Heard in the Cheap Seats

Have you heard, Brian Dawkins is no longer wearing Philadelphia Eagle green?  Instead, Dawkins chose the greener (7 million times over) pastures of Denver.  That leaves a gaping hole at safety for an Eagles defense that relied on Dawkins not only for his big-play ability, but also his leadership and on-field coaching.   

With training camp right around the corner, the speculation has started as to who will ultimately be asked to take on the unenviable task of filling the shoes of a legend.  Ultimately, the competition will come down to free-agent acquisition Sean Jones and second-year man Quintin Demps.

But for starters, let’s get one thing straight—neither of these players will replace Brian Dawkins.  Dawk was a hall-of-fame caliber player that captured the hearts of the entire city of Philadelphia.  To place the weight of those expectations on either Demps or Jones would be unfair and unreasonable.  What the Eagles need is a versatile safety that is capable in both pass coverage and run support and has the knack for the big play.

When evaluating Demps, many jump to his poor performance in the NFC Championship game last season as proof he is not ready.  He was the scapegoat on a trick play that resulted in a long touchdown pass and also committed an inexcusable roughing the passer penalty.  But I don’t necessarily subscribe to that theory.  While Demps could have made a better play on the ball on the trick play, he was the only Eagle even remotely in the play.  I have watched the video a number of times (embedded below) and have come to conclude that Demps did a decent job of staying home.  If you watch, he is running stride for stride with Fitzgerald and did not bite on the play fake.  His problem came when Warner under threw the ball forcing Fitzgerald to change directions.  Demps got turned around on the play and lost his footing.  The end result had Demps on his stomach watching Fitzgerald waltz into the end zone.  But Quintin Demps was the only player on the defense that stayed even remotely close to home.  And for those people that argue we will never know what the scheme called for on that play, I can assure you Jim Johnson did not isolate Demps in single coverage on Fitzgerald. 

I don’t analyze that play as a means to defend Quintin Demps.  He was beat on that play without a doubt.  The point is: let’s not use one play as a microcosm for his overall quality of play and as a means for deciding this position battle. 

Demps is a solid player with well above average speed and coverage skills.  At 5’11” and 206 pounds, he is on the smaller side for the position but is a willing tackler.  Sean Jones of course holds a huge size advantage at 6’1” and 220 pounds.  He also has more experience, starting three years with the Cleveland Browns and has shown he has the ability to intercept passes.  The knock on Jones though is as a pass defender.  While he will make the occasional big play, he is also susceptible to getting beat—particularly on deep routes.  

It will be one of many interesting training camp battles.  Who is your money on?

Training camp is still a few weeks away but that doesn’t stop the bookies in Vegas from projecting the win totals of the upcoming NFL season.  This year, Vegas has the Philadelphia Eagles at 9.5 wins—behind only the Patriots, Steelers, Colts and Giants and tied with the Chargers. 

A couple of interesting takeways from the early projections:

1.)   That’s right, the Giants, a team the Eagles beat twice last season, are ranked higher than the Eagles despite losing Plaxico Burress.  Apparently, the experts in Vegas know something that we don’t and think highly of the Giants offseason moves—or lack thereof.

2.) Overall, Vegas believes that the NFC East will be a dogfight this year.  After the Giants at 10 wins and the Eagles at 9.5, the Cowboys are sitting at 9 and the Redskins at 8 wins.  If those projections turn out to be accurate then the division would end up without sporting a losing record.  

3.) If these projections turn out to be accurate, we are in for quite a bit of mediocrity next year.  After the group at the top, there is a slew of teams bunched in the 7 and 8 win range and few more below that threshold.  Some people call it parity, I call it mediocrity.

So it may only be July, but it is never too early to place your bets.  What do you think: over or under for the Eagels on 9.5 wins?

The Philadelphia Phillies ignored my memo yesterday and chose not to heed my advice.  The Phillies have signed three-time Cy Young award winner Pedro Martinez to a 1-year, $1 million contract that could escalate to $1.8 million with incentives. 

In perhaps a harbinger of things to come, the Phillies promptly placed Pedro on the 15-day DL with a mild shoulder strain.  The move to the DL is probably less about an actual injury than it is getting him some work before he joins the big-league club. 

The Phillies are hoping that Pedro is one piece of the puzzle when it comes to curing their starting pitching woes.  The 37-year old pitcher has struggled to regain any semblance of his heyday after a couple of seasons riddled with injuries and poor performance.

