Heard in the Cheap Seats

There is an old sports cliché that goes, “Defense wins championships”. We have all heard it before. Some clichés are just lip service and mean absolutely nothing, while others are said over and over again because they are true. Well, the reality is, defense really does win championships. I say all this because many fans, including myself, have continued to complain about the Sixers offensive deficiencies. We have debated whether or not Elton Brand fit into the Sixers fast breaking style. We have complained about the lack of perimeter shooting on the Sixers, and we have implored the team to put a lineup on the floor that allows the Sixers to play up tempo and take advantage of their superior athleticism. All of these are valid complaints, suggestions, and accurate observations of this Sixers team. Unfortunately, they are not the main problem. It would be nice to have 4 sharp shooters surrounding a 7’, 300 pound center with great passing skills, but that kind of team doesn’t come around often. While it is extremely fun to watch a young and athletic team run every chance they get, name me the last NBA Championship team whose game was predicated on playing that style. Was it the Magic Johnson Showtime Lakers? It might have been. But, those teams could crush you in a half court set as well. My point is, having an efficient offense is nice, playing up tempo is nice, but it will not solve the Sixers main problems and lead them to a championship. I have said many times on this site that good defense leads to good offense. Being able to get out in transition certainly helps when it is there. I am not saying that an NBA team can win a championship with a terrible offensive team, but I am saying that they can’t win with an average or below average defensive team. It is no secret why most of the top defensive teams in the league also sit near the top in offensive field goal percentage. So, I went back and did some research to emphasize my point. Take a look at what I found.

I went back and looked at the defensive stats in 3 separate categories for the two teams who met in the NBA Finals since the ‘96-‘97 season. The 3 categories are points per game, field goal percentage, and 3 point field goal percentage. The rankings for each category are in parentheses.

’96-97- PPG- CHI(5), UTAH(7) FG%- CHI(3), UTAH(6) 3PT%- CHI(1), UTAH(9)

’97-98- PPG- CHI(2), UTAH(10) FG%- CHI(8), UTAH(6) 3PT%- CHI(2), UTAH(11)

’98-99- PPG- SA(2), NY(4) FG%- SA(1), NY(2) 3PT%- SA(1), NY(16)

’99-00- PPG- LA(6), IND(12) FG%- LA(1), IND(13) 3PT%- LA(5), IND(2)

’00-01- PPG- LA(16), PHI(5) FG%- LA(8), PHI(5) 3PT%- LA(5), PHI(18)

’01-02- PPG- LA(10), NJ(6) FG%- LA(2), NJ(6) 3PT%- LA(1), NJ(9)

’02-03- PPG- SA(2), NJ(3) FG%- SA(1), NJ(3) 3PT%- SA(6), NJ(18)

’03-04- PPG- DET(1), LA(13) FG%- DET(1), LA(13) 3PT%- DET(1), LA(5)

’04-05- PPG- SA(2), DET(1) FG%- SA(5), DET(4) 3PT%- SA(11), DET(2)

’05-06- PPG- MIA(11), DAL(8) FG%- MIA(7), DAL(10), 3PT%- MIA(9), DAL(14)

’06-07- PPG- SA(1), CLE(3) FG%- SA(3), CLE(6) 3PT%- SA(2), CLE(1)

’07-08- PPG- BOS(1), LA(19) FG%- BOS(1), LA(4) 3PT%- BOS(1), LA(14)

To me, those statistics are staggering. In 7 of the last 12 seasons, the NBA Champ finished 1^st or 2^nd in defensive points per game. Also, the eventual NBA Champ has finished no worse than 8^th in opponents field goal percentage, and no team has even appeared in the Finals that finished lower than 13^th. Remember that 2000-2001 Sixers team that we all love so much? They got there based on being a top defensive team. Yes, Allen Iverson had an MVP year. He averaged 31.1 points per game. The next highest scoring average was Aaron McKie with 11 points per game! We all forget how mediocre of an offensive team the Sixers were that year. They finished the year 16^th in point per game, 14^th in FG%, and 26^th in 3 point FG%. This season the Sixers rank 24^th, 16^th, and 30^th in those offensive categories. Not very good at all, but I would argue that with better defense those numbers would be drastically different. Currently, the Sixers rank 10^th in defensive points per game,14^th in FG%, and 15^th in 3 point FG%. They are a very mediocre defensive team at best. I want to reiterate that I am not completely discounting the fact that the Sixers offense needs to improve, but I am saying that it is very difficult to excel on the offensive end if your defense does not show up consistently. The teams currently with the best records in the NBA, for the most part, rank at the top of the league in all the defensive categories.

