Heard in the Cheap Seats

The Philadelphia Eagles rumor mill continues to swirl at break neck pace. Just as soon as it looked the Eagles might pull of a trade for future Hall-of-Famer Tony Gonzalez it appears the disgruntled TE has been traded to the Atlanta Falcons for a 2010 second-round pick (according to Jay Glazer).

It has been thought all along that the Eagles would not be willing to pony up a second round pick for the 33-year old TE. Apparently, the Falcons finally bent to the will of the Chiefs and provided the pick Scott Pioli desired.

Gonzo would have looked great in midnight green but the asking price was too steep for the Eagles front office.

A little over two weeks ago I wrote a post imploring Eagles fans to stop with the talk that the Eagles should entertain the possibility of trading Donovan McNabb for Jay Cutler.  I was certain that my opinion was part of the silent majority and the talking heads of Philadelphia sports were merely representative of the vocal minority.  Boy was I wrong.

The comments that ensued on that post called me an idiot, asinine, 100% incorrect and stupid.  As you can tell, my readers always agree with my opinion.  And when word came that Cutler was indeed on the block, the comments were reinvigorated.  Again, the majority of those comments were in favor of taking a chance on Cutler.  It never ceases to amaze me the vigor with which some Philadelphia fans want to run McNabb out of town.  At every apparent opportunity, the mob is lined up ready to run the guy out of the town.

Well, sorry folks, but Jay Cutler has been traded to the Chicago Bears for Kyle Orton and two first-round picks.  He’s going to a team with a solid defense and no wide receivers to speak of on the roster.  He will regret his trade demands by week 4.  Write it down: Jay Cutler does not even approach his 2008 numbers.

There was never really a doubt, but for those that held out hope…can we stop now?  Donovan McNabb is our quarterback.  Let’s move on.

There has been some chatter over the last couple of days that Buffalo Bills left tackle Jason Peters could be available via a trade if the Bills cannot work out a contract.  Of course, because the Eagles currently do not have a LT on the roster (not counting Todd Heramanns or possibly Shawn Andrews) they have been rumored as one of the teams that could get involved in the bidding. 

Granted, much of this is speculation at the moment, but it bears some closer consideration as to whether or not Peters would actually be an upgrade over the Birds current options. 

Jason Peters is an undeniable talent.  At 6’4”, 340 pounds, he certainly does not lack the size to play the position.  In 2007, Peters dominated opposing defensive ends and catapulted himself to elite status at the position.  In his eyes, this earned him the right to be paid as one of the top left tackled in the game.  But the Bills would not oblige.  After a lengthy holdout, Peters returned to action but never quite displayed the same level of dominance as he had in 2007.  In fact, Peters was so shoddy in 2008 that he led the league in sacks allowed with 11.5.  That is a startling number that would make even Winston Justice cringe.  Despite those meager stats, Peters still earned a Pro Bowl invite largely on reputation only.

Of course, you do have to take that 11.5 number with a grain of salt.  For starters, sacks allowed is a rather arbitrary measure of an OLs production.  The guy in the booth responsible for stat keeping has the sole discretion on where to place blame.  Not to start conspiracy theories, but wouldn’t the Bills stand to benefit from deflating Peters’ stats to gain an edge at the negotiating table?  And even if that is not the case, the stat also hinges greatly on the play of the quarterback.  A quarterback like Peyton Manning that gets rid of the ball quickly can make any offensive lineman look good.  But when you are hesitant to make decisions like Trent Edwards, he often leave your linemen out to dry.  But no matter how you spin the story, it is fairly obvious to even the most casual observer that Jason Peters was not at his best in 2008. 

If you are the Eagles, would you be so eager to fork over the number of picks and pile of cash it would take to bring Peters to Philadelphia?  It depends.  If you believe that you are getting the 2007 version of the massive lineman, it just may be worth the steep price.  Acquiring a productive Peters would create one of the biggest and most feared offensive lines in the game.  With a line like that, Andy Reid just may stick to the running game.

On the flip side, if you get anything back remotely resembling the 2008 version of Peters it would not be worth the king’s ransom required to get a deal done.  The Eagles have two viable internal options to move to left tackle in Shawn Andrews and Todd Herremans.  Let us not forget that both Andrews and Herremans played tackle in college and have apparently been itching to play it in the NFL.  Surely both of these options could match the play of Jason Peters cica 2008.  In addition, the Eagles would have to strongly way the apparent “attidue factor.”  This team has a long history of run-ins with players that wanted to rework deals before it expired.  In most cases, those clashes do not end well for the player.  Who is to say the three years down the road, Peters isn’t going to look around and call for another deal? 