If Pedro can give the Phillies six innings every fifth night than this move will be deemed a success.  I’m just not sure he is capable of that at this stage in his career.  I hope I am wrong. 

Even before Brett Myers went down with what looks to be a season-ending injury it was apparent the Phillies would need to find help for the starting rotation.  And while front-end help is certainly the biggest priority (READ: Roy Halladay), depth is a need as well.  The Philadelphia Phillies must find a capable starter to hold down the fifth spot of the rotation.

Every starter they have tried in that spot has either failed or fallen victim to the injury bug.  In order to make a run to the playoffs, the Phillies will need to shore up the rotation from top to bottom.  Clearly, this is the driving force behind the Phillies kicking the tires of what remains of Pedro Martinez.  But Pedro is not a part of the solution for the Phillies starting rotation.  Repeat after me Philadelphia: “say no to Pedro.”

The common argument to justify signing the once-great veteran is that it’s a classic low-risk high-reward proposition.  I think that is faulty logic.  On the contrary; there is plenty of risk and the reward is not that high.  How high can the reward possibly be?  At his best, Pedro is a guy that can give you five solid innings—maybe six on an efficient night.  That’s it.  That is his upside.

Here is the risk: even if he reaches that upside, he is still placing undue strain on your bullpen every fifth night.  This is a bullpen that has pitched too many innings through the first half of the year and is in desperate need of some help from the starting rotation.  So even at his best, Pedro still taxes the bullpen.  In his poorest outings, Pedro will put the team in a precarious position by both coughing over the lead and taxing the bullpen.  So I don’t buy the low risk argument.  The risk is immediate damage in the standings and collateral damage as the season progresses and Pedro continues to stretch the resources of the bullpen thin. 

There is no disputing that the Phillies need depth across the rotation.  But to think Martinez adds to that depth is suspect.  In his last season, Pedro 5-6 record and a 5.61 ERA—not the type of numbers the Phillies need.  This is not the 2000 version of Pedro Martinez.  It is past his prime version that won’t help the Phillies repeat as World Champs.  So one more time with me Philadelphia: “say not to Pedro.”

While most old adages are overused, there is one that applies to the baseball season—“it is a marathon, not a sprint.”  But now that we are halfway home, it s time to take stock of what has transpired thus far and what the rest of the season may bring.

Here is what we know: the Philadelphia Phillies sit at 44-38 and are two games clear of the Florida Marlins in the NL East.  The offseason acquisition of Raul Ibanez has proved to be a shrewd move by rookie GM Reuben Amaro Jr.  His early season surge has catapaulted the Phillies to its status as an offensive juggernaut.  Think that “juggernaut” is too strong of a term for this team given its recent struggles and the much-maligned Jimmy Rollins?  It isn’t.  This team is on pace to score 59 more runs and hit  28 more dingers than last year’s group and nobody would question the offensive prowess of the World Champs.  Imagine how lethal this offense will be once Rollins gets rolling.    The putrid performance of Rollins has been offset by strong seasons from Chase Utley, Ryan Howard, Ibanez, Jasyon Werth, Shane Victorino and a bouneback season from Pedro Feliz.

With so much going right at the plate and a two-game lead in the NL East, it is reasonable for Phillies fans to feel good about their chances of getting into the postseason for a third straight time.  But that would be a false sense of security.

The reality is that this team is venturing into dangerous territory.  Cole Hamels has not pitched like the ace they need him to be, Jamie Moyer is finally starting to show his age, Brad Lidge has fallen back to earth and Brett Myers is likely out for the year. What that leaves is a mediocre starting rotation and an overtaxed bullpen.   I don’t care what kind of thunder you have in the middle of your lineup, if you can’t pitch, you can’t win. 

So where does that leaves this Phillies team as the second-half of the year gets underway?

In my opinion, the Phillies are teetering on the edge of trouble.   For starters, Raul Ibanez cannot be expected top continue his early season surge.  Without his early season production, the Phillies would have been in a perilous position.  With a drop off inevitable, Jimmy Rollins MUST start playing better baseball.  He has started to show signs lately that he is turning the corner but we need to see this on a prolonged basis before his  slump can be put in the rearview mirror.  But the offense is not the major concern. 

If the Phillies do not land a frontline starting pitcher, they will not repeat as World Series champs.  In fact, if they don’t get a starting pitcher, I would venture to say they won’t get out of the wild card round of the playoffs and will struggle to win their division.

