With the college basketball season winding down, I thought it would be a good time to take a look at the Big Five (+1) teams. I wanted to look at where the teams currently stand, what the end of the regular season has in store for them, tournament chances/predictions, and the state of the programs moving forward.
VILLANOVA WILDCATS (21-5 Overall, 9-4 Big East, 4-0 Big 5)
Jay Wright’s boys are the unquestioned best team in Philly. They went undefeated against their four rivals, and sit at 9-4 in arguably the best conference in the country. The Wildcats are ranked #14 in the country and are #10 in RPI. Their NCAA tournament bid is a lock. The only question remains their seeding. Right now they would likely get a # 3 or 4 seed. Of course, a lot can change between now and Selection Sunday. It is entirely possible for ‘Nova to run the table in their remaining 5 games. They have tough road games at Syracuse and ND, but both those teams are not playing their best basketball, home games against Georgetown and Providence, and a road game at Depaul. Not easy by any stretch, but all games that ‘Nova should be favored to win. After that, there is the grueling Big East Tournament. A top four conference ranking will earn ‘Nova a 2 round bye, at worst they should get a 1 round bye. The Wildcats are playing their best basketball right now, which is exactly how it’s scripted in a perfect world. Usually, guard play is paramount in the NCAA Tournament, and ‘Nova certainly excels in that area. Dante Cunningham gives them a low post presence, and they have a very good trapping style defense. In order to go far, the Cats will need Cunningham to stay out of foul trouble, and get better contributions from guys like Pena and Clark. ‘Nova is very beatable when they do not shoot well from the outside, so that can always become an issue. It’s tough without seeing a bracket to make a true prediction, but this team is capable of making a Final Four run. More likely, though, would be a visit to Sweet 16 and very possibly the Elite 8.
This program has officially arrived. Jay Wright has been able to build a perennial Big East contender and has attracted top notch talent to the Main Line. The guy can coach and he sure as hell can recruit. ‘Nova will lose Cunningham, Anderson, and Clark. All of them made nice contributions, with the biggest obviously being Cunningham. So, they will have to replace size. Antonio Pena has been improving steadily and will have a more prominent role next year. The guards are in great shape with Reynolds, Fisher, Redding, and Stokes all returning. But wait, it gets better for ‘Nova. Jay Wright has compiled one of the top recruiting classes for 2009. Being added to the mix are Dominic Cheek (no LOI yet), and Roman’s Maalik Wayns, as well Isaiah Armwood and Mouphtauo Yarou, who will both add some size to ‘Nova. All four are ranked among the top 50 players in the country according to scout.com. Not to mention, Villanova already has a verbal commitment from James bell, the 10th ranked SF in the country for the class of 2010. The future is looking pretty bright for Villanova and their fans.
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TEMPLE OWLS (16-9 Overall, 8-3 Atlantic 10, 3-1 Big 5)
Fran Dunphy has done a great job this year with Temple. The Owls have a chance to win the Atlantic 10 regular season title, sitting one game behind Dayton at the moment. Currently, Temple has an RPI of 36, which is pretty strong. They are certainly classified right now as a bubble team. They have a couple nice wins against Penn St. and Tennessee, but they could use another signature win. The Owls have 5 games remaining, and they are not the type of team who can just show up and win, so they will all be tough, but winnable games. They have games against St. Bonaventure, LaSalle, St. Joe’s, GW, and a huge game at Dayton. A win at Dayton would go a long way towards securing an NCAA tournament berth for the Owls. Of course, they could always just win the A10 tourney and make it a moot point. The Owls are led by Dionte Christmas and Lavoy Allen. They won’t go anywhere without stellar play from those two. Christmas relies heavily on his outside shot, which can cause problems for Temple if he is well defended or having an off shooting day. My prediction is that the Owls pull off the upset of Dayton and reach the NCAA’s, where they will likely be a #12 or 13 seed. My guess would be a one and done this year for the Owls, but stranger things have happened.
Temple is facing the daunting task of replacing Christmas next year. The Owls are losing their top scorer (Christmas), their center (Olmos), along with Inge, who is a very solid contributor. Total those losses up and they need to find a way to replace 34.5 ppoints, 13.3 boards, and 7.2 assists. Lavoy Allen has the ability to be a star for the Owls. He has improved in his sophomore season, but next year’s team will likely be Allen’s team. There are some bright spots looking forward to next season for Temple. Juan Fernandez has been getting better and better since he joined the team. Fernandez along with Ryan Brooks, should give Temple a very solid backcourt next year. Temple has signed a couple local kids in Khalif Wyatt (Norristown), and Rahlir Jefferson (Chester). It’s tough to say what kind of year the Owls will have next year. I think they will be pretty good depending on how improved Fernandez is next year and how high Allen raises his level of play.
ST. JOSEPH’S HAWKS (14-11 Overall, 7-4 Atlantic 10, 1-3 Big 5)
The Hawks have had an up and down year under Phil Martelli. They are currently on a 3 game losing streak that has dropped them to 5th place in the A10. Not exactly the way you want to finish a season. Their RPI currently sits at 80, and they have no real good wins on their resume. Without winning the A10 tourney, it’s pretty safe to say that the Hawks will not be going dancing. An NIT bid is much more likely for St. Joe’s. The Hawks are not a deep team at all and about 95% of their scoring comes from 4 players. They are led by Ahmad Nivins in both scoring and rebounding. They have 5 games remaining, and like I said, they would have to win the A10 tourney in order to make the big dance. Is it impossible? Absolutely not. This team has the ability to beat any team in their conference. Of course, they will need huge numbers from Nivins, Govens, and Carr. If Nivins gets in any foul trouble, this team is cooked. They don’t have the talent to win without Nivins on the floor for most of the game. Unfortunately, my prediction is that the Hawks will not go anywhere but the NIT. This is not the year for St. Joe’s fans to rejoice.
