWLS (16-9 Overall, 8-3 Atlantic 10, 3-1 Big 5)

Fran Dunphy has done a great job this year with Temple.  The Owls have a chance to win the Atlantic 10 regular season title, sitting one game behind Dayton at the moment.  Currently, Temple has an RPI of 36, which is pretty strong.  They are certainly classified right now as a bubble team.  They have a couple nice wins against Penn St. and Tennessee, but they could use another signature win.  The Owls have 5 games remaining, and they are not the type of team who can just show up and win, so they will all be tough, but winnable games.  They have games against St. Bonaventure, LaSalle, St. Joe’s, GW, and a huge game at Dayton.  A win at Dayton would go a long way towards securing an NCAA tournament berth for the Owls.  Of course, they could always just win the A10 tourney and make it a moot point.  The Owls are led by Dionte Christmas and Lavoy Allen.  They won’t go anywhere without stellar play from those two.  Christmas relies heavily on his outside shot, which can cause problems for Temple if he is well defended or having an off shooting day.  My prediction is that the Owls pull off the upset of Dayton and reach the NCAA’s, where they will likely be a #12 or 13 seed.  My guess would be a one and done this year for the Owls, but stranger things have happened.

Temple is facing the daunting task of replacing Christmas next year.  The Owls are losing their top scorer (Christmas), their center (Olmos), along with Inge, who is a very solid contributor.  Total those losses up and they need to find a way to replace 34.5 ppoints, 13.3 boards, and 7.2 assists.  Lavoy Allen has the ability to be a star for the Owls.  He has improved in his sophomore season, but next year’s team will likely be Allen’s team.  There are some bright spots looking forward to next season for Temple.  Juan Fernandez has been getting better and better since he joined the team.  Fernandez along with Ryan Brooks, should give Temple a very solid backcourt next year.  Temple has signed a couple local kids in Khalif Wyatt (Norristown), and Rahlir Jefferson (Chester).  It’s tough to say what kind of year the Owls will have next year.  I think they will be pretty good depending on how improved Fernandez is next year and how high Allen raises his level of play.

ST. JOSEPH’S HAWKS (14-11 Overall, 7-4 Atlantic 10, 1-3 Big 5)

The Hawks have had an up and down year under Phil Martelli.  They are currently on a 3 game losing streak that has dropped them to 5^th place in the A10.  Not exactly the way you want to finish a season.  Their RPI currently sits at 80, and they have no real good wins on their resume.  Without winning the A10 tourney, it’s pretty safe to say that the Hawks will not be going dancing.  An NIT bid is much more likely for St. Joe’s.  The Hawks are not a deep team at all and about 95% of their scoring comes from 4 players.  They are led by Ahmad Nivins in both scoring and rebounding.  They have 5 games remaining, and like I said, they would have to win the A10 tourney in order to make the big dance.  Is it impossible?  Absolutely not.  This team has the ability to beat any team in their conference.  Of course, they will need huge numbers from Nivins, Govens, and Carr.  If Nivins gets in any foul trouble, this team is cooked.  They don’t have the talent to win without Nivins on the floor for most of the game.  Unfortunately, my prediction is that the Hawks will not go anywhere but the NIT.  This is not the year for St. Joe’s fans to rejoice.

Losing Nivins and Carr is definitely going to hurt the Hawks.  Govens, Hilliard, and Williamson will need to take control and lead this team.  The Hawks are very young, with 5 freshmen on the roster this year.  Moving forward, the young guys will need to step up, and with very little playing time, it is hard to say how productive they will be in the future.  In addition, Martelli has been able to land what looks to be a fairly solid recruiting clas.  They have size with David Bruce and Carl Baptiste.  Baptiste specifically is 6’8”, 240 pounds with a very good shooting touch.  According to ESPN, he should be a starter by his junior year.  They will also be adding the #22 ranked PG in the country in Carl Jones.  Jones is said to be small and extremely quick with a good shot.  It looks like he will be an exciting player to watch in the future.  He was highly thought of enough to be recruited by the likes of Marquette, Xavier, Providence, and USC.  Pretty good find by Martelli on this kid.  I think next year could be a struggle for the Hawks, but I doubt it will be too long before Martelli has them back at the top of the A10.

La SALLE EXPLORERS (14-11 Overall, 5-6 Atlantic 10, 2-2 Big 5)

I have to give the Explorers and coach John Giannini a lot of credit.  Yeah, I said it!  It has been an inconsistent year for LaSalle, filled with quite a few close losses.  They have lost two overtime games and another 3 games by a total of 11 points.  This is a team on the rise in my opinion.  They will not be playing in the NCAA tournament this year, and may not even be invited to the NIT, although I think they should.  An RPI of 110 and below .500 record in the A10 will do that to you.  The Explorers have balanced scoring ( 4 players average in double figues), and they have some pretty good size and athleticism.  This team needs to take that next step and believe that they can win the close games and they will be fine.

Now, I have some really good news for Explorer fans, and a bold prediction.  In my opinion, the next couple years are looking really good for LaSalle.  It is hard for a school like LaSalle to remain successful for extremely long stretches of time, but that doesn’t mean they can’t have their moment in the sun, too.  The top 6 scorers from this year’s team will be returning.  It will be a senior led bunch of guys.  That doesn’t mean they don’t have any young talent, though.  Jerrell Williams should continue to improve as a player, and then there is LaSalle’s best recruit in a very long time.  Aaric Murray of Glen Mills, one of the top centers in the country will be heading to LaSalle.  That is huge for them.  This kid has a chance to be special.  He is highly ranked, yet he hasn’t even been playing basketball for 4 years.  So, with all this being said, my prediction is that LaSalle finishes in the top 2 in the A10 nest year, as well as spending at least a little time in the top 25.  It’s been awhile, but I think it could happen if they can take that next big step as a team.

