Heard in the Cheap Seats

My brother and I often disagree when it comes to assessing trades, free agent signings and the changes of our great city’s professional sports franchises.  If you witnessed our virtual brawl over the Brian Dawkins departure you know exactly what I am talking about.  

The Philadelphia Phillies trade for Cliff Lee was no different.  Anthony and I come at this deal from different sides of the coin.  We figured since we argue over email we may as well post that for all to see.  We will continue to do these segments from time to time as we inevitably disagree on the topic of the day.

The following is our actual email exchange on the topic.  Weigh in and tell us what you think.  Are we both wrong?  Was this the wrong move or did the Phillies shrewdly pick up the right pitcher?

From: Anthony
Sent: Thursday, July 30, 2009 8:37 PM
To: Chris Iafolla
Subject: Re: Point, CounterPoint

Before I begin my points, I want to be clear to you, Chris, and to everyone else out there that I am not saying that the Philles made a “bad” trade!  So where should I begin my ass kicking in this debate?  I I believe the Phillies settled for the lesser of 2 pitchers in this trade.  They had the pieces to acquire Halladay, but were too stubborn to let go of certain players.  For a team that has won 2 World Series in over 100 years, I think we should all realize, this type of era doesn”t come around often.  I am going to withhold the rest of my ammo until you come back with your predictable response!

From: Chris Iafolla
Sent: Thursday, July 31, 2009 8:42 AM
To: Anthony
Subject: Re: Point, CounterPoint

I like you how blunt any possible debate by saying it is not a “bad trade” just that they settled for the lesser of two players.  I don’t disagree that Roy Halladay is a better pitcher—I said as much when I posted about the Cliff Lee trade on Wednesday.  But that is not the issue at hand here.  The question for me is not who the better player is, but what was the better trade?  You say that the Phillies “settled” for the lesser player but I don’t think that is the case at all.  They wanted desperately to land Halladay and offered a very attractive package to get a deal done.  But to give up your entire stable of blue-chip prospects for one player is foolhardy.  They didn’t settle for the lesser player, they made a calculated decision to get a top-of-the-rotation starter without decimating their farm system.  

From: Anthony
Sent: Friday, July 31, 2009 9:44 AM
To: Chris Iafolla
Subject: Re: Point, CounterPoint

Don”t try and completely twist my words buddy.  Let me put it this way so there is no confusion: I don;t think they made the better trade.  The whole argument that I have heard from you and everyone else is that the reason the trade was so good has to do with the players they did and also didn”t give up.  Yes, they added a starter, and yes he won the cy young award last year.  But, since both trades were available, I don”t think they made the better trade here.  There are 2 reasons to have a good farm system.  One is to have replacements over the years and 2 is to be able to make trades for players like Roy Halladay.  Everyone uses cliche phrases like “mortgage the future” because they heard Buster Olney say it on Baseball Tonight. How can something be deemed a “better” trade when the only true evidence we have is between Halladay and Lee, and Halladay wins that battle in a landslide ( some people argue this, but I will get to that later). You say it is foolhardy to make that trade?  I say it’’s foolhardy to expect Halladay without giving up a top pitching prospect!  Prospects have no guarantee whatsoever, not even close to one, which is why I wanted to make the Halladay trade in the first place.  The fact that they made a trade and gave up prospects shows they knew they had a desperate need.  I have heard a car analogy used by a lot of people.  Well, let me say this to you and everyone:  If you have the ability to comfortably afford both, there is a difference between a Bentley and a Cadillac, so why settle for the Cadillac?  I have many more bullets but I want to see what other point you have other than they didn”t trade Drabek, Brown, or Happ.

From: Chris Iafolla
Sent: Friday, July 31, 2009 12:08 p.m.
To: Anthony
Subject: Re: Point, CounterPoint

You cheated, we agreed to a 150 word count on responses and you doubled it.  Does your argument need that much explaining that you can’t squeeze it into 150 words?  To level the playing field, I will stick to this new standard you have created.  