The chatter has largely been that Jason Peters would be a huge upgrade for the Birds and a move they need to make if the price is right.  I’m not so sure.  There are just too many risks in the equation that outweigh the potential return.  If I were Andy Reid and his cohorts, I would take my chances with the guys already sitting in the locker room.

Jay Cutler:

The talking heads of the Philadelphia sports world have been tossing around the idea of the Eagles pursuing disgruntled Broncos QB Jay Cutler.  As a result, there have been more than a few Eagles fans that have followed with that line of thinking.  I have one word for you. STOP.

Jay Cutler has not proved anything in the NFL yet.  Sure, he is a talented 26-year old quarterback that has been to the Pro Bowl.  And yes, he threw for an other worldly 4,526 passing yards this past season.  But he is also a quarterback that threw 18 interceptions last season and has never won a playoff contest.  The only thing that Cutler has over McNabb is the fact that he is 6 years younger than him.  So for all of the fans calling for a trade I ask: do you really want to pay the steep price it would cost to get a QB that will not improve this team?  Didn”t think so. 

Every time there appears to be an opening to run McNabb out of town too many Eagles fans jump on the bandwagon.  Oh how soon they forget 3-13.

Matt Jones:

It’’s kind of strange that I constantly hammer home the idea that the Eagles are not barren at the WR position yet I continue to post about WRs on the market.  Here goes a few more thoughts on the position.

The Jaguars today released troubled WR Matt Jones.  At 6”6″ and 219 pounds, Jones is exactly the type of receiver that could help the Eagles overcome their red zone woes.  But is he worth the trouble?  As a player, Jones seemed to blossom last year, hauling in 65 grabs for 761 yards in only 12 games.  Expand that out over 16 games and you are looking at about 86 receptions for close to 1110 yards.  Not bad huh?

Jones is a very talented WR that can”t seem to keep himself out of trouble.  He is exactly the type of player the Eagles tend to shy away from.  But with 2010 possibly being an uncapped year, they could sign Jones for short money on a one-year deal.  He may just be worth the risk. 

Leonard Weaver:

Rumor has it that the Philadelphia Eagles may be out of the running for the services of Leonard Weaver.  I called for the Eagles to evaluate Weaver a month ago, so I clearly think he would make for a solid addition to this club.  However, from what I have read, it sounds like Weaver expects to make feature-back type money.  The Eagles are not going to, and should not, spend that kind of money on a FB.  There are some solid players available in the draft that could fill this need.  Or the Eagles could continue to go with a tandem of Dan Klecko and Kyle Ekel.  I know that is not a popular sentiment, but remember that toward the end of the season, the Eagles converted 74% of their third and short situations.  That was dramatic improvement.  Was it an aberration?  Possibly.  I am not advoicating that the Eagles use this tandem, but only that the situation is not so dire they need to out and spend big money.  Instead, I”d like to see the Eagles add a body via the draft for competition if Weaver won”t sign at a reasonable price.

What do you think about the Eagles moves leading up to the NFL draft?  Is the team done for the time being or is there something brewing?

In case you haven”t heard by now, the rumor mill is churning with the notion that the Cardinals are actively shopping Anquan Boldin.  Of course, Eagles fans are salivating at the prospects of adding Boldin to their wide receiving corps. 

 I wrote here yesterday that I am skeptical the Eagles will be able to land the coveted Cardinals receiver.  If this news is true, it removes one major barrier to getting a done deal and I would soften my stance a bit.  But for a minute, let’’s allow ourselves to dream and suppose that Boldin is there for the taking.  How much would you be willing to pay for his services?  It’’s a reasonable question, as the other most likely suitor appears to be the New York Giants.  The Eagles will likely have to overpay to get Boldin in midnight Green and keep him out of the grasp of a division foe.

So what will it take?  The Eagles have two first round picks and are sitting on a boatload of cash.  This means they can manufacture a package that gets Boldin to Philadelphia AND the new deal he craves.  The Giants on the other hand do not have the same number or quality of picks in their arsenal and are working against some cap constraints.  The Eagles are in the stronger negotiating position by far.  But again I ask, how much would you pay for Boldin?

By any measure, Anquan Boldin is a better player than Roy Williams.  The Dallas Cowboys gave up a 1^st, 3^rd and 6^th round pick to bring him to Dallas.  Granted, at the time, most experts felt the Cowboy overpaid.  So using that as a benchmark; would you give up the same package? 

