Heard in the Cheap Seats

Opening Day- Those are two of the favorite words of any baseball fan.  In case you haven’t heard, the Phillies begin their defense of the World Championship tonight against the Braves.  Hearing the phrase “defending World Champions” will not get old no matter how many times it is uttered throughout the season.  So, I wanted to make sure I got my picks out for all to see and make fun of before the season kicks off.  I made my picks for the NL East and then conducted an experiment which you will see in this post.  The experiment was to see if my actual picks matched up with a silly formula I used for fun.  When I was a kid, I used to take my baseball cards and lay them out on the floor and play a game.  The game was to take two players and have them face off against each other based on each statistical category.  The player received one point for each category won, and the most points won and moved on.  I did this on rainy days so I don’t want to hear that I had no life.  Using that as a model, I took the NL East and ranked each position, starting pitching, bullpen, and bench from one to five.  Now, obviously this is just my opinion and can be debated back and forth at every position.  The team with least amount of points finished first, and so on.  It actually turned out exactly how my picks were before I conducted the experiment.  It will all make sense once you see it.  I didn’t go into intangibles and managers and all the other stuff that will play out during the season, I just thought it was interesting to see how it played out when you just look at the teams player by player.  Due to time constraints, I am not going to go into great detail on my rankings.  At the end of the post I will also reveal my picks for the other divisions that no one cares much about.  So, without further ado…

 

CATCHER

1)       Braves- McCann

2)       Phils- Ruiz

3)       Marlins- Baker

4)       Mets- Schneider

5)       Nationals- Flores

I don’t think there is much of a debate that McCann is the best of the bunch here.  He is by far the best hitting catcher out of the group and a perennial All Star.  I gave Ruiz the nod for the number two spot due to the fact that he played so well in the playoffs and the fact that the rest of the catchers are not overly strong.  Ruiz handles a pitching staff as good as any catcher as well.

 

FIRST BASE

1)       Phils- Howard

2)       Mets- Delgado

3)       Marlins- Cantu

4)       Braves- Kotchman

5)       Nationals- Johnson

It was a pretty easy pick to put Howard at the front of this group.  Just look at his numbers.  He is one of, if not the best power hitter in the game today.  Delgado is a proven veteran power hitter and had a great second half last year.  Cantu has been moved from third to first and can put up nice power numbers for the Marlins, but Howard is by far the class of this group.

 

SECOND BASE

1)       Phils- Utley

2)       Marlins- Uggla

3)       Braves- Johnson

4)       Mets- Castillo

5)       Nationals- Belliard

Another easy choice, in my opinion, because Utley has skills that no other second baseman have.  Add to that the fact that Utley is as hard nosed of a ball player as you are ever going to find and he is clearly the best here.  Uggla is powerful and a good run producer for a second baseman.  Kelly Johnson is a nice player, but not great, and Castillo is on the down side of his career.  Belliard will platoon, and it is a pattern that the Nationals are far inferior at most positions.

 

THIRD BASE

1)       Mets- Wright

2)       Braves- Jones

3)       Nationals- Zimmerman

4)       Phils- Feliz

5)       Marlins- Bonifacio

I know Phillies hate to admit, but David Wright is an MVP candidate and the class of this group.  He may commit a lot of errors, but he is still an excellent fielding third baseman to go along with his powerful bat.  Chipper Jones is a future Hall of Famer coming of a batting title.  His only problem is staying on the field.  I think Zimmerman is a very solid player on a crappy team.  Pedro Feliz is a decent player, but he is nowhere near the caliber of Jones or Wright.  Bonifacio is a bit of a wild card here because he is unproven, but he could end up being an excellent player.

 

SHORTSTOP

1)       Marlins- Ramirez

2)       Phils- Rollins

3)       Mets- Reyes

4)       Braves- Escobar

5)       Nationals- Guzman

As much as I love Jimmy Rollins, I had to give a slight edge to Hanley Ramirez.  This is the deepest position in the division, with 3 MVP type players.  I just think Ramirez is just a hair better than Jimmy Rollins at the plate and only getting better.  Reyes is one of the best table setters in the league and when he gets on base, the Mets usually win.