Yes, the argument is that they didn’t have to include players like Drabek, Taylor, Brown or Happ.  But it is not only about the type of players those prospects might become, but also about the cost control they provide.  Even the Phillies ownership was not comfortable with the Halladay trade—and it wasn’t because of talent.  The holes trading those prospects away creates would necessitate the signing of major-league free agents to fill out a roster.  They simply would not have the money to do that.  So yes, letting those prospects walk out the door is a risk in terms of talent, but also in terms of budget.  You can’t dismiss that risk.

Second, you mentioned that the Phillies have won two World Series titles in the last 100 years, so why not go whole hog now to win as many as possible while they have a young, strong nucleus.  But let me ask you this: how did they win last year’s World Series title?  Was it with a nucleus of players they acquired from outside the organization or by building from inside the organization?  I think the answer is obvious.  You win by drafting well and cultivating young talent. 

Finally, I think evaluating the trade on just the ability of Halladay and Lee (as you suggest) is oversimplifying the trade.  It’s not that simple. You made a car analogy that compared a Bentley to a Cadillac.  First of all, the disparity between Halladay and Lee is not that great.  Second of all, you conveniently left off price.  In my mind, a more apt analogy would be this.  Do you want to pay $500,000 for a Bentley or $50,000 for a Cadillac and we will throw a Honda Accord in on the side (Ben Francisco).  I will take the two cars (both of which serve a valuable purpose) at a fraction of the cost.

From: Anthony
Sent: Friday, July 31, 2009 12:51 PM
To: Chris Iafolla
Subject: Re: Point, CounterPoint

Yes, I cheated and then you went way overboard!  I don”t know where to begin.  Your rebuttal to my car analogy makes no sense.  My point was that they went for the cheaper deal and the lesser “car”, so thank you for making my point for me.  No, the two don”t cost the same, nor should they!  I agree that you build with the farm system, but that team was made up of a mixture, as all good teams are. Take a look at the rosters for the World Series Champs over the last 20 years. 

Also, What holes would be created?!  The players aren”t even on the damn roster. If you have a chance to win now you do it!  So, you have to give up a few prospects, if you believe in your scouting I would say you should be able to replenish.  When I was living in Cali, I witnessed the Angels develop the best farm system in baseball.  Still haven”t won since ”02, and because those prospects didn”t pan out the way they were supposed to, they have been bringing in guys like Abreu, Hunter, and Teixiera.  The team that is assembled will mostly be together for another 2 seasons, this chance doesn”t come around very often as Philly fans should know.  If you are OK with an Eagles Philosophy then more power to you.  The Phillies will be “competitive” by not going for the big deal.  To build a championship team, there has to be risk involved.  I am sick of people talking about the budget.  This is the World Champion Phillies who are filling the Bank to the tune of 101%, and if they continue to win, they will have plenty of money.  We aren”t living in Kansas City.

I guess I will just end with this: I think the Phils are lucky they can spin this by saying Lee won the Cy Young award last season.  If that weren”t the case I would be even more disappointed, because, like I said, they played it safe, and for no other reason than lack of guts and a plain stubbornness.  Kinda like the years when Reid insisted the Birds didn”t need a wide receiver.  I argue that there is a much greater disparity between Halladay and Lee.  I won”t go through every stat, I will allow people to look it up themselves.  But, here are a few reasons I feel they made the wrong trade: The Phils are very left handed heavy in the roatation.  Hopefully Pedro come in and helps with that.  That I can live with though.  Before last season, Lee had one other very good year…That’’s it!  Halladay has done it his whole career.  Lee surrenders more hits than innings pitched, Halladay does not.  Lee is a fly ball pitcher, and I don;t like that in Philly, and he has benefited from one of the most pitcher friendly parks in baseball.  Halladay induces more grounders than flyballs, which is better suited for the Bank.  Lee has a 30 point higher batting average against, and the list goes on and on.  All of this came with Halladay pitching in the best division in baseball.  So, please don”t use an award as grounds to say the race is close between these two.  Barry Zito won the Cy Young too!  You know what other award Lee won last season?  The Comeback Player of the Year.  Why?  Because he was awful in 2007 and was booed off the field and sent to the minor leagues.  You won”t see that on Roy Halladay’’s resume.