The struggles of the starting rotation have put undue stress on the bullpen.  As the innings continue to pile for this bullpen unit, their effectiveness will decline.  Starting pitching is a definitive need for this team and if the Phils do not land one they will be hard-pressed to make the playoffs let alone defend their crown.

Yesterday’s development that Roy Halladay is on the market is welcome news for this team.  He is exactly the type of pitcher the Phillies need to land.  There are few pitchers in the league that can eat innings like Halladay.  With him at the top of the rotation, the bullpen can take the first seven innings off on nights that he starts.   But he won’t come cheap.  Amaro needs to find a way to get this deal done.  This is a team that is built to win and holding on to top prospects for the future when a player the caliber of Halladay is available is pure foolishness. 

The first half of the season provided a barometer of where the Phillies stand.  In first place, it is certainly not time to panic.  But a healthy dose of reality says that this team is not nearly as good as last year’s unit.  First place should not serve as comfort to a team with higher aspirations than a division crown.

The Phillies need more problems as much as I need to smack my head repeatedly into a brick wall (although there are some that might argue this is a good idea!).  The fact that the Phillies have serious starting pitching issues is old news at this point, but you can now officially add Cole Hamels to the list of pitching concerns.  Even with the injuries to Brett Myers and Antonio “One Pitch” Bastardo and the inconsistencies of Blanton, Myers, and Happ, Cole Hamels was supposed to be the sure thing.  He was supposed to be the “ace”, the “stopper”, the guy who could make the pitching staff look a lot better because of his dominance.  It hasn’t quite gone according to plan.

Instead, Hamels is 4-5 with a 4.98 ERA.  That looks more like what we would expect from J.A. Happ, not Cole Hamels.  Hamels has not been all bad, this season.  He has had quite a few great outings, but not nearly enough.  On a team with below average starting pitching, those cannot be the numbers of the ace.  Hamels has failed to pitch 6 innings in 6 out of his 15 starts this season.  We know that the bullpen is being taxed due to the poor starting pitching.  When Hamels is on the mound, the bullpen is supposed to get a bit of a break.  I am not saying that we should expect the  nearly perfect Hamels of the 2008 postseason, but we should expect more than what has been shown so far.  Look around the league at the aces of staffs on winning teams; you won’t find one with a 4.98 ERA.  This is not a classic Philly overreaction.  I would love someone to make a good argument on the fact that the ace of the pitching staff has a losing record and a 4.98 ERA with the All Star break fast approaching is no ig deal.  If you can do that, I””d love to hear it.

Like I said, it hasn’t been all bad.  But, statistically speaking, there are a few glaring points of concern.  As far as strikeouts, walks, pitches per inning, and quite a few other stats, Hamels is faring right around normal.  But, he has given up 107 hits in 85 innings.  In his 3 previous seasons, Hamels surrendered well less than one hit per inning.  His ERA in his other 3 seasons was 4.08, 3.39, 3.09 respectively, compared to 4.98 this season.  His batting average against were .237, .237, and .227.  This season, opponents are hitting at a .312 clip against Hamels.  It is pretty clear that Hamels is just way more hittable than he has ever been.

The question that no one knows the answer to is, why?  How can a 25 year old ace and Worl Series MVP suddenly look so average?  Well, I don’t think anyone knows for sure.  There have been whispers that his arm is a bit tired due to the 260+ innings Hamels pitche last year.  That was by far a career high.  Hamels has insisted that he feels fine, but there are times, like last night, where his fastball velocity drops drastically after a few innings.  Obviously, a tired arm would cause the location of his pitches to be off, which would account for his struggles.  But, why has he looked so good in other starts?  Maybe there are games where his arm feels strong, and times where it doesn’t.  No pitcher feels 100% all the time, but a .312 average against is much more than that.

The only other explanation I can think of is that teams have a very clear scouting report on Hamels, and he has become predictable.  Hamels’ changeup is his out pitch, but it seems like opposing hitters know when it is coming.  Maybe he is tipping his pitches, or maybe he has just become too predictable and teams have him scouted to perfection.  Either way, adjustments need to be made.

No matter what the issue is, one thing is very certain:  In order for the Phillies to have another great run, they need Cole Hamels the ace, not Cole Hamels the mediocre pitcher.

There is a rumor making the rounds today that the Philadelphia 76ers might be willing to consider a deal that would send Samuel Dalembert, Willie Green and a future pick to the Houston Rockets for Tracy McGrady.  

At this point, this is little more than a faint whisper in the rumor mill but it bears watching.  It is easy to see why the Sixers would want to make this deal.  Despite the fact that McGrady may miss half the season with microfracture surgery this deal would provide two huge benefits.  