So, the million dollar question is: How can the Sixers improve defensively? It is important for NBA teams to be able to defend the pick and roll and have someone who can guard the lane as a shot blocking threat. I don’t want to get into breaking down each player’s defensive abilities. I had the fortune of playing for quite a few excellent coaches, and I was always told that defense is about communication and effort. In the NBA, the players are the best athletes in the world. The Sixers have some incredible athletes on their team. There is no excuse to not have a top notch defensive team. The problem, in my opinion, is that they don’t want it enough. Players like Sam Dalembert get lazy when things aren’t going his way. The other problem is the Sixers don’t communicate well on defense and tend to be too slow to react. There is no other reason that they get lost on their rotations, can’t guard the pick and roll, and constantly leave shooters open at the end of games. I truly think the Sixers are a team that plays hard, but not very smart on the defensive end. Is it coaching? I don’t know. I have always been of the belief that if you’ve played this game long enough, you should understand how to communicate with each other. But, there is a difference between playing hard and having a burning desire to shut your opponent down. The Sixers do not have that. Not even close. When Kevin Garnett came to the Celtics he transformed that team into the best defensive team in the league. Players like Paul Pierce became excellent defenders. Did they learn how to play defense overnight? Nope. Kevin Garnett brought a commitment and intensity to that team on the defensive end. He demanded it of them. I don’t see any Sixers playing with that intensity and demanding it of the rest of the team. The offense needs to improve, but in order for the Sixers to make any progress as a team, the biggest commitment needs to come on the defensive end.

TONIGHT’S GAME

Although the Sixers have shown that they can pretty much throw up a stinker against any team, there will be no excuse for them to lose to Memphis tonight. The Sixers have 5 very winnable games coming up on the schedule and they need to take advantage. They have had the whole week off, so they need to focus and make sure they come out of the gates strong. I really just want to see aggressiveness on both ends of the floor. Take the game to the Grizzlies and leave with a win. Any other result would just be unacceptable. There have been a few rumors that the Sixers may make a change in the starting lineup, but I doubt it happens tonight. We shall see.

Get used to this phrase: there are no moral victories in the NBA.  Of course, the last time I uttered that phrase it catapulted the Sixers to its best stretch of basketball this season.  Here’s hoping it will do the same this time around.

Photo courtesy of Philly.com

As my brother wrote here, last night’s game was a chance to erase any lingering memories from the performance against the New Jersey Nets.  While seemingly unlikely, the stars appeared to be aligning for a Sixers victory.  With Kevin Garnett on the bench with the flu, last night was as good an opportunity as any to knock off the defending champs.   And with 2:40 remaining in the fourth quarter and a five-point lead it appeared that the Sixers might do just that.  But they were unable to put the proverbial nail in the coffin.

With six seconds left in the game, Andre Iguodala appeared to deliver the dagger with a fadeaway jumper from the top of the key despite Paul Pierce being draped all over him.  Maybe it was the Philadelphia in me, but at that moment I turned to my fiancé and said: “The Sixers are going to lose this game.”  Of course, my prediction turned out to be true.  On a beautifully designed play (to go along with some terrible defensive communication), Paul Pierce lured the defense into the paint with dribble penetration.  Meanwhile, Ray Allen slipped off a solid screen from Glen Davis to find his spot in the corner and calmly deliver the game-winner.  Game. Set. Match.

A lot of Sixers’ fans will talk about the ability of the team to hang with the defending champs.  I’m not buying it.  This was a Celtics team missing its catalyst.  It was a team that did not play its best game and was on the ropes for much of the contest.  But the difference between the Celtics and Sixers was clear last night-a good team never lets its opponent off the ropes.

Sure, the Sixers did some things well last night, namely, made free throws and protected the basketball.  But their shooting ills plagued them once again as evidenced by the 1-8 performance from beyond the arc.  The team also failed to play consistently good defense.  It is tough to beat an average team when they shoot 54% from the field—let alone an exceptional one like the Celtics.  That defensive deficiency reared its ugly head on the final play when Ray Allen was inexplicably left alone in the corner.  Analyze that play all you want, but the bottom line is it was a systemic breakdown in team defense.  Thad overcommitted on the help of Paul Pierce and Sammy Dalembert was woefully slow on his rotation.  Couple that with the fact that the team chose to ignore the instruction of Coach Tony DiLeo to switch on every screen and you can understand why Ray Allen was all by his lonesome.

The Sixers hung with the defending champs last night for the entire game.  Two weeks ago they hung with arguably the best team of this decade in the San Antonio Spurs.  In each case they came up empty and are now staring at a sub-.500 record.  So if it helps you sleep at night, take solace in the fact that the Sixers are good enough to compete—I’ll wallow in the fact that good enough ain’t good enough.

Tonight’s game against the Boston Celtics had me thinking about how great a series would be with the all-time rosters for each franchise.  It’s one of those topics that are constantly debated, and there is no real answer to what the outcome would be.  That doesn’t mean it’s not fun to argue about.  I didn’t want to do a whole break down here because I know I would end up doing way too much.  So, instead I thought I would give a roster of 10 players on each team and I welcome anyone to comment on their thoughts or lineup changes. 