The bottom line, to me, is that the Phillies made the best trade they were “willing” to make, and I don”t agree with the reasoning.  The bar has been set at a World Championship, so if they don”t win and Lee isn”t dominant, then I will say they made the wrong trade.  There is no guarantees in baseball, but if they don”t win, we won”t get to see if Halladay would have made the difference.  If they do win it all and Lee is a catalyst, I will admit I was wrong.  Hey, at least there are those prospects to look forward to in 2012, when the window may no longer be there!  I feel so grateful for that.  Now, I”m done.  It was fun kicking your ass little brother.  That’’s how you debate!!!!

From: Chris Iafolla
Sent: Friday, July 31, 2009 1:41 PM
To: Anthony
Subject: Re: Point, CounterPoint

 Um, use your wordcount function; if you take out the sentence where I pointed out you cheated, my section is shorter than yours. 

But I digress.  I did take a look at the roster of the last 20 years worth of championship teams and in every single instance they are built almost entirely from the farm system with a player or two as a key contributor from outside the organization.  That’s why a four for one deal of ALL (literally all) of your most coveted prospects does not make sense.  Don’t you think it is telling that no team was willing to come even remotely close to the price the Blue Jays asked?  The Phillies were not the only team that balked at the price—every team has so far.  And if a deal does get done for the Blue Jays in the next two hours you can bet it won’t be anywhere near what they requested of the Phillies.  The worst thing any GM can do is bid against themselves and that is exactly would Ruben Amaro Jr. would have been doing if he made that deal.  

The car analogy makes complete sense.  Your argument said if you have a Bentley and a Cadillac in front of you—which one would you choose assuming you can comfortably afford it?  The problem is; they can’t.  Obviously, if somebody said to me you can have either of these cars I would take the Bentley.  Until they asked for money I can’t afford to pay.  So yes, they did take the lesser car but at a more palpable price.  It was the right deal.

As for your questions on what holes would be created—the ones that those players will presumably fill on the roster.  Two SPs and two OFs do not come cheap.  That was directly from Phillies ownership that they did not feel they could afford to fill a roster if they had to look outside the organization for help.  No, they are not the Royals but they do have a budget.  You can’t just dismiss that aspect of baseball as much as we would all like to do that.  It is a business and if they can’t afford to pay their players they will suffer in the long run.  That’s a fact.

Of course Halladay is the better pitcher, but the discrepancy is not as large as the picture you paint.  You cherry picked some nice stats that support your argument so I will do the same that close the gap.  First of all, Lee was a better pitcher than Hallday last season, which you can’t dispute.  This season, since April 16^th after his rough start he has a 2.66 ERA.  He leads the major leagues in quality starts and is on pace to pitch 240 innings this season.  Cliff Lee is no slouch and is immediately the best pitcher on the Phillies roster.  

The bottom line is this: did the Phillies make a trade that greatly improves their roster? Yes.  If you can do that AND not give up a bevy of coveted prospects then why not make the deal?

The speculation can now end: according to Ken Rosenthal, the Philadelphia Phillies have struck a deal with the Cleveland Indians that sends last year’s Cy Young Award winner, Cliff Lee, to Philadelphia in exchange for Jason Knapp, Carlos Carasco, Jason Donald and Lou Marson.  The Phillies also land OF Ben Francisco as part of the deal to serve as their much-needed right handed bat off the bench.

For weeks, the city of Philadelphia has been fixated on the prospect of adding Roy Halladay to the rotation.  As talks with the Blue Jays progressed, and eventually broke down, it was apparent the price would be too steep.  The Blue Jays essentially asked for every blue-chip prospect the Phillies had in their system.  Needless to say, the front-office brass in Philly balked at that sum.

When that notion became clear, the Phillies moved swiftly and set their sights on Cliff Lee.  Lee is the reigning American League Cy Young winner and gives the Phillies a legitimate top-of-the rotation ace to carry into the postseason.

