Heard in the Cheap Seats

Coming into this Phillies season, I think most fans felt pretty good about the ballclub.  The Phillies return most of the roster from the World Series Champs of last year.  Obviously, in order to win the World Series a lot of things have to break right.  But, you also have to excel in certain areas.  What I wanted to do is keep track of 7 different statistical categories that I feel are paramount to the Phillies success this season.  Each category is directly related to what I think are important questions regarding this year’s version of the Phillies.  I will be looking at these stats and tracking them on a series by series basis, starting with a look inside the opening series against the Atlanta Braves, in which the Phils came within a crappy inning’s worth of pitching by the Braves of being swept.  First, let’s take a look at the seven categories and the questions that correspond to them.

1)       Batting Avg.- I am not concerned with the Phillies lineup overall, but it will be interesting to see if players like Werth and Victorino can duplicate their success from last year to continue to make the Phils lineup one of the most potent in baseball.

2)       Hitting With Runners in Scoring Position- Can the Phillies come up big and produce in clutch situations?

3)       Starting Pitching- Assuming Hamels is healthy, the Phils have a top notch #1 starter, but after that I think there are some question marks.  Can Brett Myers, Joe Blanton, Jamie Moyer, and Chan Ho Park provide enough quality starting pitching for the Phils to make another run at the pennant?

4)       Bullpen- The bullpen was a great strength of the Phillies last season, particularly down the stretch and in the playoffs.  Will the loss of Romero for the first 50 games hurt the Phillies?  Can Lidge and Madsen come close or equal their amazing performances of last year?

5)       Hitting Versus Right Handed/Left Handed Pitching- This is one category that I will break into separate stats.  There has been a lot of talk about whether or not the Phillies can be successful with a left handed dominated lineup.  So, I will track this to see how the Phils do in this regard.

6)       Bench/Pinch Hitting- I personally have questions as to the strength of the Phillies bench.  Do the Phils have the right components on their bench to provide a lift when they need it?

There you have the stats that I will be taking a close look at throughout the season.  A lot of the Phillies overall success will be directly related to these statistics.  So, now on to a closer look at the 3 game series against the Braves in which the Phils lost 2 out of 3.

1)       Batting Avg.

 21 for 99 in the series= .212 avg.

       .319 On Base Pct. and .323 Slugging Pct.

2)       Runners in Scoring Position

6 for 30 with RISP= .200 Avg.

13 RBI

3)       Starting Pitching

0 -2

15 IP, 15 ER, 9.00 ERA, 25 H, .362 BA, 5 BB, 14 K’s, 2.00 WHIP

4)       Bullpen

1 – 0

12 IP, 4 ER, 3.00 ERA, 3H, ..077 BA, 4BB, 11 K’s, 0.58 WHIP

5)       Versus RHP

17 for 84= .202 avg.

12 runs, .313 OBP, .321 Slugging Pct.

6)       Versus LHP

4 for 15= .267 avg.

1 run, .353 OBP, .333 Slugging Pct.

7)       Bench/Pinch Hitting

2 for 8= .250 avg.

3 RBI, 2BB, 1 R

We all know the Phillies got off to a rough start, so I am not making anything out of these stats, but as the season moves along we will see if any concerning trends evolve.  The bullpen was excellent, and that is about the only positive statistic out of the group.  I won’t be surprised to see a ton of improvement against the Rockies.

There is an entire industry predicated on projecting the futures of 19-year old boys that show athletic promise.  These projections are obsessed over by scouts and fans alike (unless you work for the Yankees, then you just spend hundreds of millions of dollars to get better).  And for good reason.  The depth of a team’s farm system is often a good indicator of future success.  Of course, some players will not live up to their potential and others will take us by surprise, but the teams that are the most successful at cultivating young talent are the ones that consistently win at the big-league level.

Look no further than last year’s World Series matchup for proof.  The Phillies’ nucleus consists almost solely of players that were drafted by the Phillies and escalated through the ranks.  Cole Hamels, Jimmie Rollins, Ryan Howard and Chase Utley is a brag brook any organization would be proud to call its own.  On the other side, the Rays too consisted almost entirely of homegrown, young talent.   Is it any wonder then that these were the last two teams standing come October?

So how do the Phillies fare when it comes to the depth of their current farm system?  Keith Law of Scout’s Inc. and espn.com fame has just released his 2009 organizational and prospect rankings.  The Phillies come in at a very respectable number 11 with the top prospect being Jason Donald at #48.  In their own division, both the Atlanta Braves and the Florida Marlins have higher-rated systems.  But the Phillies’ numbers are skewed a bit.  For starters, the aforementioned dearth of talent that is at the major league level undoubtedly depleted the ranks.  But to have that number of prospects develop into top-performers at the major league level is a rare feat.  The #11 ranking does not take into account to what extend current teams have built their rosters with homegrown talents.  In that category, the Phillies can stand toe-to-toe with any organization.