First, McGrady brings with him a HUGE expiring contract that would greatly improve the Sixers cap position and put them in position to make a move in the much-heralded free agent class of 2010.  Second, and probably more importantly, this deal rids the Sixers of two of their favorite whipping boys—Samuel Dalembert and Willie Green.

It is less clear why the Rockets would consider this deal.  With Yao Ming out for an unspecified amount of time, they certainly need some help at the center position.  But do they really believe Dalembert is that help?  In addition, for an expiring contract the size of McGrady’s, I would imagine they would seek more than marginal players in return.

The speculation sounds like a baseless rumor to me but we will keep an eye on any developments. 

Right about the time I post this, NBA free agency will be underway.  Usually that brings about a lot of excitement.  Last year at this time, the Sixers made a huge splash by signing Elton Brand.  Everyone knew that with a new GM and a lot of money to spend under the salary cap, the Sixers were going to try and make a big score.  They got their man, but the acquisition of Brand has yet to pay dividends.  Boy, how times have changed!

This season, the Sixers are over the salary cap.  It appears that the first order of business for Ed Stefanski is to start the conversations regarding the return of Andre Miller.  The Sixers can pay Miller as much as they want, regardless of the cap situation.  It remains to be seen what kind of market will be out there for Miller.  It looks as though the strategy will be to talk with Miller and his agent and make their play to resign him.  Whether they do or not will determine the other pieces the Sixers go after.

The options are pretty simple for the Sixers this summer.  In regards to Miller, they can sign him, not sign him, or work a sign and trade.  Currently, the Sixers have 10 players under contract, if you include Jrue Holiday.  So, regardless of what happens with Miller, the Sixers have spaces to fill.  They can use the mid level exception and veteran minimum as far as salary for free agents.  The mid level exception is between 5 and 6 million dollars per year.  I have scoured the list of free agents, both restricted and unrestricted and I came away unimpressed.  This summer is one of those scenarios where Stefanski and the Sixers are going to need to be creative.  They surely have a plan, and that plan will begin to unfold in the coming weeks. 

Normally, I might lay out what I would like to see the Sixers do in free agency.  But, since I am not a fan of about 90% of the available players, I will keep my opinion simple.  I am now convinced that signing Miller is a good move, but only if he will sign for 2 years.  If Miller wants a much longer contract for too much money, I don’t think it’s worth it.  I don’t want to see Stefanski signing players just to try and gain a few more wins this season.  The Sixers can’t end up in the same situation Billy King stuck them with again.  The Sixers will make a few moves this summer, and starting in about a half hours, news will be trickling out about what those moves might be.  If Stefanski gets creative and pulls a few rabbits out of his hat, I will be pleasantly surprised.  Stay tuned.

The benching is over…for now.  Charlie Manuel announced that Jimmy Rollins will be back in the starting lineup tonight, after Manuel sat Rollins down for a four game benching/mental breather.  Will the break give Rollins a much needed boost?  That remains to be seen.  Manuel certainly feels like it was the right thing to do, and I agree with his decision.  In reality, it was the only decision to make.  It was either that, or continue to watch Rollins struggle and press too hard to make things happen.  He needed to just take a little break and relax.  Manuel has said that the two have been talking throughout the benching, and if that’s the case then my guess is Manuel told Rollins all along, “You’re my guy.”  Charlie Manuel knows his players better than any of us, and he also knows that the Phillies are a better team when Rollins is going well.  There is no other option.  Is anybody excited about the prospect of Eric Bruntlett playing everyday?  I didn’t think so.  I have been as disappointed as anyone else with Rollins so far this season, but I think everyone needs to temper their frustrations a little bit.

We all know the numbers, but in case you don’t have them memorized, here they are:

.211 AVG, 41 R, 63 H, 15 2B, 1 3B, 6 HR, 27 RBI, 16 BB, 32 K, 10 SB, .254 OBP

Obviously, not pretty.  But, my brother recently made a very good point in that there are many fans that view Rollins as the player he was during his amazing 2007 MVP season.  Unfortunately, that season was, by far, his best statistical season in almost every category.  His other 7 full seasons in the big leagues are a much better barometer of what we should expect from Jimmy Rollins.  So, I took my brother’s point a little further because I love beating things into the ground.