BOSTON CELTICS

C- Russell

F- McHale

F- Bird

G- Havlicek

G- Cousy

Bench- Parrish, Garnett, Pierce, Sam Jones, D. Johnson

PHILADELPHIA 76ERS

C- Chamberlain

F- Malone

F- Erving

G- Toney

G- Cheeks

Bench- Barkley, Schayes, Cunningham, Iverson, Greer

What a collection of players.  I wish there was a way that we could actually make this happen.  I ended up leaving some damn good names off each list, most notably Cowens for the Celtics and Bobby Jones for the Sixers.  Originally I had Barkley in the starting five, but replaced him with Moses because I didn’t like the match ups.  Also, Havlicek made his mark as a sixth man, not to mention he was more of a small forward than a 2 guard, but I just loved the idea of him going up against Andrew Toney.  Speaking of Toney, I had to start him.  They didn’t call him the “Boston Strangler” for nothing.  I also loved the idea of having Iverson coming off the bench, and starting a true point guard in Maurice Cheeks.  The coaches would obviously be Auerbach, and Billy Cunningham as a player/coach.  I welcome any thoughts that anyone has on this.  Its tough to go against the winners that the Celtics have on their roster, so I will say that if these teams matched up in 10 seven game series’, the Celtice would win 6 out of 10 of those.  Unfortunately, we will never know!

The only way to get rid of the stench of a bad loss is to take the court and win.  Well, the Sixers didn’t just have a bad loss against the Nets on Saturday, they had a horrible one.  It was as ugly a defeat as I can remember seeing.  It was completely indefensible.  The funny part about a game like that is it can go either way.  The psyche of an athlete is a peculiar thing.  The loss to the Nets could be the kick in the ass that the Sixers needed.  The reminder that even though they had been playing good basketball of late, this is a team that needs to play focused for 48 minutes or they can lose any game to any team.  On the flip side, it could have a lingering stench that affects the team until the all star break and possibly beyond.  Yes, it’s just one game, but we have all seen how one bad loss can affect more than just one game in the standings.  The Ravens debacle and subsequent benching of McNabb seemed to be a catalyst for the turnaround of the Eagles season.  Or how about this past college football season when Florida threw up a stink bomb against Mississippi, and Tim Tebow vowed that it wouldn’t happen again.  We all know how their season turned out.  There are also countless examples of bad losses in every sport that teams never seem to recover from.  Obviously, there is no proof of any of this, but the human mind is a strange thing, and confidence or a lack thereof can be quite powerful. 

In my mind, playing the defending champion Celtics tonight couldn’t have come at a better time.  Are the Sixers a better team than the Celtics?  Hell no!  Do they match up well with the Celtics?  Not a chance!  Deep down do I think they will win tonight against the Celtics?  Nope.  But, stranger things have happened.  See, I think there is no better time to play the best team in the NBA than coming off that joke of a second half against the Nets.  If the Sixers can somehow find a way to play a near perfect 48 minutes, and pull out a victory against the Celtics, that will certainly take the Nets loss and punt it to the moon.  (I have no idea where that phrase came from but I’m sticking with it)  I had stated on this site that the Sixers needed to win 5 out of 7 games on this home stand.  Well, they already lost one and conventional wisdom says that tonight will be number 2.  That would mean they need to win all four remaining games, at least, according to yours truly.  They can absolutely accomplish that, but not if they allow the loss to the Nets to linger.  This is when the leaders of the team need to step to the forefront.  How they play against the Celtics will be a good indicator of the team’s toughness.  Will they step up and play confident, tough basketball or will they shrink in the face of the mighty Celtics?  Will they rid themselves of the demons from Saturday, or will they allow them to stick around for awhile longer.  I know it’s hard to use a game that even under normal circumstances we wouldn’t expect the Sixers to win as a barometer.  But, that’s where we are.  This team needs to restore their confidence or they could be in big trouble.  I guess we will see what the Sixers are made of.

So far the NBA Finals has gone exactly the way I thought it would go, and the exact opposite of the way most experts said it would go. I figured that the Celtics would win the first two games of this series in Boston. I do think that the Lakers will bounce back in a tight Game 3, but I do not feel they will win this series. I stated previously here that this would go 7 games, and it still may, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see it over way sooner. Many of the advantages that I laid out on this site, turned out to be even bigger in the first two games. The Celtics have dominated all the aggressive play, especially loose balls and rebounding. The main problem for the Lakers, however, is that they came into this series riding high due to a high octane offense. Though the Western Conference was much better this year, the Lakers have not had to face a defense as physical, athletic, and suffocating as the Celtics. The Spurs did do a better than average job of forcing Kobe Bryant into taking jumpers, but unfortunately he made most of them. The Celtics, so far, have done a masterful job. They have intimidated the Lakers physically, and kept them away from the paint. When the Lakers are not hitting from the outside, their high octane offense starts running on unleaded. They have been settling for outside shots, and their patented ball movement and spacing has disappeared. Some people feel that with the 4^th quarter comeback in Game 2, the Lakers have gained an advantage. I disagree. The Celtics simply went to sleep.