In addition, Law’s rankings only value what is a known commodity.  For example, the Phillies have several raw talents at the lower-levels of their minor league system that could turn into top-level prospects before the year is complete.  Domnic Brown and Michael Taylor come to mind in that department.

Recent history suggests that the Phillies have a knack for identifying top talent.  But more than that, the success of the big-league club illustrates that once the Phils acquire that talent, they are no slouches at developing talent either.  While some may look at the #11 ranking and feel discouraged by the presence of two-division rivals in the top 10, I first look at the current roster before passing judgment.  The Phillies farm system is strong and track record indicates that young talent will continue to flood Philly. 

Other Phillies Notes: In other Phillies notes, it looks like the team is continuing its search for a right-handed bat to add to the bench.  Growing weary of Nomar’s indecision, the team has turned its attention to another grizzled vet—Moises Alou.  While Alou would add some nice pop off the bench, his health would be a question as would his desire to except a limited role.

When I was in college, I took a sports journalism class and for my final paper, I wrote a story called, “The Video Camera of Sports.” The essence of the story was to get at the root of that burning question that has always lingered for me: what is the root of my special connection with sports? Much like a long-lasting friendship, I have felt a unique bond with sports that goes far beyond a simple enjoyment of the game. It is more than that.

In writing my story, I came to the revelation that my enjoyment of sports had as much to do with the game between the lines as it did with the memory it evoked. Each game I played as a kid prominently featured a friend or family member. Sports meant something to me because it framed my childhood—literally. My childhood is in some ways a tale woven through various sporting events. It helped connect me to what mattered most.

Today, I was reminded again of the power of sports when I learned of the death of long-time and legendary Atlanta Braves announcer, Skip Caray. I can’t look at Skip or hear him broadcast a game without hearing the legendary call of the Braves winning the 1992 NLCS in dramatic fashion over the Pirates.

Take it away Skip: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MuYKTv8nqhM.

“Here comes Bream! Here’s the throw to the plate! He iiiiiiiisssssssss … safe! Braves win! Braves win! Braves win! Braves win! … Braves win!”

Like many Braves fans, every time I hear that call it sends a chill down my spine, and often, a tear down my cheek. The chill? That can be attributed to the memory of a Braves team that fought back to win a tough NLCS with the most unlikely of heroes. The tear? That can be attributed to everything that goes alongside the memory of that night—namely, watching the game with my Mom.

When someone like Skip Caray passes away, all we can do as mere bystanders is remember what role he played in our lives. In my life, Skip Caray plays a role in that tear.

Every time I read or hear those words I vividly remember watching that game with my Mom. My brother, four years my elder, had gone to bed because the Braves had fallen behind, but my Mom and I stayed up to watch it from my parents bedroom. Even as a 10-year old, I remember thinking the Braves’ fortunes were doomed when a relative unknown came to the plate—Francisco Cabrera. But then the unthinkable happened. Cabrera lined a single to left field and I leapt to my feet on my parents’ bed and plead with the painfully slow Sid Bream to score. More than that, I remember my Mom screaming right alongside me, refusing to go to sleep until I was done watching the game. Of course he did score, and the Braves were on their way to the World Series. But the tear is not about the Braves, it is about the time watching that game with my Mom.

Few memories from my childhood stand out as vividly as the one watching the Braves win the 1992 NLCS. That is what Skip Caray meant to me.

On this toasty Sunday morning here in Boston I’d like to offer our loyal readers a tip free of charge courtesy of Heard in the Cheap Seats: Whatever you do, do NOT lock yourself out of the house on a 90 degree day and then proceed to walk to Dunkin Donuts for an extra large hot coffee.  It’s really not a smart move–a lesson I had to learn the hard way this morning.  But I digress; Sunday Smattering follows ladies and gentlemen.

• Big Bummer for Big Brown: The horse racing world takes center stage at least once year (the Kentucky Derby) and at most twice a year when a horse is chasing the illusive Triple Crown.  As has been the case many times before, the media anointed Big Brown the savior of horse racing after a trying season and practically handed the horse the victory.  But the horse racing gods would not oblige and Big Brown delivered a clunker–finishing dead last at the most grueling race of the Triple Crown series.  Da’Tara, rode by the same jockey that spoiled Smarty Jones’ Triple Crown bid, played the spoiler once again.?

• Tempers Flare in Beantown: On a night when the Celtics were supposed to have the limelight all to themselves, the Red Sox stole a bit of the city’s attention with two separate incidents.  First, Coco Crisp charged the mound after being plunked by James Shields.  Most baseball brawl prove rather uneventful with a whole of shoving but not much fighting.  This one was a bit different.  Shields, instead of backing off the mound and praying for the hasty arrival of his catcher, took three steps toward Coco and attempted to deliver a haymaker.  With boxing in his lineage, Coco adeptly dodged the punch and then succumbed to the pile of Rays’ players that went after him.  Later in the game, Manny and Kevin Youkilis had a small dust up.  Maybe Yuk reads Heard in the Cheap Seats and read my call to action from last week?