I would.  If the Eagles gave up that package, they still have enough picks to get quality players at TE, RB and OT. IF the Eagles get involved in the talks for Anquan Boldin, they need to carefully consider how it impacts other areas of need this team faces.  I have said many times that WR is NOT this team’’s biggest need—despite the common refrain from most of the fan base,  If getting Boldin impacts the Eagles ability to address other, more pressing areas of need they should not pull the trigger.

 What do you think?  What kind of package would you give up to get Boldin?

Many Eagles fans, on this blog and elsewhere, have expressed frustration over the lack of activity out of the front office so far this season.  And the moves the Eagles did make, the signing of Stacy Andrews and Sean Jones, are being overshadowed by the ones they didn”t—Brian Dawkins and Tra Thomas.  Philadelphia fans are not known for their patience and certainly are not showing it right now.

But is there something looming to change that rising tide of frustration?  Are the Eagles really just executing against a grand plan, acting as puppeteers and pulling on the strings of Philadelphia? 

Recently, there has been speculation from the likes of SI, ESPN, local Eagle-insider Gary Cobb and Don”t Boo the Birds (among others) that the Eagles are planning on making some big moves leading up to or during the draft.  The evidence to support this claim is apparent.  The Eagles have been getting younger at a startling pace, while stockpiling draft picks and keeping a stack of money locked away in a vault.  It seems they are priming themselves for a run at some big name players via trade or a quick move up the draft board. 

Of course, most Eagles fans would like to see Anquan Boldin don an Eagles uniform next season.  I share in that sentiment, but it still seems unlikely to me at this juncture.  NFL pundits like John Clayton and Peter King seem unable to fathom a scenario where Bolden is not moved.  They must have short memories because I recall a plethora of articles about this time last year making the same claims about Larry Fitzgerald and we all know how that squabble ended.  The Boldin situation is different, but it still seems like a remote possibility that the Eagles land him via a trade.  I hope I”m wrong on this.

Another name that has been floated out there is Jason Peters—the disgruntled left tackle of the Buffalo Bills.  From a football standpoint, an aggressive move to get Peters makes a lot of sense.  He is already a Pro Bowl player and is verging on the status of perennial Pro Bowler.  If you are Donovan McNabb, you can”t ask for much better protection for your blind side.  But again, this seems unlikely to happen.  For starters, the Bills and Peters are currently talking.  Translated a different way, the discussions are not so sour at this point that the relationship is beyond repair. The Bills have also cleared significant cap space with the express purpose of keeping Peter happy.  It seems like Peters will get his money—just not with the Eagles.

I think it is far more likely that the Eagles use their picks to move up the draft board and get a guy they covet—perhaps a player like Brandon Pettigrew. 

So maybe the Eagles do have a grand plan and we are just all in the dark.  They are sitting at a high-stakes table right now and have as many chips as any of their negotiating partners.  But in this game, it feels like the Eagles are playing a fool’’s game.  After all, the house always wins.

Quick Free Agent Update: The Eagles signed Rashad Baker today from the Oakland Raiders.  He is a relatively small safety with solid coverage skills but questionable run support ability.  Baker is also the Oakland Raider safety that came up with the interception that sent the Eagles to the playoffs in 2008.

In addition to the news on Baker, reports have been circulating that the Eagles are interested in Leonard Weaver.  A few weeks back I mentioned Weaver as a potential target for the Birds.  He is a young fullback that is still developing at the position.  He was drafted as a tight end but moved to FB and has blossomed in the role.  He is not a potent lead blocker but definitely a capable one.  His best attribute is that he is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield—a nice weapon to have in the West Coast offense.  If the Eagles complete the deal, it’’s a solid move that adds versatility to their offense and some much needed help in short yardage situations.

The Eagles filled one of the voids on their roster today by signing free agent safety Sean Jones to a one year contract.  Jones, 27, was a second round draft pick out of Georgia by the Cleveland Browns in 2004, and started the last 3 seasons at strong safety.  His breakout year was 2006, when he recorded 111 tackles and 5 interceptions.  Jones has recorded the third highest interception total in the NFL at the safety position over the last 3 seasons with 14.  He had his knee scoped early on in the 2008 season which caused him to miss 4 games early in that season.