 

LEFT FIELD

1)       Phils- Ibanez

2)       Nationals- Dunn

3)       Marlins- Hermida

4)       Braves- Anderson

5)       Mets- Murphy

This is not a very strong position for the division.  Ibanez is easily the most consistent offensive producer.  As far as defense goes, well, left field is usually where the worst fielding outfielder plays on most teams.  I gave Dunn the nod for second place here due to his on base percentage that he consistently produces as well as his power.  Hermida has some pop, and Murphy may end up giving way to Church if the Mets move Sheffield into the starting right field position or they could keep Church in right and put Sheff in left.  That would likely at least move the Mets up one spot in the rankings.

 

CENTER FIELD

1)       Mets- Beltran

2)       Phils- Victorino

3)       Nationals- Milledge

4)       Marlins- Maybin

5)       Braves- Schafer

Continuing a bit of a theme in this division, the outfield spots are not very strong.  The Phillies and Mets easily have the two best outfields in the East.  I gave first to Beltran by a nose.  Victorino and Beltran are both superb fielders.  Victorino has more speed, but Beltran is a far better run producer.  The other three a largely unproven in the big leagues.

 

RIGHT FIELD

1)       Phils- Werth

2)       Mets- Church

3)       Marlins- Ross

4)       Braves- Francouer

5)       Nationals- Kearns

Again not too eye popping in right field, so the nod goes to Werth for his defense as well as the solid year he had last year.  Church or Sheffield are a close second, and Ross is a decent player in right for the Marlins.  Francouer has the ability, but is coming off a terrible year.

 

STARTING PITCHING

1)       Marlins

2)       Mets

3)       Phils

4)       Braves

5)       Nationals

This was a tough call so don’t jump down my throat.  You can throw out the Nats because their rotation is awful.  I think any of the other four could flip flop positions easily.  I just feel the Marlins have the deepest staff led by Johnson and Nolasco.  They are all young and getting better and better.  The Phils and Mets have solid but unimpressive rotations and the Braves are much improved.

 

BULLPEN

1)       Phils

2)       Mets

3)       Braves

4)       Marlins

5)       Nationals

The Phils and Mets have strong bullpens, especially at the back end, but I believe that the Phillies have a bit more depth throughout especially when Romero returns.  Even though the Mets bolstered their pen by adding Putz and Rodriguez, people forget that the Phils have Lidge and Madsen.  The Braves have the makings of a solid pen if they remain healthy.

 

BENCH

1)       Mets

2)       Braves

3)       Phils

4)       Marlins

5)       Nationals

The Mets have a solid bench with quite a few proven veterans like Sheffield, Tatis, and Cora.  I think the Braves have some nice players with some offensive ability on their bench.  The Phillies bench is a bit suspect, and the Marlins and Nats are weak off the bench.

 

TOTALS

1)       Phils-21

2)       Mets-27

3)       Marlins-33

4)       Braves-36

5)       Nationals- 48

So, there you have it.  The rankings matched up with my actual picks.  I think it is a solid division and I believe the Phils will repeat.  Of course, injuries, trades, and a million other things can affect all of this, but I believe what this little experiment says is the Phillies have the best roster top to bottom.  Time to PLAY BALL!!!

 

PICKS FOR THE REST

 

NL CENTRAL

1)       Cubs

2)       Cardinals

3)       Reds

4)       Brewers

5)       Astros

6)       Pirates

 

NL WEST

1)       Dodgers

2)       Giants

3)       Diamondbacks

4)       Rockies

5)       Padres

 

AL EAST

1)       Red Sox

2)       Yankees

3)       Rays

4)       Blue Jays

5)       Orioles

 

AL CENTRAL

1)       Indians

2)       Tigers

3)       White Sox

4)       Twins

5)       Royals

 

AL WEST

1)       A’s

2)       Angels

3)       Rangers

4)       Mariners

With spring training right around the corner, I thought now was as good a time as any to throw out some predictions on the upcoming season. For the next few weeks, I will take each division one by one and provide an analysis of how I think things will shake out.

For the first installment, let’s take a look at the NL East. Full disclosure: I am a Braves fan.

The NL East promises to be a hotly-contested division. Every year we seem to speculate that the NL East rivals will beat up on each other so much during the season that only one team will come out of the division. With the Mets adding Johan Santana, the Braves having a quietly productive offseason and the Phillies addressing some critical flaws, this is certainly a three-horse race at the moment.