Phil Jackson, the Lakers fans, and the Lakers can complain all they want about the officiating, but that won’t win ballgames. Not to mention, the Lakers have benefited from the refs calls as well, specifically in the Utah series. Go back and look at the numbers. Seriously. That means you Lakers fans. Its easy to point at the refs or the free throw disparity, but even in doing that you might miss the fact that there was only seven more fouls called on L.A. This again points to a lack of aggressiveness. When they were dominating from the free throw line against the Jazz they were the more aggressive team. They might get more calls if they actually grew a set of stones and actually drove to the basket. They need to get more physical and aggressive. Maybe they need to have their own equivalent of the 1984 Finals clothesline of Kurt Rambis courtesy of Kevin McHale. That changed the tone of the series for Boston. Instead of complaining about officiating, maybe one of the Lakers should have put Leon Powe on his ass instead of offering him a cup of tea on his way to another easy dunk. Kobe Bryant has a meanness and tenacity but I am not seeing it from the likes of Gasol, Odom, Radmanovic, etc. That is the problem. It has been stated so many times that defense wins championships. Cliché as it may be, it also most times proves to be true. So, can the Lakers come back and win 4 of the next 5 games, two of which would be in Boston? Anything is possible. Is it likely? Not unless they take off their skirts and act like they are playing for the trophy. Like I said, I believe the Lakers will make this an interesting series again by winning Game 3, but I would not be shocked, if they get off to a poor start, to see them implode. Then we will see the frustration of Kobe realizing that his teammates can’t stand up to the pressure, and then this puppy is over. We will see the preseason, hating his teammates Kobe Bryant. Lakers fans better hope that moment doesn’t come.

On this toasty Sunday morning here in Boston I’d like to offer our loyal readers a tip free of charge courtesy of Heard in the Cheap Seats: Whatever you do, do NOT lock yourself out of the house on a 90 degree day and then proceed to walk to Dunkin Donuts for an extra large hot coffee.  It’s really not a smart move–a lesson I had to learn the hard way this morning.  But I digress; Sunday Smattering follows ladies and gentlemen.

• Big Bummer for Big Brown: The horse racing world takes center stage at least once year (the Kentucky Derby) and at most twice a year when a horse is chasing the illusive Triple Crown.  As has been the case many times before, the media anointed Big Brown the savior of horse racing after a trying season and practically handed the horse the victory.  But the horse racing gods would not oblige and Big Brown delivered a clunker–finishing dead last at the most grueling race of the Triple Crown series.  Da’Tara, rode by the same jockey that spoiled Smarty Jones’ Triple Crown bid, played the spoiler once again.?

• Tempers Flare in Beantown: On a night when the Celtics were supposed to have the limelight all to themselves, the Red Sox stole a bit of the city’s attention with two separate incidents.  First, Coco Crisp charged the mound after being plunked by James Shields.  Most baseball brawl prove rather uneventful with a whole of shoving but not much fighting.  This one was a bit different.  Shields, instead of backing off the mound and praying for the hasty arrival of his catcher, took three steps toward Coco and attempted to deliver a haymaker.  With boxing in his lineage, Coco adeptly dodged the punch and then succumbed to the pile of Rays’ players that went after him.  Later in the game, Manny and Kevin Youkilis had a small dust up.  Maybe Yuk reads Heard in the Cheap Seats and read my call to action from last week?

• Chipper Hits Number 400: One of my favorite baseball players of all time, Chipper Jones, reached a career milestone this week–HR number 400.  Of course, immediately after the blast, the posts came fast and furious debating his hall of fame credentials. Let me put it this way, if he retired right now, he is easily in the top 3 in terms of switch hitters of all time.  That alone is enough to get him in. But, Chipper himself says he would like to play another 4 years at a minimum provided he remains healthy and the Braves would like him back.  Let’s just assume for argument’s sake he sees a fairly sharp decline in his power numbers after this season and only hits 20 HRs a year (a huge stretch) for the next four years.  Assuming he hits about 20 more this season, that would put him at 501 HRs for his career.  Now, let’s look at hits.  Let’s say he finished this season with 200 hits, which would be an additional 110 on top of where he currently stands.  Then for the next four years, he sees a slight decline to 175 a year.  That would put him above the 3,000 hit mark for his career.  In terms of RBI, he will probably get another 60 this year followed by four seasons at a conservative 80 per year.  That would give him 1700 RBI for his career.  My point is this: he is already a HOFer, everything he tacks on from here on out is just gravy.
• John Smoltz to Have Surgery: John Smoltz had to make the painful decision this week to undergo season-ending surgery, which begs the question, is this the end?  Contrary to the opinion of Jayson Stark, I simply can’t envision this being the end for Smoltz.  Before the announcement, Smoltz was making statements that would indicate if he had to endure another surgery he would retire.  But when faced with that reality, he quickly retreated from his stance.  John Smoltz is too much of a competitor to have this be the way he goes out.  He’ll be back for one more go around next season.
• Must Win Tonight for Lakers: Is it too early to call this game a must-win?  I don’t think so.  The Lakers need to come out of Boston tonight with a split or they can kiss their title hopes goodbye.