PENN QUAKERS (8-13 Overall, 4-3 Ivy League, 0-4 Big 5)

It is not easy to be a college basketball coach in the Ivy League.  Well, that’s obviously what Penn coach Glen Miller is.  It seems the days of Ivy League teams, like the Pete Carrill coached Princeton teams, and the Fran Dunphy coached Penn teams, competing against the big boys are gone.  Oh, one of them will win the league and make it as a #15 seed, but that’s about it.  Penn has an outside shot to catch Cornell for the league title this year, but they would need a lot of help.  They currently sit at 4-3, and that’s only after the 3 game winning streak they are riding.  The Quakers only have one player (Tyler Bernardini) averaging in double figures.  Penn has been playing better basketball of late, and the good news is that they still play every team ahead of them in the standings once.  I personally just don’t think they have enough to get it done.

The good news for Penn is that they are extremely young, so they should improve over the next couple years.  That improvement may be enough to put them back into the NCAA tournament.  Of Penn’s 5 leading scorers, 3 are sophomores, and 1 is a freshmen, so that bodes well for the Quakers in the next couple years.  Penn also has a couple recruits coming in that are regarded as pretty talented for Ivy League players.  My guess is that it won’t be long before the Penn Quakers are back atop the Ivy League.

DREXEL DRAGONS (14-11 Overall, 10-6 CAA, 2-0 in games against Big 5 schools)

I figured even though they aren’t part of the Big 5, I would briefly examine Drexel.  The (+1) of the Big 5 in Philly.  Poor Drexel…Always on the outside looking in.  Although they did beat both St. Joe’s and Penn head to head.  The Dragons are right in the thick of a jumbled CAA pack.  They definitely have a chance to make the big dance if they can win their conference tourney.  My guess is they will make a run at it, but fall short.  Bruiser Flint’s guys play hard, but it likely won’t be enough. 

Moving forward, the Dragons will lose Rodgers, Hawthorne and most of their top scorers.  As far as recruiting is concerned, Drexel still does not have any signed letters of intent, so it’s tough to say what the team will look like next year.  The Dragons will likely be led by Givens, Colds, and Neisler, and look to those guys to step up and account for the losses to graduation.

For the most part it looks like most of the Big 5 is in pretty good shape now and moving forward.  Either way, the Big 5 is one of the greatest traditions in college basketball.  If you haven’t been to the Palestra to catch a Big 5 game, you are missing out.   

One of the great things about being a huge sports fan is that there is always something to watch on TV.  If you are a fan of one of the regular television comedies or drams, you have to wait a week between shows, and even then they are not year round.  Well, tonight is one of those fun nights for me as a sports fan.  My back is sore from shoveling that heavy snow, ice, and rain mix, and I wasn’t in the mood to go out.  Instead, I watched the final college basketball game at our beloved Spectrum, flipped to the Wake Forest, Duke game at timeouts, and now as I sit here typing, I am watching the Sixers face the Rockets.  All of it has been good television, but I decided the first thing I would write about would be the big game at the Spectrum.  Especially, since the Spectrum is a place I, like many Philadelphians, hold near and dear to my heart.

Villanova came into this game 15-4 overall, and 3-3 in the Big East.  They desperately needed a signature win.  It’s not like the Wildcats were in danger of not making the NCAA Tournament, with all 4 losses being tough battles against teams currently ranked in the top 12 in the country.  Still, a team can’t go through an entire season losing every game against top opponents, no matter how tough their conference is.  ‘Nova has had some tough losses, with the toughest to swallow coming in a 1 point loss to Louisville.  Well, tonight they were due.  The Wildcats faced a Pitt team with only one blemish on their record.  Coming out with a victory against Pittsburgh is never easy to do.  They are one of those teams that, even when you beat them, you come out of the game feeling like you lost. 

The Spectrum was electric all night, as everyone in the building knew they were witnessing the final college basketball game in a place that has hosted so many memorable sporting events over the years.  Even though Pitt jumped out to an early lead, they never stood a chance.  Not on this night.  This was the night where the team from the Main Line would close the final chapter on the college basketball history of the Spectrum with a victory.  Villanova played suffocating defense all night, holding the Panthers just 3 for 16 from beyond the arc, and forcing 17 turnovers.  I thought the defensive game plan by Jay Wright was phenomenal.  Villanova was trapping all over the floor as well as sending a lot of aggressive double teams at Sam Young.  It also didn’t hurt that DeJuan Blair couldn’t keep himself on the floor because of dumb fouls on his part.  On the offensive end, it is virtually impossible to have a smooth game against Pitt.  But, what Villanova did was hit big shots when they needed them, especially from three point land.  The Wildcats made 6 of the 15 three pointers they attempted, but the biggest came from Scottie Reynolds.  Reynolds drained one from about 27 feet with 5:28 left in the ballgame to put ‘Nova up by seven and they never looked back.  The crowd went crazy, cue the Rocky music, and that was the end for Pitt.  It was fitting that on this night there were some huge contributions by the Philly kids on both sides.  Reggie Redding led the Wildcats with 18 points and seven rebounds, and Shane Clark, even though he finished with 0 points, came up with 7 rebounds, including 4 huge ones on the offensive glass.  Philly product Brad Wanaker had a great game for the Panthers.

You can bet that those kids from Philadelphia knew the significance of playing in this game.  For the Wildcats that may not understand the history of the Spectrum, Jay Wright will make sure they are aware.  As the final seconds ticked down Wright looked up at a scoreboard that read Villanova 67- Pitt 57, and you could see what this game meant to him.  So, there will be no more college basketball played inside the old Spectrum, and soon it will not exist at all, but this game was a great way to close the book on the storied building.