• Chipper Hits Number 400: One of my favorite baseball players of all time, Chipper Jones, reached a career milestone this week–HR number 400.  Of course, immediately after the blast, the posts came fast and furious debating his hall of fame credentials. Let me put it this way, if he retired right now, he is easily in the top 3 in terms of switch hitters of all time.  That alone is enough to get him in. But, Chipper himself says he would like to play another 4 years at a minimum provided he remains healthy and the Braves would like him back.  Let’s just assume for argument’s sake he sees a fairly sharp decline in his power numbers after this season and only hits 20 HRs a year (a huge stretch) for the next four years.  Assuming he hits about 20 more this season, that would put him at 501 HRs for his career.  Now, let’s look at hits.  Let’s say he finished this season with 200 hits, which would be an additional 110 on top of where he currently stands.  Then for the next four years, he sees a slight decline to 175 a year.  That would put him above the 3,000 hit mark for his career.  In terms of RBI, he will probably get another 60 this year followed by four seasons at a conservative 80 per year.  That would give him 1700 RBI for his career.  My point is this: he is already a HOFer, everything he tacks on from here on out is just gravy.
• John Smoltz to Have Surgery: John Smoltz had to make the painful decision this week to undergo season-ending surgery, which begs the question, is this the end?  Contrary to the opinion of Jayson Stark, I simply can’t envision this being the end for Smoltz.  Before the announcement, Smoltz was making statements that would indicate if he had to endure another surgery he would retire.  But when faced with that reality, he quickly retreated from his stance.  John Smoltz is too much of a competitor to have this be the way he goes out.  He’ll be back for one more go around next season.
• Must Win Tonight for Lakers: Is it too early to call this game a must-win?  I don’t think so.  The Lakers need to come out of Boston tonight with a split or they can kiss their title hopes goodbye.

This Sunday morning marks the return of Sunday Smattering–the column that is my facade for not being able to narrow my ideas down to one post–so I call it a smattering and post everything. Pretty clever huh?

Without further adieu, Sunday Smattering ladies and gentlemen:

• Lakers vs. Celtics: After all the hype, drama and predictions, the two most storied franchises in NBA history will once again meet to decide the NBA title. The story lines here are endless. As much as I loathe both of these teams, I even have to admit that this final brings a certain nostalgic feel that is a rarity in the world of basketball. My prediction? Lakers in 6. Bolder prediction? Brian Scalabrine, in his only playing time of the series, gets so overwhelmed with nostalgia he clotheslines Kobe Bryant going to the bucket to reenact the Kurt Rambis and Kevin McHale incident.
• Taylor Wants Out: Does this really come as a surprise? Forget the fact that Jason Taylor is not a 3-4 defensive end, the preferred scheme of Bill Parcels. Forget the notion that Taylor is 34 years old. Forget all of the logical reasons why Jason Taylor and the Dolphins are about as good a match as Charles Barkley and Las Vegas. Did we really think that a guy that spent his offseason prancing around on national TV would mesh with the stone-faced, tough-as-nails, Bill Parcels? Not a chance.
• Rookie Phenoms Rule the Week: Between the debuts of Clayton Kershaw and Jay Bruce (I’m still pissed about the walk-off last night against my Braves) two heralded rookies showed their chops right from the outset. Both of these kids have bright futures, but let’s not forget they are rookies–struggles will come.
• Will the Braves Ever Win on the Road?: How is that the same team can be 7-20 on the road and 22-7 at home? Seriously folks, I am at a loss here. I understand that there will almost always be a discrepancy, but clearly this is a case of a Braves team that plays Jekyl and Hyde. If they don’t get it straightened out soon, they can forget about the NL East crown.
• Historic HRs: Last night, Manny Ramirez hit number 500 for his career and Griffey hit number 599. These two could not be more different. By all accounts, Griffey is a nice guy that plays the game the right way. Ramirez on the other hand is an immature prima Dona. Why he feels the need to constantly draw attention to himself through antics on and off the field is beyond me. He is one of the greatest right-handed hitters to ever play this game–let that do the talking Manny. I don’t care if that was his 500^th HR last night, if he ever posed that long and walked up the baseline like that in a game I was managing, the next fastball would be placed square between his ribs. Can we put out a referendum to the league on this? Throwing at hitters is illegal, unless it is Manny Ramirez after an unnecessarily long pose following a HR (or single for that matter).
• Heard in the Cheap Seats Gets a Makeover: Alright, so I am not a Web designer, nor will I ever be–hence the awkward orange and green colors from our previous design. We’ve gone with a new look, albeit still not perfect. In addition, check out the About section, it now reflects our staff of two instead of our staff of one–a long overdue change.