On Thursday night, the long-awaited NBA finals match up finally took its rightful place at the center of the sports universe. And if you examine what transpired in Game 1, there are a few subtle and not-so-subtle lessons that are evident and might impact how the remainder of this series plays out.
Lesson 1: Rajon Rondo Not Awestruck

Coming into this series, I believed this would be the primary factor in determining the Celtics success in the series. Reason being, you have a pretty good idea that you will get approximately 60 points out of the big three every night, but somewhere along the line you need to find an additional 30-40 points to win ballgames. In Game 1, the big three combined for 65 points. Tack on the 15 that Rondo scored and it is easy to see why the Celtics came away with a W. But more telling than the 15 points in my mind was the mere two turnovers. If he is able to keep that turnover rate steady for the remainder of the series, the Celtics will be in good shape–regardless of how many points he scores.

Lesson 2: Doc Still Hasn’t Learned his Lesson

Quietly, the skepticism in Boston regarding Doc Rivers’ coaching prowess grew from a barely audible whisper to a full-fledged buzz. What Doc Rivers needs to realize is that his best coaching asset is pulling back on the coaching. He is over thinking this game and it shows in his rotation. With the extended TV breaks in the playoffs, there is no reason Sam Cassell should be getting 13 minutes. None. It worked out this time around, but Boston’s resident ET has a tendency to kill any semblance of flow an offense manages to create. If he continues to get these kinds of minutes, Doc better be prepared for the fallout in the Boston media.

Lesson 3: Kobe Continues to Look for Teammates Early

Throughout the season and the playoffs, Kobe has been lauded for his willingness to involve teammates early in the game. I had some doubts that this would continue once the allure of the NBA crown was in sight. But if Game 1 is any indication, Kobe is content to involve his teammates early and look to take over late in the game. In Game 2, look for Kobe to ditch this strategy and come out of the gates strong with a solid first quarter. Kobe will not let his team leave Boston without a split.

Lesson 4: Defense Will Decide

This isn’t exactly a startling revelation. After all, how many times have we heard: “defense wins championships?” As tired as the cliché is, it probably was never more evident than in Game 1 of this series. Offensively, these two teams are pretty evenly matched. Defensively, the Celtics clearly outclass the Lakers. Defense is nothing more than a will to commit and right now, the Celtics have that will. Kobe is a world-class defender; I look for him to set the tone for the remainder of the series. In addition, don’t be surprised if Ronny Turiaf starts to get a slight increase in playing time due to the energy and defensive ability he brings to the floor. He might be the only player the Lakers have that can match the intensity and energy of Kevin Garnett.

Lesson 5: Lakers Will Win This Series

Bet you didn’t see that one coming did ya? With the Celtics winning Game 1, it wouldn’t seem logical to come away with the conclusion that the Lakers will win this series. But, the Lakers showed they are quite capable of winning a game in Boston. You can bet that Kobe will not score 24 points again in this series; in fact, I might even venture to say he won’t score fewer than 30. In addition, I don’t think we continue to see 15 a night out of Rondo. While the Celtics certainly took care of business on their home floor, they did not do enough to sway me from my original belief that the Lakers would win this series. That being said, Game 2 is a must win for LA.

The NBA Finals is a culmination of a painful 6 months as a Philadelphia sports fan. Beginning with the Eagles season fading away, followed by having to endure a Super Bowl with two of the teams I hate most in this world. Next up came watching the Sixers and Flyers have very respectable seasons, but also with the knowledge that they have not reached elite status just yet. Look out NHL, because the Flyguys are creeping up to elite next year. Which brings me to this point: Lakers vs Celtics. I may go on a steady diet of Vicodin and Heineken for the next couple weeks. Or just bang my head against a brick wall enough times to put me in a coma short term. Don’t get me wrong, I am extremely excited for this series. It’s just that in the NBA, these are the two teams I hate most. I’ve actually been openly praying for an NBA lockout to avoid having to watch one of these teams hoist the trophy. I have always hated the Celtics and the Lakers, however my level of hatred for the Lakers has reached a new level since moving to Los Angeles. With the stupid car flags and the damn purple jerseys floating around town wherever I go, I’m a ticking time bomb. I wonder if now that it’s the NBA Finals, those amazing Laker fans will be able to make it to the game by halftime. I know, I know. I am just complaining again. I promise I will get to the series in a minute since no one cares about my pain. One more thing, though. This is a message to all Lakers fans: KOBE WOULD NOT HAVE WON MVP AND YOU WOULD NOT BE IN LOVE WITH THE DUDE HAD CHRIS WALLACE (WITH THE HELP OF JERRY WEST I’M SURE) NOT GIFT WRAPPED PAU “ THE OSTRICH” GASOL. Whew. That felt amazing. On to the series now.