Losing Nivins and Carr is definitely going to hurt the Hawks. Govens, Hilliard, and Williamson will need to take control and lead this team. The Hawks are very young, with 5 freshmen on the roster this year. Moving forward, the young guys will need to step up, and with very little playing time, it is hard to say how productive they will be in the future. In addition, Martelli has been able to land what looks to be a fairly solid recruiting clas. They have size with David Bruce and Carl Baptiste. Baptiste specifically is 6’8”, 240 pounds with a very good shooting touch. According to ESPN, he should be a starter by his junior year. They will also be adding the #22 ranked PG in the country in Carl Jones. Jones is said to be small and extremely quick with a good shot. It looks like he will be an exciting player to watch in the future. He was highly thought of enough to be recruited by the likes of Marquette, Xavier, Providence, and USC. Pretty good find by Martelli on this kid. I think next year could be a struggle for the Hawks, but I doubt it will be too long before Martelli has them back at the top of the A10.
La SALLE EXPLORERS (14-11 Overall, 5-6 Atlantic 10, 2-2 Big 5)
I have to give the Explorers and coach John Giannini a lot of credit. Yeah, I said it! It has been an inconsistent year for LaSalle, filled with quite a few close losses. They have lost two overtime games and another 3 games by a total of 11 points. This is a team on the rise in my opinion. They will not be playing in the NCAA tournament this year, and may not even be invited to the NIT, although I think they should. An RPI of 110 and below .500 record in the A10 will do that to you. The Explorers have balanced scoring ( 4 players average in double figues), and they have some pretty good size and athleticism. This team needs to take that next step and believe that they can win the close games and they will be fine.
Now, I have some really good news for Explorer fans, and a bold prediction. In my opinion, the next couple years are looking really good for LaSalle. It is hard for a school like LaSalle to remain successful for extremely long stretches of time, but that doesn’t mean they can’t have their moment in the sun, too. The top 6 scorers from this year’s team will be returning. It will be a senior led bunch of guys. That doesn’t mean they don’t have any young talent, though. Jerrell Williams should continue to improve as a player, and then there is LaSalle’s best recruit in a very long time. Aaric Murray of Glen Mills, one of the top centers in the country will be heading to LaSalle. That is huge for them. This kid has a chance to be special. He is highly ranked, yet he hasn’t even been playing basketball for 4 years. So, with all this being said, my prediction is that LaSalle finishes in the top 2 in the A10 nest year, as well as spending at least a little time in the top 25. It’s been awhile, but I think it could happen if they can take that next big step as a team.
PENN QUAKERS (8-13 Overall, 4-3 Ivy League, 0-4 Big 5)
It is not easy to be a college basketball coach in the Ivy League. Well, that’s obviously what Penn coach Glen Miller is. It seems the days of Ivy League teams, like the Pete Carrill coached Princeton teams, and the Fran Dunphy coached Penn teams, competing against the big boys are gone. Oh, one of them will win the league and make it as a #15 seed, but that’s about it. Penn has an outside shot to catch Cornell for the league title this year, but they would need a lot of help. They currently sit at 4-3, and that’s only after the 3 game winning streak they are riding. The Quakers only have one player (Tyler Bernardini) averaging in double figures. Penn has been playing better basketball of late, and the good news is that they still play every team ahead of them in the standings once. I personally just don’t think they have enough to get it done.
The good news for Penn is that they are extremely young, so they should improve over the next couple years. That improvement may be enough to put them back into the NCAA tournament. Of Penn’s 5 leading scorers, 3 are sophomores, and 1 is a freshmen, so that bodes well for the Quakers in the next couple years. Penn also has a couple recruits coming in that are regarded as pretty talented for Ivy League players. My guess is that it won’t be long before the Penn Quakers are back atop the Ivy League.
DREXEL DRAGONS (14-11 Overall, 10-6 CAA, 2-0 in games against Big 5 schools)
I figured even though they aren’t part of the Big 5, I would briefly examine Drexel. The (+1) of the Big 5 in Philly. Poor Drexel…Always on the outside looking in. Although they did beat both St. Joe’s and Penn head to head. The Dragons are right in the thick of a jumbled CAA pack. They definitely have a chance to make the big dance if they can win their conference tourney. My guess is they will make a run at it, but fall short. Bruiser Flint’s guys play hard, but it likely won’t be enough.
Moving forward, the Dragons will lose Rodgers, Hawthorne and most of their top scorers. As far as recruiting is concerned, Drexel still does not have any signed letters of intent, so it’s tough to say what the team will look like next year. The Dragons will likely be led by Givens, Colds, and Neisler, and look to those guys to step up and account for the losses to graduation.
For the most part it looks like most of the Big 5 is in pretty good shape now and moving forward. Either way, the Big 5 is one of the greatest traditions in college basketball. If you haven’t been to the Palestra to catch a Big 5 game, you are missing out.
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