With spring training right around the corner, I thought now was as good a time as any to throw out some predictions on the upcoming season. For the next few weeks, I will take each division one by one and provide an analysis of how I think things will shake out.

For the first installment, let’s take a look at the NL East. Full disclosure: I am a Braves fan.

The NL East promises to be a hotly-contested division. Every year we seem to speculate that the NL East rivals will beat up on each other so much during the season that only one team will come out of the division. With the Mets adding Johan Santana, the Braves having a quietly productive offseason and the Phillies addressing some critical flaws, this is certainly a three-horse race at the moment.

Prediction:

Maybe I am just talking myself into it, but I honestly believe the Braves will win the division this year with the Mets finishing a close second. I think the Mets lineup has some serious flaws and while the addition of Santana will pay dividends, it is important to remember he only pitches every five games. The Braves biggest flaw is currently in center field and it is only minor at that. The Phillies have a solid team, but I think the loss of Aaron Rowand will take its toll on the team. Rowand was the heart and soul of that team.

In the end, the Braves rotation depth will prevail and they will win the division with a 3 game lead on the Mets at season end. I’ll provide analysis following the standings.

Final Standings:

1.) Atlanta Braves: 95-67

2.) New York Mets: 92-70

3.) Philadelphia Phillies: 87-75

4.) Florida Marlins: 78-84

5.) Washington Nationals: 70-92

The Contenders:

Philadelphia Phillies:

Going into the offseason, the Phils biggest need was adding rotation depth. The team has failed to address that weakness thus far through free agency, though there has been speculation that the team is interested in Kris Benson. That being said, the team essentially added a frontline starter with the move of Brett Myers to the starting rotation. The combination of Cole Hamels and Myers at the top of the rotation stacks up well against the one-two punches of the Mets and Braves. After that, the rotation gets a bit dodgy. The Phillies do have one of the best lineups in the National League. Jimmy Rollins will be hard-pressed to replicate his MVP season, but he will produce a solid season. Chase Utley is a perennial MVP candidate, along with Ryan Howard. I think the Geoff Jenkins signing was a mistake and he will quickly fall into disfavor with the brutal fans of Philadelphia. Adding Pedro Feliz as the third baseman will prove to be a nice pick up for the team that had serious issues at the position last season. From a bullpen stand point, the Phils shrewdly added Brad Lidge. Mark my words: Lidge will be good for 35 saves this year at a minimum. Top to bottom, the bullpen should prove to be a formidable unit.

Atlanta Braves:

The Braves offseason was wrought with questions about rotation depth and the void left in center field by the departure of Andruw Jones. And let’s not underestimate the impact of long-time Braves GM John Schuerholz. But despite that, I believe the Braves had an extremely productive offseaon.

The addition of Tom Glavine adds much needed rotation depth. Say what you will about the veteran left-hander, but he still knows how to eat innings and win ballgames—a quality hard to find in number three starters. John Smoltz is still a frontline starter and Tim Hudson will be in the Cy Young discussion this year. If Mike Hampton can stay healthy, the Braves may be armed with the best rotation from top to bottom in the NL East. The Braves lineup is also extremely solid without a major weakness outside of lack of speed. Mark Kotsay, if healthy, will be a capable addition to the Braves lineup. But I have a hunch we may be seeing Jordan Schafer a bit earlier than expected. Mark Texeria for a full season will provide Chipper Jones with some much-needed protection Andruw Jones was unable to provide. The bullpen has some question marks. Rafel Soriano has ability to serve as a top-shelf closer, but he needs to avoid some of the tough stretches that plagued him last season.

The New York Mets:

The Mets offseaon was about one thing—adding an ace to the rotation. Up until a few days ago, it didn’t look like they would be able to get that done. But when Omar Minaya swooped in and snagged Johan Santanna, the Mets immediately changed the prospects of the upcoming season. The rotation went from suspect to solid. The Mets lineup still remains solid, but is not on par with either the Phillies or the Braves. Carlos Delgado is not what he once was, and Louis Castillo is severely overrated. In the outfield, Moises Alou will not put up the gaudy numbers of last season. In the bullpen, the Mets are in good shape, with Billy Wagner once again providing stability at the close spot.

The Pretenders:

The Florida Marlins and Washington Nationals simply cannot compete for the league crown this year. The Marlins have some outstanding young talent across the board, but the team cannot hope to go toe-to-toe with the big guns of this division. If the team can somehow find a way to hang on to the likes of Hanley Ramierez, Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham and Sirgeo Mitre, despite budget concerns, it can be competive in relatively short order.

The Nationals are a different story all together. The team is weak in just about every area, and may be staring a 90 loss season in the face.