As bad as Rollins’ season has been so far, here is what his stats project out to for 162 games:

95 R, 145 H, 35 2B, 2 3B, 14 HR, 62 RBI, 23 SB, 37 BB, 74 K

Now, those numbers would assume that he would hit .211 and have an OBP of .254 at the end of the season.  If we eliminate Rollins’ 2007 numbers from the equation and use his other 7 full seasons, his averages look like this:

.274 AVG, 100 R, 176H, 38 2B, 10 3B, 14 HR, 64 RBI, 37 SB, 54 BB, 86 K, .327 OBP

As you can see, besides average, on base percentage, and hits, Rollins is on pace to have his normal year.  Those categories really go hand in hand, so it’s pretty simple.  Look at it from this way: There are 89 more games in the season.  Rollins needs to average one more hit every 3 games to be right where he normally ends up every season.  His average, his OBP, and hits would be right where they have always been.  I’ll use the immortal words of “Crash” (Kevin Costner) to “Nuke” (Tim Robbins) to illustrate my point:

“Know what the difference between hitting .250 and hitting .300?  It’s 25 hits.  25 hits in 500 at bats is 50 points, okay?  There’s 6 months in a season, that’s about 25 weeks.  That means if you get one extra flare a week-just one-a gork, you get a groundball, you get a groundball with eyes…you get a dying quail, just one more dying quail a week…and you’re in Yankee Stadium.”

For those of you who don’t like great movies, that quote is from “Bull Durham”.  It shouldn’t be too hard for Rollins to average one more hit a week than he has been.  If he does that, his numbers will be just about even with 7 of his 8 other big league seasons.

I think Rollins is too good to hit .211 for the season.  He has struggled, no doubt, but one good month and his numbers will be decent.  Fans need to settle down just a bit.  I am always amused and confused in cases like this when I hear people say they are “sick” of Rollins or that the Phillies should “get rid of him”.  That just doesn’t make sense.  My question is always: And then what?  Who is the shortstop?  When a player like Rollins is struggling, you can’t just replace him.  There are no options on the team, and that is not the type of trade the Phillies need to be making.  Not that any team would give up a great shortstop anyway.  Baseball sometimes mirrors the real world, and in the real world no one is going to trade you their brand new fully loaded 5-series for your 2001 Toyota Camry with 100,000 miles and in need of a new transmission.  Think before you make ridiculous statements, please. 

So, tonight Rollins will be back, and in my opinion, this can only be a good thing for the Phillies.  It has been easy to point the finger at Rollins lately, but he isn’t the only Phillie who has been having terrible at bats during the recent struggles.  If Rollins is even marginally better than he has been, the Phillies improve.  How much worse can he really get?  He will be back in his usual leadoff spot, which I also agree with.  The Phillies aren’t really comprised of a bunch of prototypical leadoff men, including Rollins.  Victorino is about the same historically as Rollins when it comes to statistics.  I’d rather see Rollins getting on base in front of the big RBI men rather than in front of Carlos Ruiz.  Rollins has had his mental break, so we will see what his approach and focus is starting tonight.  Either way, I am sure he will continue to be the topic of a lot of discussion in the Illadelph.

Today is the final day of an ill-fated month highlighted by excruciating losses, struggling superstars and a bloated disabled list.  It is the final day of a month wrought with squandered opportunities and baffling inconsistency.  Tonight’s game against the Atlanta Braves marks the end of June—and maybe that’s a good thing.

Maybe 6/30 will be a cathartic day for this Phillies team that washes away the wrongs of the month and helps to build some much-needed momentum.

Optimism allows us to find some reason for hope when logic tells us otherwise.   It’s no secret that the Phillies have been playing some terrible baseball over the last couple of weeks.  During the most recent 10-game stretch, the team has stumbled to a 3-7 record.  All the while, the disabled list continues to grow at an astonishing rate—with Antonio Bastardo becoming the latest casualty.  Things have been so bad that Jimmy Rollins has been asked to take a seat on the bench for the last four games.

Using logic in place of hope, Phillies fans have plenty of reasons to wonder when this month-long swoon will come to an end.  There is no time like the present.  The Phillies are about to embark on a crucial 6-game stretch against two NL-East foes starting with a 3-game tilt with the Atlanta Braves.  Following that series, it is on to New York for three with the Mets.  The Phillies, at the very least, need to split these games and ideally would take 4 out of 6.  This is an opportunity to put some space between the Mets and Phillies and also squash any notion the Braves might have of competing in this division.

A lot has gone wrong for the Phillies in the month of June.  Tonight is an opportunity to rid themselves of that bad karma and move into July on a positive note.