I was going to do my usual position by position breakdown, but I decided to just breakdown the series as if I was sitting with a buddy at a bar. Plus, I am tired and too lazy to do a full roster breakdown. Let me also say that if you’ve been reading my posts, I have been picking against the Lakers in every series except Denver, but as I type this, I have no idea which way I’m leaning. This is another series of interesting match-ups and storylines. There’s the obvious historical significance. Although, even though hearing Lakers and Celtics gets me excited (in a non sexual way), I do think it is over hyped. The Celtics have been away from the Finals for 21 years. Those teams in the 80’s were some of the best in NBA history. Neither of these two teams hold that distinction. We also have Phil Jackson going for a record 10^th NBA title as a coach. East coast against West coast. Purple against green. The legacies of many players can be altered. Excuse me, I need to take a Vicodin.

I’m very interested in seeing how both teams decide to play it defensively. Will the Celtics trust Perkins to guard Gasol one on one and Garnett guard Odom? Perkins certainly cannot handle Odom’s quickness. I am also curious to see how the Celtics decide to defend Kobe. Obviously, Kobe Bryant is by far the best player in this series and in the NBA, so they cannot expect to stop him. I think Kobe will see a variety of defenders. Probably some Paul Pierce, a little Ray Allen, and a lot of James Posey, as well as Kevin Garnett and Perkins popping out in order to try and force Kobe to beat them from the outside. The single greatest difference between the two teams is that the Lakers have a guy who has proven he can take over a playoff game in crunch time, and the Celtics do not. Paul Pierce did it once, but I would not call that a trend. The good thing for the Celtics is that they are the top defensive team in the NBA. The Lakers have not gone up against a defense like this. The Spurs play solid defense, but they are nowhere near as quick and athletic as the Celtics. The ideal scenario for the Celtics is to be able to swarm and rotate their defense and keep Kobe out of the paint. If they can force him to give up the basketball, and his teammates do not come through, then Kobe may revert back to selfish mode. To me, the only guy other than Kobe I would trust in crunch time is Derek Fisher. Problem is, there is only Paul Pierce on the Boston side. Speaking of Paul Pierce, how will the Lakers defend him? Neither Radmanovic or Luke Walton can do it. I think Kobe will be chasing around Ray Allen, so the Celtics have a decided advantage there.

The other question I have is: will Rajon Rondo completely crap the bed in the spotlight? Boston better hope not. Ray Allen is also going to be big here. He needs to knock down shots and if Kobe is guarding him, run Kobe as ragged as possible. If I was coaching Boston, my offensive strategy would be to use my big men as much as possible. Get the ball down low and try and get the Lakers frontcourt in early foul trouble because the backups for L.A. in the frontcourt do not stand a chance. The Celtics need to dominate the defensive boards, which I think will happen. There are definitely things that worry me like Kobe Bryant going crazy on Boston, Rondo crapping his pants, and Doc Rivers being the coach of the Celtics. All in all, I think this is going to be a great series with close games throughout. I see it going the distance, and as hard as it is to pick against Kobe Bryant in a game 7, I am going with…drum roll please…BOSTON IN 7.

That was a tough post for me to write. The Vicodin helped though. But, as a fan, I am looking forward to an exciting NBA Finals. So let’s get it started before Kevin Garnett eats someone.

We’re down to the Final Four in the NBA Playoffs.  As far as my picks, I have so far done well in the Eastern Conference, and not too well in the Western Conference (some of that due to my desire to see the Lakers go down).  Although I did say a couple weeks ago that I felt the Spurs would replace the Suns and go to the Finals.  I think we have two great match-ups here, so let’s break it all down.

Pistons vs Celtics

This is the match-up that has been expected pretty much since the beginning of the season.  You can throw the regular season games out the window.  The playoffs are here.  This should be an awesome series to watch.  It won’t always be pretty, but it will be physical, intense, and most likely come down to execution in the fourth quarter.  These are probably the two best defensive teams in the NBA.  What I love about this series is that these two teams do not like each other and it is filled with some great individual match-ups.  The Pistons are seasoned and rested.  They have been here before.  Many of the Celtics have not.  The Celtics have gone through two grueling seven game series, but have not faced the type of test they will get from the Pistons.  How will they respond?  Let’s look at the match-ups:

1)       Point Guard- If Chauncey Billups’ hamstring is healthy, then this is one sided.  Rajon Rondo has made strides in these playoffs and he hit some big shots against the Cavs, but he has not proven that he can do it consistently.  Chauncey?  Been there, done that.  With his size and strength advantage over Rondo, I look for the Pistons to use Billups in the post more often.  I am curious to see how Rondo reacts under the pressure of getting the Celtics back to the Finals.  I have a feeling he might look like a deer in headlights.

2)       Shooting Guard- I’ve always loved Rip.  Although the whole mask thing has dropped him a couple notches for me.  I remember seeing his Coatesville team go up against Kobe Bryant’s Lower Merion team back in high school.  Ray Allen has looked like he aged 40 years since the end of the regular season.  The Celtics need Allen to step up and they should make a conscious effort to run him off screens and get him in a rhythm early.  I think both these guys will have a good series.  With the great team defense played by both teams, no one will blow you away with their high field goal percentage.  I still give a slight advantage to the Pistons in this match-up.