Don’t be fooled by Lee’s mediocre 7-9 record.  He is having a solid season with a 3.14 ERA in the daunting American League.  His record is a product of playing on a bad team, not an indicator of his performance.  While Halladay is the better pitcher of the two, Lee holds a distinct advantage in one key area—cost.  Lee’s contract is prorated at $6million for 2009 with a $9 millionon club option for 2010.  That is a much more palpable number than the money it would have required to employ Mr. Halladay.  

The addition of Lee gives the Phillies a left-heavy rotation with Hamels, Moyer, Happ and Lee.  Assuming the Phillies add Pedro to the mix and the effectiveness of Blanton in recent weeks, it seems either Moyer or Happ is heading to the bullpen.  Of course, Happ has been the better pitcher this season but Charlie Manuel is always loyal to his players to a fault.  Will that loyalty keep Moyer in the rotation?

The impact on the rotation aside, as a Phillies fan, I think you have to be satisfied with this deal.  They managed to land an ace while still keeping every blue-chip prospect mentioned in the proposed Halladay deals.  By completing this deal, the Phillies improved their chances of competing for a World Series this year and in 2010 without compromising the future of this club.

The Philadelphia Phillies will look to continue their recent 8-game winning streak in a three-game series against the Chicago Cubs.  The Cub themselves come in winners of four straight, though all four of those games came against the lowly Nationals.

It is not hard to see why Philadelphia is winning of late.  The Phillies recent surge has come on the back of solid starting pitching and the resurgence of Jimmy Rollins.  Rollins is hitting .397 (23 for 58) with eight doubles, a homer, eight RBI, five stolen bases and 10 walks over his last 14 games.  To me, the most impressive number in that bunch is the 10 walks.  Rollins has seemingly discovered a more patient approach at the plate that allows the run producers behind him to do their jobs.  When Rollins gets on base, this team is tough to beat.

But despite the solid string of play I suspect this will be a tough series.  In looking at the pitching matchups, the Phillies have the bad luck of facing all of the Cubs top three starters.   Tonight, Ted Lilly will face Rodrigo Lopez.  Each starter is coming off an injury, albeit, Lopez’s was of the more serious variety.  Tomorrow, Joe Blanton will square off against Rich Harden and Jamie Moyer will have Carlos Zambrano to deal with in the finale.  In each matchup, the Cubs hold the upper hand on paper.  And while winning four games against Washington is nothing to brag about, it sometimes can serve as a springboard to more consistent play that the Cubs are looking for.

Make no mistake: this is a talented Cubs team that just may be finding its groove.  If the Phillies take this series lately, they could come out on the losing end.

The Philadelphia Phillies ignored my memo yesterday and chose not to heed my advice.  The Phillies have signed three-time Cy Young award winner Pedro Martinez to a 1-year, $1 million contract that could escalate to $1.8 million with incentives. 

In perhaps a harbinger of things to come, the Phillies promptly placed Pedro on the 15-day DL with a mild shoulder strain.  The move to the DL is probably less about an actual injury than it is getting him some work before he joins the big-league club. 

The Phillies are hoping that Pedro is one piece of the puzzle when it comes to curing their starting pitching woes.  The 37-year old pitcher has struggled to regain any semblance of his heyday after a couple of seasons riddled with injuries and poor performance.

If Pedro can give the Phillies six innings every fifth night than this move will be deemed a success.  I’m just not sure he is capable of that at this stage in his career.  I hope I am wrong. 

Even before Brett Myers went down with what looks to be a season-ending injury it was apparent the Phillies would need to find help for the starting rotation.  And while front-end help is certainly the biggest priority (READ: Roy Halladay), depth is a need as well.  The Philadelphia Phillies must find a capable starter to hold down the fifth spot of the rotation.

Every starter they have tried in that spot has either failed or fallen victim to the injury bug.  In order to make a run to the playoffs, the Phillies will need to shore up the rotation from top to bottom.  Clearly, this is the driving force behind the Phillies kicking the tires of what remains of Pedro Martinez.  But Pedro is not a part of the solution for the Phillies starting rotation.  Repeat after me Philadelphia: “say no to Pedro.”

The common argument to justify signing the once-great veteran is that it’s a classic low-risk high-reward proposition.  I think that is faulty logic.  On the contrary; there is plenty of risk and the reward is not that high.  How high can the reward possibly be?  At his best, Pedro is a guy that can give you five solid innings—maybe six on an efficient night.  That’s it.  That is his upside.