It is still unclear as to what position Jones will play for the Eagles.  According to him, he was told there will be an open competition in training camp.  At 6’1”, 225 ponds, Jones has the size to play down in the box, and he obviously has the ball hawking abilities of a free safety.  The Eagles may play Jones at free safety if he beats out Quintin Demps for the job, or they may slide Quintin Mikell to the free safety position and play Jones at the strong safety.  Jones stated at his press conference this afternoon that he was “interchangeable” between the two positions.  He described his playing style as someone who is a “ball hawk”, but who also enjoys playing down in the box and hitting people.  He will be transitioning from the 3-4 scheme of the Browns to a 4-3 with the Eagles, but said that won’t be a problem at all for him.

The only thing I found somewhat curious was the one year deal versus a multi year deal.  But, if Jones plays well that will all work itself out.  Overall, I think it was a good move by the Eagles.

At 12:01AM this morning, the NFL free agency period officially began. It is hard to stay patient, but things can happen from one minute to the next. So, I wanted to rake the opportunity to take a look at what has happened so far with the Eagles. It is just about 11Am as I am writing this, so use that as I guideline. I am heading out of town for the rest of the day, so I will not be able to update on my computer.

DAWKINS

I am going to star this post off with a negative (Big shocker!). When the clock struck midnight this morning, B Dawk became an unrestricted free agent. It’s hard for me to even type those words. I admit that I have no idea what the discussions were between Dawkins’ side and the Eagles. What I do know is that Dawkins has said repeatedly that he wants to be an Eagle. He wants one more contract before he retires. I find it hard to believe that he was asking for a ridiculous amount of money from the Eagles. So, how the hell is now a free agent? That just can’t happen! If he somehow ends up ending his career in another uniform it will be heart-breaking.

OFFENSIVE LINE

I think everybody knows that the offensive line is the position of greatest need. What we didn’t know is what the Eagles plan might be. It seemed for awhile that the plan was going to be to bring back Tra Thomas as a start, and then add to the line through free agency or the draft or both. Tra Thomas may still end up back with the Eagles, but it’s obvious now that they have not offered him a contract close to what he would like. In the meantime, it looks as though the Eagles plan to retool the offensive line may be getting clearer. It has been reported that the Eagles have signed Stacy Andrews, the older brother of Shawn Andrews. The deal is obviously pending a physical, and Stacy Andrews is coming off of ACL surgery. Maybe this signing will help keep Shawn Andrews’ head in the right place. The Eagles may end up sliding Shawn out to the right tackle position and having Stacy play inside. That would be 700 pounds of dude on the right side. Also, for a few days now it seems that the Eagles have had Ravens center Jason Brown on their radar. If they were able to sign Brown (who can play both center and guard), then it would seem that the offensive line reconstruction would be complete. They would have either Thomas (if they resigned him) or Herremans at left tackle, Brown or Jean-Giles at left guard, Jackson or Brown at center, and the Andrews brothers manning the right side. Not bad, but it hasn’t all happened yet. Keep in mind that the offensive line position is pretty loaded in this year’s draft as well.

BUCKHALTER

The running back position has officially become a desperate need for the Eagles. The indications are that Correll Buckhalter will be joining the Broncos. I have no idea what the Eagles are planning to do. They could look at Derrick Ward, but my guess is he will want to be a starter somewhere. I think their best bet would be to address the need for a big back/successor to Westbrook through the draft. There are quite a few running backs I like coming out, and at least one of them should be available to the Eagles in the draft. I’m sure there are varying opinions out there, but personally I love McCoy from Pitt. He is not a huge back like Wells, but I just think he is going to be a beast.

ANTONIO SMITH??

Supposedly the Eagles are interested in the defensive end from the Cardinals. I have no idea why personally. It would be nice to add a defensive end, but if the Eagles were going to do that it should be someone like a Julius Peppers. I know that’s off the table, I just mean a stud defensive end. We went through this last year by paying way too much money for Chris Clemons. I’m not sure why the Birds, with all the other pressing needs they have to fill, would use up money on a defensive end that had 3.5 sacks last year.

HOUSH WATCH

My gut tells me the Eagles are not going to take a serious run at Housh. Do I think he would be a huge addition to the offense? I do. I just don’t think the Eagles are willing to pay him the money that he will be asking. As I write this, Housh is apparently on a plane to visit Seattle, so stay tuned there. I would actually prefer adding Boldin (who wouldn’t?), but unless the Cardinals want to make a trade, that won’t be happening. But, let’s say the Eagles don’t get Houshmandzadeh, but they have retooled the line as we layed out, drafted a good running back, signed a fullback (which I think they will do), and somehow swung a trade for Tony Gonzalez. Would you take that? I would. We know the Eagles talked to the Chiefs about Gonzalez last season, so maybe they go after him again.