3)       Small Forward- This is a great match-up.  For most of the Cavs series, I though Paul Pierce did a great job defending LeBron James.  His offense suffered because of it.  Until, of course, Game 7.  Pierce impressed the hell out of me, and it’s a good thing, too.  The player previously known as Ray Allen was not helping much, and KG certainly wasn’t going to carry the Celtics in a tight Game 7.  I look for Tayshaun Prince to play the role of Paul Pierce here.  Prince probably will not contribute much offensively, save a few threes, but his main focus will be on stopping Pierce.  We all know that Prince can defend anybody.  He has about a 94 foot wingspan.  Prince should do a great job on Pierce, putting more pressure on Garnett and Allen.  I still think Pierce will have a few games where he is just on.  So offensively, Pierce will certainly contribute more, but this is still a close one.  Slight edge to the Celtics.

4)       Power Forward- You are not going to find too many match-ups better than this one.  I could go on and on about it, but I wouldn’t do that to you.  Both are great defenders, and both are important offensively as well.  They probably will not spend the entire time guarding each other, but when they do it will be physical and fun.  Wallace has way more big game experience, but Garnett is hungry.  Maybe he will finally shake the reputation of not taking over big games when his team needs it.  I doubt it, but maybe.  Wallace will mix in his three point shooting, post moves, and great defense.  Same for Garnett, except his outside shooting will be a little closer to the basket.  Both guys are great competitors and I think both will play well.  I am sure I will get some crap for this but I see this one as a draw.  Garnett is great, but Wallace will be great at the exact moments his team needs him to be.  Will Garnett?

5)       Center- Both Kendrick Perkins and Antonio McDyess are responsible for doing the little things.  Defend, rebound, get easy put-backs, keeping plays alive.  McDyess does possess the ability to hit the open 14-18 footer.  I don’t see any clear edge in this match-up.  I’ll call this a draw.

6)       Bench- Detroit and Boston have excellent benches.  Typically, teams do not get this far in the playoffs with weak benches.  Bench play usually just comes down to who is going to step up from game to game and make an imprint.  There are plenty of guys capable on both sides.  Even Sam “The Alien” Cassell.  Guys like Posey, Powe, and House for the Celtics, and Hunter, Maxiell, and Stuckey, will go far in determining who comes out on top in this grudge match. If fouls become an issue, the benches will have an even greater impact.  It’s hard to really call a favorite here.  We’ll see how they react once the pressure is on.I have already written that I think the Pistons win in seven.  I actually think it could be six, but I will stick with seven.  Yes, seven.  The Pistons can win on the road.  There’s a novel idea!  I think it is important for the Pistons to win game 1 and put the pressure on Boston.  Either way, this is going to be closely contested, physical, and fun to watch.

Spurs vs Lakers

Everybody at this point knows what I want to see happen.  Especially so that I do not have to pay out some bets that I made with friends of mine who are Lakers fans.  I previously picked the Suns to be here, and then, using a mulligan, said that the Spurs would be here.  I was hoping the Jazz would take the Lakers out, but that turned out to be wishful thinking.  Now, I worry that with Kobe Bryant able to smell the Finals, it’s too late to stop the Lakers.  Ahhh… But of course, they are playing the defending world champions.  A team that already has 4 rings to boast about.  Will the Spurs end my misery of watching the Lakers cruise to the NBA Finals?  Man, I hope so.  This promises to be another hard fought, tightly contested series.

1)       Point Guard- The more I watch Derek Fisher, the more respect I gain for him.  He plays hard and physical defense.  He almost never misses an open jumper.  He hits clutch shots in almost every game.  His counterpart, Tony Parker, is one of the fastest and quickest players in the NBA.  Not an easy match-up for Fisher.  Parker will try to get in the lane and set up easy baskets for teammates as well as run the break when it is open.  I will give a slight edge to Parker in this battle.

2)       Shooting Guard- The interesting thing in this series is the defensive match-ups.  Ginobili will not be guarding Kobe.  Bruce Bowen and Kobe Bryant will renew their long lasting love fest.  I don’t think I even need to go into either Manu or Kobe’s credentials at this point.  They are both great. Kobe, of course, is all time great.  What is great about this series is that it is filled with players that will step up in the clutch.  I am not enough of a hater to give the edge to the Spurs here.  Edge to the Lakers.

3)       Small Forward- Bruce Bowen’s main job will be to try and slow down, frustrate, elbow, scratch, kick and do whatever else is necessary to Kobe Bryant.  He will find himself open for the corner three from time to time, and he needs to knock those down.  Lamar Odom almost always poses match-up problems with his ability to handle and shoot.  Again, I reiterate that match-ups will be key in this series.  Both team will be moving different defenders around, so it’s hard to talk about head to head, but I give the edge to Odom and the Lakers here.

4)       Power Forward- The Lakers have absolutely no one that can guard Tim Duncan, so I look for a huge series from him.  I’m sure Phil Jackson will throw double teams and different bodies at Duncan, but Gasol, or Turiaf, and whoever else do not stand a chance.  Radmanovic is mainly just an outside shooter and to be effective and even have an impact he must hit shots.  Huge edge to the Spurs.