Here is the risk: even if he reaches that upside, he is still placing undue strain on your bullpen every fifth night.  This is a bullpen that has pitched too many innings through the first half of the year and is in desperate need of some help from the starting rotation.  So even at his best, Pedro still taxes the bullpen.  In his poorest outings, Pedro will put the team in a precarious position by both coughing over the lead and taxing the bullpen.  So I don’t buy the low risk argument.  The risk is immediate damage in the standings and collateral damage as the season progresses and Pedro continues to stretch the resources of the bullpen thin. 

There is no disputing that the Phillies need depth across the rotation.  But to think Martinez adds to that depth is suspect.  In his last season, Pedro 5-6 record and a 5.61 ERA—not the type of numbers the Phillies need.  This is not the 2000 version of Pedro Martinez.  It is past his prime version that won’t help the Phillies repeat as World Champs.  So one more time with me Philadelphia: “say not to Pedro.”

While most old adages are overused, there is one that applies to the baseball season—“it is a marathon, not a sprint.”  But now that we are halfway home, it s time to take stock of what has transpired thus far and what the rest of the season may bring.

Here is what we know: the Philadelphia Phillies sit at 44-38 and are two games clear of the Florida Marlins in the NL East.  The offseason acquisition of Raul Ibanez has proved to be a shrewd move by rookie GM Reuben Amaro Jr.  His early season surge has catapaulted the Phillies to its status as an offensive juggernaut.  Think that “juggernaut” is too strong of a term for this team given its recent struggles and the much-maligned Jimmy Rollins?  It isn’t.  This team is on pace to score 59 more runs and hit  28 more dingers than last year’s group and nobody would question the offensive prowess of the World Champs.  Imagine how lethal this offense will be once Rollins gets rolling.    The putrid performance of Rollins has been offset by strong seasons from Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Ibanez, Jasyon Werth, Shane Victorino and a bouneback season from Pedro Feliz.

With so much going right at the plate and a two-game lead in the NL East, it is reasonable for Phillies fans to feel good about their chances of getting into the postseason for a third straight time.  But that would be a false sense of security.

The reality is that this team is venturing into dangerous territory.  Cole Hamels has not pitched like the ace they need him to be, Jamie Moyer is finally starting to show his age, Brad Lidge has fallen back to earth and Brett Myers is likely out for the year. What that leaves is a mediocre starting rotation and an overtaxed bullpen.   I don’t care what kind of thunder you have in the middle of your lineup, if you can’t pitch, you can’t win. 

So where does that leaves this Phillies team as the second-half of the year gets underway?

In my opinion, the Phillies are teetering on the edge of trouble.   For starters, Raul Ibanez cannot be expected top continue his early season surge.  Without his early season production, the Phillies would have been in a perilous position.  With a drop off inevitable, Jimmy Rollins MUST start playing better baseball.  He has started to show signs lately that he is turning the corner but we need to see this on a prolonged basis before his  slump can be put in the rearview mirror.  But the offense is not the major concern. 

If the Phillies do not land a frontline starting pitcher, they will not repeat as World Series champs.  In fact, if they don’t get a starting pitcher, I would venture to say they won’t get out of the wild card round of the playoffs and will struggle to win their division.

The struggles of the starting rotation have put undue stress on the bullpen.  As the innings continue to pile for this bullpen unit, their effectiveness will decline.  Starting pitching is a definitive need for this team and if the Phils do not land one they will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs let alone defend their crown.

Yesterday’s development that Roy Halladay is on the market is welcome news for this team.  He is exactly the type of pitcher the Phillies need to land.  There are few pitchers in the league that can eat innings like Halladay.  With him at the top of the rotation, the bullpen can take the first seven innings off on nights that he starts.   But he won’t come cheap.  Amaro needs to find a way to get this deal done.  This is a team that is built to win and holding on to top prospects for the future when a player the caliber of Halladay is available is pure foolishness. 