That’s about it at the moment, although, as soon as I post this other stuff will probably happen. I like the addition of Andrews to the line, but there is a lot more to be done if Eagles fans are going to be satisfied. The next few days will go along way into showing us what the Eagles offseason and draft plans are. Oh, and a quick memo from Eagles fans straight to the front office: SIGN BRIAN DAWKINS!!!!!!!!!!!

In case you haven’t heard, there are quite a few sources reporting that the Marvin Harrison era could be over in Indianapolis.  The reports say that the Colts and Harrison have been in discussions regarding a restructuring of Harrison’s 6 year, $66 million contract that was signed in 2004. Well, it seems they could not come to an agreement, and Harrison has asked to be released.  The Colts don’t have to release Harrison, but it looks as if the team is struggling with the salary cap and may not be willing to take Harrison’s huge cap hit. 

Of course, all this leads to a lot of talk in the Philadelphia area, because whenever there is a receiver that becomes available, the discussions start.  It is an annual thing for Eagles fans to be pining for the front office to bring in a #1 receiver.  When they finally did that, and brought in the jackass (sorry I just have issues with the dude) that now plays for the Cowgirls, it lead to their only trip to the Super Bowl in the last 28 years.  We all know how that saga ended.  The fact remains that Eagles fans love to debate the wide receiver situation.  I can’t say that I disagree with the argument that the Eagles have long been lacking in talent at that position.  The names Charles Johnson, Torrance Small, Todd Pinkston, Reggie Brown, Freddie Mitchell, etc are not going to strike fear in too many defensive backfields.  It’s really a shame when you think about it.  Say what you want about McNabb’s late game capabilities and all the other flaws that a lot of Eagles fans love to shout about, but for his entire career he has been one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL.  Yet, for really only one season was he given a top notch receiver, and he produced the best year of his career.  It’s always been baffling to me that Andy Reid, who believes so much in throwing the football, and came from a long line of West Coast offensive minds, has tried to make the argument that the Eagles haven’t needed a #1 guy.  Name me any of the successful teams that ran that offense, and didn’t have a stud receiver.  The Niners had Rice and Taylor, the Packers had Sharpe and Freeman, and on and on it goes.  With all due respect to Kevin Curtis and Desean Jackson…no, screw that…they couldn’t hold the jock straps of any of the aforementioned receivers.  Unfortunately, I have strayed off topic a little bit here.  My mind has a tendency to do that.  The point I was making is that some teams can get away with not having a true #1 guy, but not the Eagles.  Not in Andy’s Reid’s system where they continually throw the ball 60% of the time and use the passing game in almost every crucial situation.  In that type of system, how are you going to feed me Todd Pinkston, and expect me to not throw up?

All of that leads me back to Marvin Harrison (round and round we go, Jack).  There is no way to be certain that he will become available at this point.  The question is, if he does become available, should the Eagles try to reunite him with his college teammate McNabb?  If this was 4 years ago, there would only be one answer.  But, Harrison is coming off an injury plagued 2007, followed by the worst statistical season of his illustrious career.  Not to mention those pesky investigations surrounding Harrison and a shooting.  I’ve listened to quite a few NFL analysts who feel he still has something left in the tank.  So, should the Eagles go after Harrison if he becomes available?  At first glance, most people would probably say no, especially with names like Houshmandzadeh, Boldin, Ocho Cinco, and receivers coming out of college floating out there.  But, my question is, what if the Eagles weren’t able to get any of those names?  What if they completely struck out?  If you feel that the Eagles need to upgrade their receiving core, even if it’s just a little bit, then would you sign Harrison?  Well, Harrison missed one game last year, and ended the year with 60 catches for 636 yards and 5 touchdowns.  Nothing to write home about, I know.  Although, we should remember, the Colts do have a guy named Reggie Wayne and an up and coming Anthony Gonzalez to throw the ball to.  Kevin Curtis played in 9 games and had 33 catches for 390 yards and 2 touchdowns.  Those are pretty much identical to Harrison’s numbers over a full season.  Jackson played every game and ended with 62 catches for 912 yards and 2 touchdowns.  I think Jackson will obviously get better and better with experience.  Jason Avant had 32 catches for 377 yards and 2 touchdowns.  I guess my point is, I don’t think Harrison should be the target of the Eagles, but if they are unable to bring in any of the other receivers that we all covet, why wouldn’t they consider it?  If he truly does have a couple more years in his legs, and I think he does, how is he not an upgrade?  Let’s assume for a second that they can’t bring a receiver in, and that no one they draft at the position would contribute right away.  You tell me which receiving core looks better: Curtis, Jackson, Avant, Brown, Baskett, Lewis or Curtis, Jackson, Harrison, Avant, and whoever the hell else.  I mean, the Eagles didn’t even want Brown on the field!  I am in no way advocating that the Birds make Harrison a priority if he is released by the Colts, but I think it’s an interesting debate if he is available and they have not made any changes at all at the WR position.  What do you think?