5)       Center- Oberto is another dirty work guy.  Gasol is another case of a guy who will create match-up problems for the Spurs.  He can inside and out with great efficiency.  What bothers me about Gasol is that he’s so soft.  That being said he and the Lakers have a huge advantage here.

6)       Bench- Both teams have great benches, but I do think that the Lakers have a younger and fresher bench.  It seems that everyone that comes off the bench of both team has the ability to play well and hit shots.  The Spurs bench is experienced, and it remains to be seen how the Lakers bench will perform as the series rolls on.  I call this one even. There are so many great match-ups and players in this series that you just know its going to be great.  Two great coaches involved in a chess match.  The Spurs have the experience, but they might have tired legs.  The Lakers have Kobe Bryant.  This is a tough one to call, and it will come down to defense and execution.  I just feel that at the end of the day, the Spurs have enough in them to take down the Lakers in seven.  Again, the Spurs need to steal one of the first two, or else Kobe will smell blood and drop 50 in San Antonio to put the Spurs against the wall.

I don’t care what anybody says about the Spurs being boring and all that crap.  Both these series are going to be entertaining and great for the NBA.  These are the four teams that should be here.  It will be a great couple weeks in the NBA, and I can’t wait to see how it plays out.  Let’s all kick back and enjoy the games.

The first round of the NBA playoffs has provided a plethora of lessons learned and plenty of intrigue.

The two series that most proclaimed experts felt would be the least competitive in the Eastern Conference turned out to provide the most hotly-contested series in the Eastern Conference thus far. Both the Sixers and Hawks were written off as mere bystanders on the path to a Celtics/Pistons clash. But those experts forgot to tell the Sixers and Hawks, because they put up a fight that just may have provided a glimpse into the future of the Eastern Conference.

Sure, the Pistons and Celtics will likely have their inevitable showdown to determine Eastern Conference supremacy. But both of those teams have a veteran core whose window is rapidly closing with each passing day. On the other hand, the Sixers and Hawks are following a similar model: a young athletic core paired with an established, veteran point guard to direct the troops. Sound familiar? It should. This is a model the Detriot Pistons have been using for years. In Chauncey Billups, the team has a solid veteran presence at point guard coupled with versatility at the remaining four starting positions. Lump all of that together with a tough-minded approach to defense and you just might have concocted a GM’s cocktail for championships. Goes down smooth huh? Both the Sixers and Hawks are a couple of pieces and years away from seriously contending for a championship. But the current playoffs may have provided a glimpse into the future of the Eastern Conference–a world where the Sixers and Hawks reign supreme.

And now, on to the lessons learned:

• Predictions Schmedictions: Chief among those lessons was that predictions are not my forte. Already, my Western conference champion has fallen victim to a team that simply understands how to win playoff basketball–the San Antonio Spurs. I still have a chance at my other prediction, albeit a bit of a cop out, that the Spurs come out of the West. I felt that the winner of that series would prevail in the conference, so at least that one is still alive (not looking too promising either). While the Spurs have looked old thus far, I won’t count out Tim Duncan and the gang until they are beaten on their own court.
• Don’t overemphasize the value of experience: In some circumstances (see San Antonio Spurs) playoff experience equates to playoff success. Because of this, we have a tendency to place too much value on the ability of a veteran team to win a playoff series based solely on the fact that it has fought more battles than its opponent. I was a victim of this trap when I thought the savvy and physicality of the Mavericks would wear down the Hornets and Chris Paul. In reality, Chris Paul was so much better than any player on the courtthat he single-handedly propelled that team to victory.
• The Nuggets are who we thought they were:In the infamous words of Denny Green, The Nuggest “are who we thought they were.” I’m pretty sure I could drop 30 on that defense. So while the Lakers won convincingly, I’ll jump on the bandwagon when they beat a team that actually believes in the concept of defense.
• Celtics Lack Go-to Guy: All season long the media trumpeted the success and harmony of the Big Three. And while the success in the season is all well and good, it all amounts to nothing if you can’t get it done in the playoffs. The problem with this Celtics team is it lacks a scorer that is willing to step up and get it done in the clutch. Garnett refuses to attack the basket and becomes a passive participant in the game come crunch time , Ray Allen has trouble creating his own shot and Paul Pierce does not have enough proven late-game ability to solidify his position as a go-to-guy. All season, these three have coexisted as equal parts of the greater whole–now that it is playoff time, one of them needs to step up and become the most important cog in the wheel.
• Dwight Howard is a Monster: We knew that Howard likes to pose as Superman, but I’m not sure many of us believed he actually had the ability to leap tall defenders in a single bound. Once Howard refines his offensive game to include a bit of finesse as opposed to pure power, he will be near impossible to stop. Not since a certain 7 foot 300-pound big man donned an Orlando Magic jersey have we seen a big man with this much upside.