The first half of the season provided a barometer of where the Phillies stand.  In first place, it is certainly not time to panic.  But a healthy dose of reality says that this team is not nearly as good as last year’s unit.  First place should not serve as comfort to a team with higher aspirations than a division crown.

The Phillies need more problems as much as I need to smack my head repeatedly into a brick wall (although there are some that might argue this is a good idea!).  The fact that the Phillies have serious starting pitching issues is old news at this point, but you can now officially add Cole Hamels to the list of pitching concerns.  Even with the injuries to Brett Myers and Antonio “One Pitch” Bastardo and the inconsistencies of Blanton, Myers, and Happ, Cole Hamels was supposed to be the sure thing.  He was supposed to be the “ace”, the “stopper”, the guy who could make the pitching staff look a lot better because of his dominance.  It hasn’t quite gone according to plan.

Instead, Hamels is 4-5 with a 4.98 ERA.  That looks more like what we would expect from J.A. Happ, not Cole Hamels.  Hamels has not been all bad, this season.  He has had quite a few great outings, but not nearly enough.  On a team with below average starting pitching, those cannot be the numbers of the ace.  Hamels has failed to pitch 6 innings in 6 out of his 15 starts this season.  We know that the bullpen is being taxed due to the poor starting pitching.  When Hamels is on the mound, the bullpen is supposed to get a bit of a break.  I am not saying that we should expect the  nearly perfect Hamels of the 2008 postseason, but we should expect more than what has been shown so far.  Look around the league at the aces of staffs on winning teams; you won’t find one with a 4.98 ERA.  This is not a classic Philly overreaction.  I would love someone to make a good argument on the fact that the ace of the pitching staff has a losing record and a 4.98 ERA with the All Star break fast approaching is no ig deal.  If you can do that, I””d love to hear it.

Like I said, it hasn’t been all bad.  But, statistically speaking, there are a few glaring points of concern.  As far as strikeouts, walks, pitches per inning, and quite a few other stats, Hamels is faring right around normal.  But, he has given up 107 hits in 85 innings.  In his 3 previous seasons, Hamels surrendered well less than one hit per inning.  His ERA in his other 3 seasons was 4.08, 3.39, 3.09 respectively, compared to 4.98 this season.  His batting average against were .237, .237, and .227.  This season, opponents are hitting at a .312 clip against Hamels.  It is pretty clear that Hamels is just way more hittable than he has ever been.

The question that no one knows the answer to is, why?  How can a 25 year old ace and Worl Series MVP suddenly look so average?  Well, I don’t think anyone knows for sure.  There have been whispers that his arm is a bit tired due to the 260+ innings Hamels pitche last year.  That was by far a career high.  Hamels has insisted that he feels fine, but there are times, like last night, where his fastball velocity drops drastically after a few innings.  Obviously, a tired arm would cause the location of his pitches to be off, which would account for his struggles.  But, why has he looked so good in other starts?  Maybe there are games where his arm feels strong, and times where it doesn’t.  No pitcher feels 100% all the time, but a .312 average against is much more than that.

The only other explanation I can think of is that teams have a very clear scouting report on Hamels, and he has become predictable.  Hamels’ changeup is his out pitch, but it seems like opposing hitters know when it is coming.  Maybe he is tipping his pitches, or maybe he has just become too predictable and teams have him scouted to perfection.  Either way, adjustments need to be made.

No matter what the issue is, one thing is very certain:  In order for the Phillies to have another great run, they need Cole Hamels the ace, not Cole Hamels the mediocre pitcher.

The benching is over…for now.  Charlie Manuel announced that Jimmy Rollins will be back in the starting lineup tonight, after Manuel sat Rollins down for a four game benching/mental breather.  Will the break give Rollins a much needed boost?  That remains to be seen.  Manuel certainly feels like it was the right thing to do, and I agree with his decision.  In reality, it was the only decision to make.  It was either that, or continue to watch Rollins struggle and press too hard to make things happen.  He needed to just take a little break and relax.  Manuel has said that the two have been talking throughout the benching, and if that’s the case then my guess is Manuel told Rollins all along, “You’re my guy.”  Charlie Manuel knows his players better than any of us, and he also knows that the Phillies are a better team when Rollins is going well.  There is no other option.  Is anybody excited about the prospect of Eric Bruntlett playing everyday?  I didn’t think so.  I have been as disappointed as anyone else with Rollins so far this season, but I think everyone needs to temper their frustrations a little bit.