Since my brother posted his thoughts on the big game, I will quickly focus on the other 3 wild card weekend games, and then unveil my thoughts on the Birds tomorrow morning.  I know the world doesn’t want to wait that long, but, I make the decisions around here.  If you are a betting man, it is a scary weekend, with all 4 road teams being favored.  Many people are predicting all 4 to win on the road as well.  Usually in the playoffs, we see at least one match up where a warm weather or dome team is forced to go on the road in a cold weather game.  Not this weekend.  Games will be played in Arizona, San Diego (pretty ridiculous that an 8-8 team hosts a playoff game), Miami, and, of course, in a dome in Minnesota.  Not exactly the frozen tundra.  It should make for an interesting weekend.  Let’s get to the picks.

Atlanta (+1) at Arizona

Well, as of 2PM Eastern time according to Vegas.com, the Cardinals are favored.  Either way, a 1 point home favorite is not a favorite.  The popular pick here is Atlanta.  Although, there are some who feel that even though Matt Ryan had an amazing rookie year, he will falter in his first playoff experience.  Normally I would agree, however Matt Ryan gets to face the Cardinals.  Let’s be real here.  Although the Cardinals won their division and are hosting their first home game since about World War II, they also had the benefit of playing in the worst division possibly in the history of the sport.  The Cardinals defense is horrible, just ask the Eagles.  The Cardinals have been on cruise control for weeks now, and usually it is hard for a team to turn the intensity switch on and execute the way they need to, especially for a perennial loser like Arizona.  The one thing that the Cardinals have in their favor is a Super Bowl MVP winning quarterback.  Kurt Warner has a great receiving core, but absolutely no running game.  Speaking of running game, the Falcons will take the pressure off of Matt Ryan by pounding the football with Michael Turner.  The longer the Falcons stay on the field, the less chances Warner will have.  I think the Falcons will only ask Ryan to manage the game and make a few plays on third down and take care of the football.  The game will be close but this one goes to the road team with the rookie quarterback.

FALCONS 24-17

Indianapolis (-1 ½) at San Diego

In my opinion, the Chargers have no business being in the playoffs, let alone hosting a game.  Just like the Cardinals, they benefited from playing in a crappy division.  I realize that in sports you play who is on your schedule, so using that logic the Colts are riding a 9 game winning streak, and the Chargers are riding a 4 game winning streak.  I have watched both these teams play quite a bit and am not impressed by either one.  The Chargers 4 game win streak consisted of Oakland, Kansas City, and 2 floundering teams in Tampa and Denver.  Not too impressive to me.  The Colts win streak is more impressive, however they did have wins over 4 of the leagues worst teams in Detroit, Cleveland, Jacksonville, and Cincinnati.  Currently, Ladanian Tomlinson is a game time decision which makes this an even easier pick for me.  Neither team brings a great defense to the table.  I look for about 40 passes by both Rivers and Manning, and with Manning clicking the way he is right now, I just think this an easy pick.  The Colts are the better team.  It will be close in the first half, and then the Colts will go for the jugular.

COLTS 31-17

Baltimore (-3 ½ ) at Miami

These are two solid, well coached football teams.  I have never thought of Miami as having a great home field advantage, but this will still be a huge test for Flacco.  I think unlike Ryan’s match up with Arizona’s defense, the Dolphins will create problems for Flacco and he will play like a rookie QB in his first playoff game.  This will likely be defensive struggle.  Pennington’s strength is that he does not turn the ball over, and if he can manage to continue that trend against the stifling Ravens defense, I think the Dolphins will have a few short field opportunities on offense due to Ravens miscues.  The Ravens will likely try and pound the ball with McGahee and McClain all day.  I just have a hunch that the Dolphins will make more plays in this one and pull out a close victory at home.

 Dolphins 16-13

So there you have it.  This is a great time of year for football fans, unless you live in Detroit.  Like I said earlier, I will let you know my pick on the Birds tomorrow morning, but let’s just say that I think we will have a chance to see the rubber match against Big Blue.