Prediction:

Maybe I am just talking myself into it, but I honestly believe the Braves will win the division this year with the Mets finishing a close second. I think the Mets lineup has some serious flaws and while the addition of Santana will pay dividends, it is important to remember he only pitches every five games. The Braves biggest flaw is currently in center field and it is only minor at that. The Phillies have a solid team, but I think the loss of Aaron Rowand will take its toll on the team. Rowand was the heart and soul of that team.

In the end, the Braves rotation depth will prevail and they will win the division with a 3 game lead on the Mets at season end. I’ll provide analysis following the standings.

Final Standings:

1.) Atlanta Braves: 95-67

2.) New York Mets: 92-70

3.) Philadelphia Phillies: 87-75

4.) Florida Marlins: 78-84

5.) Washington Nationals: 70-92

The Contenders:

Philadelphia Phillies:

Going into the offseason, the Phils biggest need was adding rotation depth. The team has failed to address that weakness thus far through free agency, though there has been speculation that the team is interested in Kris Benson. That being said, the team essentially added a frontline starter with the move of Brett Myers to the starting rotation. The combination of Cole Hamels and Myers at the top of the rotation stacks up well against the one-two punches of the Mets and Braves. After that, the rotation gets a bit dodgy. The Phillies do have one of the best lineups in the National League. Jimmy Rollins will be hard-pressed to replicate his MVP season, but he will produce a solid season. Chase Utley is a perennial MVP candidate, along with Ryan Howard. I think the Geoff Jenkins signing was a mistake and he will quickly fall into disfavor with the brutal fans of Philadelphia. Adding Pedro Feliz as the third baseman will prove to be a nice pick up for the team that had serious issues at the position last season. From a bullpen stand point, the Phils shrewdly added Brad Lidge. Mark my words: Lidge will be good for 35 saves this year at a minimum. Top to bottom, the bullpen should prove to be a formidable unit.

Atlanta Braves:

The Braves offseason was wrought with questions about rotation depth and the void left in center field by the departure of Andruw Jones. And let’s not underestimate the impact of long-time Braves GM John Schuerholz. But despite that, I believe the Braves had an extremely productive offseaon.

The addition of Tom Glavine adds much needed rotation depth. Say what you will about the veteran left-hander, but he still knows how to eat innings and win ballgames—a quality hard to find in number three starters. John Smoltz is still a frontline starter and Tim Hudson will be in the Cy Young discussion this year. If Mike Hampton can stay healthy, the Braves may be armed with the best rotation from top to bottom in the NL East. The Braves lineup is also extremely solid without a major weakness outside of lack of speed. Mark Kotsay, if healthy, will be a capable addition to the Braves lineup. But I have a hunch we may be seeing Jordan Schafer a bit earlier than expected. Mark Texeria for a full season will provide Chipper Jones with some much-needed protection Andruw Jones was unable to provide. The bullpen has some question marks. Rafel Soriano has ability to serve as a top-shelf closer, but he needs to avoid some of the tough stretches that plagued him last season.

The New York Mets:

The Mets offseaon was about one thing—adding an ace to the rotation. Up until a few days ago, it didn’t look like they would be able to get that done. But when Omar Minaya swooped in and snagged Johan Santanna, the Mets immediately changed the prospects of the upcoming season. The rotation went from suspect to solid. The Mets lineup still remains solid, but is not on par with either the Phillies or the Braves. Carlos Delgado is not what he once was, and Louis Castillo is severely overrated. In the outfield, Moises Alou will not put up the gaudy numbers of last season. In the bullpen, the Mets are in good shape, with Billy Wagner once again providing stability at the close spot.

The Pretenders:

The Florida Marlins and Washington Nationals simply cannot compete for the league crown this year. The Marlins have some outstanding young talent across the board, but the team cannot hope to go toe-to-toe with the big guns of this division. If the team can somehow find a way to hang on to the likes of Hanley Ramierez, Dan Uggla, Josh Willingham and Sirgeo Mitre, despite budget concerns, it can be competive in relatively short order.

The Nationals are a different story all together. The team is weak in just about every area, and may be staring a 90 loss season in the face.