We all know the numbers, but in case you don’t have them memorized, here they are:

.211 AVG, 41 R, 63 H, 15 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 16 BB, 32 K, 10 SB, .254 OBP

Obviously, not pretty.  But, my brother recently made a very good point in that there are many fans that view Rollins as the player he was during his amazing 2007 MVP season.  Unfortunately, that season was, by far, his best statistical season in almost every category.  His other 7 full seasons in the big leagues are a much better barometer of what we should expect from Jimmy Rollins.  So, I took my brother’s point a little further because I love beating things into the ground.

As bad as Rollins’ season has been so far, here is what his stats project out to for 162 games:

95 R, 145 H, 35 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 62 RBI, 23 SB, 37 BB, 74 K

Now, those numbers would assume that he would hit .211 and have an OBP of .254 at the end of the season.  If we eliminate Rollins’ 2007 numbers from the equation and use his other 7 full seasons, his averages look like this:

.274 AVG, 100 R, 176H, 38 2B, 10 3B, 14 HR, 64 RBI, 37 SB, 54 BB, 86 K, .327 OBP

As you can see, besides average, on base percentage, and hits, Rollins is on pace to have his normal year.  Those categories really go hand in hand, so it’s pretty simple.  Look at it from this way: There are 89 more games in the season.  Rollins needs to average one more hit every 3 games to be right where he normally ends up every season.  His average, his OBP, and hits would be right where they have always been.  I’ll use the immortal words of “Crash” (Kevin Costner) to “Nuke” (Tim Robbins) to illustrate my point:

“Know what the difference between hitting .250 and hitting .300?  It’s 25 hits.  25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay?  There’s 6 months in a season, that’s about 25 weeks.  That means if you get one extra flare a week-just one-a gork, you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes…you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week…and you’re in Yankee Stadium.”

For those of you who don’t like great movies, that quote is from “Bull Durham”.  It shouldn’t be too hard for Rollins to average one more hit a week than he has been.  If he does that, his numbers will be just about even with 7 of his 8 other big league seasons.

I think Rollins is too good to hit .211 for the season.  He has struggled, no doubt, but one good month and his numbers will be decent.  Fans need to settle down just a bit.  I am always amused and confused in cases like this when I hear people say they are “sick” of Rollins or that the Phillies should “get rid of him”.  That just doesn’t make sense.  My question is always: And then what?  Who is the shortstop?  When a player like Rollins is struggling, you can’t just replace him.  There are no options on the team, and that is not the type of trade the Phillies need to be making.  Not that any team would give up a great shortstop anyway.  Baseball sometimes mirrors the real world, and in the real world no one is going to trade you their brand new fully loaded 5-series for your 2001 Toyota Camry with 100,000 miles and in need of a new transmission.  Think before you make ridiculous statements, please. 

So, tonight Rollins will be back, and in my opinion, this can only be a good thing for the Phillies.  It has been easy to point the finger at Rollins lately, but he isn’t the only Phillie who has been having terrible at bats during the recent struggles.  If Rollins is even marginally better than he has been, the Phillies improve.  How much worse can he really get?  He will be back in his usual leadoff spot, which I also agree with.  The Phillies aren’t really comprised of a bunch of prototypical leadoff men, including Rollins.  Victorino is about the same historically as Rollins when it comes to statistics.  I’d rather see Rollins getting on base in front of the big RBI men rather than in front of Carlos Ruiz.  Rollins has had his mental break, so we will see what his approach and focus is starting tonight.  Either way, I am sure he will continue to be the topic of a lot of discussion in the Illadelph.

Today is the final day of an ill-fated month highlighted by excruciating losses, struggling superstars and a bloated disabled list.  It is the final day of a month wrought with squandered opportunities and baffling inconsistency.  Tonight’s game against the Atlanta Braves marks the end of June—and maybe that’s a good thing.

Maybe 6/30 will be a cathartic day for this Phillies team that washes away the wrongs of the month and helps to build some much-needed momentum.

Optimism allows us to find some reason for hope when logic tells us otherwise.   It’s no secret that the Phillies have been playing some terrible baseball over the last couple of weeks.  During the most recent 10-game stretch, the team has stumbled to a 3-7 record.  All the while, the disabled list continues to grow at an astonishing rate—with Antonio Bastardo becoming the latest casualty.  Things have been so bad that Jimmy Rollins has been asked to take a seat on the bench for the last four games.

Using logic in place of hope, Phillies fans have plenty of reasons to wonder when this month-long swoon will come to an end.  There is no time like the present.  The Phillies are about to embark on a crucial 6-game stretch against two NL-East foes starting with a 3-game tilt with the Atlanta Braves.  Following that series, it is on to New York for three with the Mets.  The Phillies, at the very least, need to split these games and ideally would take 4 out of 6.  This is an opportunity to put some space between the Mets and Phillies and also squash any notion the Braves might have of competing in this division.

A lot has gone wrong for the Phillies in the month of June.  Tonight is an opportunity to rid themselves of that bad karma and move into July on a positive note. 

The trials and tribulations of Jimmy Rollins this season have been well documented.  Phillies fans have been rightfully outraged at his performance to date and he has been the object of many a Citizen’s Bank boo. 

Can you blame them?  This is a guy that is supposed to be the Phillies’ sparkplug yet he is hitting .217 with a .261 OBP.  And you know that old adage that “speed never goes in slumps?”  Well apparently that rule does not apply to Rollins as he has already been caught stealing five times this season compared to three all of last year.  Whatever measurement you use to judge Rollins’ performance, he has fallen woefully short of expectations.

But maybe we are placing unfair expectations on Rollins.  Maybe he is a very good major league shortstop.  Very good, but not elite.  I know that is close to blasphemy in Philadelphia, but indulge my theory for a moment.

Jimmy Rollins’ per 162 game average looks like this: .274 BA, .329 OBP, .436 SLG, .765 OPS, 16 HR, 70 RBI and 38 SB, 109 R. 

Those are the numbers of very good major league player but not the MVP-caliber player Philadelphia expects.

Compare those numbers with a player like Orlando Cabrera and they are not as far apart as one might think.  In most people’s minds, the delta between these two players is huge, but the numbers tell a different story.

Cabrera’s per 162 game average looks like this: .271 BA, .321 OBP, .395 SLG, .716 OPS, 11 HR, 70 RBI and 18 SB, 82 R.

Clearly, Jimmy Rollins is a better player, but is he really an elite, MVP-level player?

Let’s take another player who has had a long career as an above-average, but not elite, SS.  Edgar Renteria.

Renteria’s per 162 game average goes like this: .289 BA, .346 OBP, .402 SLG, .748 OPS, 11 HR, 71 RBI , 24 SB, 94 R. 

Again, Rollins has him beat, particularly in the power numbers but not by much.  And keep in mind, Rollins per 162 average include a year in which there was what now appears to be a statistical anomaly—30 HRs.  If you throw that year out as an outlier, his per 162 averages fall more in line with Renteria’s numbers.

Take a look: .274 BA, .331 OBP, .426SLG, .757 OPS, 13.5 HR, 64 RBI, 100 R, 35 SB 

Last year, the average major league shortstop (with over 350ABs) hit close to 14 HRs had 78 RBI and 87 R. 

Let’s get this straight: Jimmy Rollins is a very good baseball player.  He had a magical MVP season and was integral in helping the Phillies win the World Series.  There is no questioning that.  This is not an indictment of Rollins. 

In addition, the above stats do not take into account the number of runs he saves with his glove and the intangibles he brings as a clubhouse leader.  I get that.

But maybe as Phillies fans, we are clinging too tightly to that MVP season in hopes that is the real Jimmy Rollins.  Maybe our expectation is out of whack because the lingering memory of that year drives us to hope we will see it once again.  Orr, maybe we need to accept that he is just a very good baseball player but not elite.